Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is accustomed to getting beaten by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but his last sliver of hope is now also disappearing.
The opposition leader may have succeeded in forcing the incumbent president into his first-ever runoff, but his chances of winning on May 28 are remote. Kılıçdaroğlu was predicted to perform well in Sunday's first round by some pollsters but ended up with just under 45%. Likewise, Erdoğan fell fractionally short of the 50% threshold required for an outright victory.
His six-party alliance now needs to accomplish seemingly impossible electoral gymnastics to unseat Erdoğan, who needs a slight boost to extend his two decades in power, either as prime minister or president, to 2028.
"The second round will be easier for us," Presidential Spokesperson Ibrahim Kalın said Tuesday. "There is a difference of five points, close to 2.5 million votes. So it seems there is no possibility of this closing."
Mobilizing more young voters could boost Kılıçdaroğlu's prospects, with some polls suggesting he will win that group by a two-to-one margin. More than 5 million first-time voters, who grew up knowing no leader other than Erdoğan, were eligible to vote on Sunday and are deemed more likely to want change. Kılıçdaroğlu, a 74-year-old former civil servant, tried to revive his campaign on Tuesday with a message targeted at young people. "You can't afford anything. You even have to think about a cup of coffee. Your joy of life has been stolen, whereas youth is carefree," he said on Twitter. "They didn't give you that even for a day." But the high price of coffee amid inflation may not be enough to win the hearts of the youth as they also enjoyed an improvement in the state's services to the youth in the past two decades, from new, modern dormitories to university students to more loans and freedom to wear the headscarf at universities.
Kılıçdaroğlu had also courted the Kurdish voters but came under fire when he aligned himself with the maligned Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), which is known for its ties to the PKK terrorist group, which claims to fight for Kurdish self-rule. But Sunday's turnout in provinces where the HDP had strong support was believed to hover around 80%, well below the national average of almost 89%. Although he positioned himself with the nationalist Good Party (IP) in the opposition bloc, Kılıçdaroğlu appears to be losing appeal with nationalist and conservative voters for receiving the support of a pro-PKK party.
Sinan Oğan, a nationalist third candidate, picked up 5% of the vote and his support could be crucial in the second round. Oğan campaigned vigorously against terrorism, adhering to a similar campaign by Erdoğan.
The disparate six-party opposition alliance, which only selected Kılıçdaroğlu as their joint candidate after a year of bitter argument, now also faces the challenge of staying united after Sunday's disappointment.
"Erdoğan will have an easier time than Kılıçdaroğlu wooing voters," especially Ogan's backers, Emre Peker of the Eurasia Group consultancy told Agence France-Presse (AFP). "The president's supporters are also likely to turn out in greater numbers to vote in the runoff than Kılıçdaroğlu backers as opposition ... momentum ebbs."