Under the current Constitution, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will not be eligible for the next presidential election. When the president highlighted this fact during a meeting with the youth last week, it started a debate over his eligibility for nomination in the 2028 elections.
Erdoğan termed the March 31 municipal elections his "finale," the outcome would be the "transfer of what we are entrusted to our brothers and sisters who will succeed me."
The president has occasionally referred to the temporary nature of his tenure in Türkiye's highest office, but this was the first time he had openly spoken about it.
As prime minister and president, 70-year-old Erdoğan has helmed Türkiye for more than two decades, the longest-serving politician in either role. He also led Türkiye's switch to an executive presidency system and became the first such president when the public directly elected him in the 2018 elections. He was reelected to the office in the May 2023 elections. Under Article 101 of the Turkish Constitution, the president's tenure is limited to five years and they can be reelected only for two consecutive tenures.
Erdoğan has two options now to have a chance of reelection, and both seem hindered by insurmountable challenges, at least for now. One option involves the amendment of the Constitution. However, for an amendment without the requirement of a public referendum, Erdoğan will need 400 votes in Parliament. Erdoğan's ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and its main ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), retain 313 seats in Parliament as part of the People's Alliance. The alliance may expand its votes to 322 at the Parliament, but they will require the support of parties that endorsed the alliance at the 2023 general elections, only to chart their own course for local elections.
The other option is based on the current Constitution, which says the president can be nominated again if Parliament approves a renewal of elections in his/her second tenure. It is possible under Article 116, but three-fifths of the parliamentary majority is required for this, too. In other words, Erdoğan will need the vote of 360 lawmakers. This means he will have to rally the opposition lawmakers for an early election that may give him another tenure or end up in a defeat. His unprecedented success in consecutive elections may still give him an upper hand in any election, but the municipal elections may be decisive in the political future of Erdoğan. The municipal vote is the first critical test for the AK Party since the 2023 general election. It is also an opportunity to regain key municipalities it lost to the opposition in 2019, namely Ankara and Istanbul.
Reactions to Erdoğan's statement were mixed, with his main rival, Özgür Özel, chair of the Republican People's Party (CHP), claiming it was Erdoğan's attempt "to change the rhetoric" in the election campaign. "He said the same thing in 2018, 2019 and 2023," Özel claimed on Sunday. The statement may also reflect the desperation of the CHP, which lost most elections to Erdoğan and the AK Party in more than two decades. Özel himself is in hot water among his party's dissidents over his choice of mayoral candidates.
For the AK Party, Erdoğan's statement was nothing new, but Mustafa Elitaş, deputy chair of the AK Party, says as political entities, they would take action if the public raises its voice to extend Erdoğan's tenure. "Certainly, we want to continue under our leader until death," Elitaş said at an event in the central province of Kırşehir over the weekend.
"We are proud to be a colleague of a leader who taught us politics, a leader who embraces the public and wins the hearts, a leader who is probably unique in history for the number of elections he won. Mr. President's accomplishments will go down in the history of the Republic of Türkiye," he said.
Born in 1954 in a modest neighborhood of Istanbul, Erdoğan was elected mayor of the city years later after a political career in the Welfare Party (RP) and National Salvation Party (MSP). His election was a turning point in the political life of Erdoğan, who had already made his mark on the political scene as a fiery orator in his youth. In the years he served as mayor, he turned around Istanbul's fortunes after years of chronic problems, from water shortages to pollution and traffic chaos. His legacy as mayor helped propel him to the forefront in the 2002 elections, where his party won a landslide victory, the first in years after a long period of coalition governments. Since then, the AK Party has run the country after successive election victories. Erdoğan rose to the Presidency from the Prime Ministry in the past two decades and introduced the executive presidency system.
Before the 2023 elections, Erdoğan faced claims by the opposition bloc, who said he could not run in the upcoming elections. Still, legal experts shot down the claims based on the two-term limit enshrined in the Constitution Erdoğan allegedly violated. The opposition highlighted that he was elected president in 2014 and 2018 and, therefore, is not eligible for the 2023 elections. Article 3 of Türkiye's Presidential Election Law says that if the Turkish Grand National Assembly decides to renew elections in a president's second term, they may stand for reelection again.
