In a political upheaval that sent shock waves through Türkiye, the major opposition bloc, the Nation Alliance, has found itself blindsided by an unexpected groundswell of support during the recent election.

Voters' clear support for ideas that differed from those promoted by the opposition revealed a profound misjudgment on their part. Although the surge of public sentiment did not fully align with the government-led People's Alliance, it unmistakably favored the ruling front over the opposition.

On May 14, the closely watched contest for the top office in Ankara saw President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, main challenger Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and right-wing Sinan Oğan battling it out for victory. However, none of them managed to reach the necessary 50%-plus votes for an outright win in the initial round.

Official results announced by the country's election body, the Supreme Election Council (YSK), revealed Erdoğan with 49.52%, Kılıçdaroğlu with 44.88% and Oğan with 5.17%.

Türkiye is now scheduled to hold a runoff election on May 28, pitting the incumbent president against Kılıçdaroğlu, the chairperson of the Republican People's Party (CHP), the strongest opposition against Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party).

Both candidates are highly dependent on Oğan's support base, given the substantial difference of over 2.5 million votes between them, while the latter alone garnered more than 2.8 million votes.

At the age of 55, Oğan is a nationalist politician who served as the candidate for the ATA Alliance, a coalition with a prominent agenda of restoring the country to its foundational principles. Their primary objective involves addressing the presence of approximately 3.4 million Syrian refugees in Türkiye, with a focus on repatriation.

According to Daily Sabah’s opinion editor, Burcu Başaran, Oğan "casts himself as a potential kingmaker." Many call him a "game changer" now.

Experts, responding to inquiries from Daily Sabah, have highlighted that Oğan's case is part of the unexpected and miscalculated groundswell – a sudden and significant rise in public support – that prevented both Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu from securing a first-round victory.

Political foundation

Cemil Doğaç Ipek, an expert on Turkish and international politics, highlighted that the Turkish nation has emphatically expressed the enduring significance of Turkish nationalism as "the political foundation," just as it was during the establishment and first century of the republic, even in its second century.

Ipek referred to the commemoration of Türkiye's second century since its foundation in 1923. In line with this milestone, Erdoğan's campaign was titled "Century of Türkiye," while Kılıçdaroğlu's campaign was titled "Call to the Second Century."

According to Ipek, a Ph.D. holder and researcher, the results of the recent elections have solidified the perception that the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), a nationalist and patriotic party, is seen as "the unwavering guardian" of this political foundation.

The ideology of nationalism in Türkiye differs from the common nationalist ideas that emerged after the French Revolution. Rather than being based on race or other discriminatory factors, Türkiye's nationalism centers around defending national sovereignty, embracing cultural diversity within a united country, safeguarding against foreign interference, and strengthening the state.

Aligned with the MHP, Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AK Party) also espouses a similar version of nationalism with conservative inclinations. While addressing the conservative and religiously devout segments of society, the ruling party also incorporates the principles of "MHP nationalism," leading to the formation of the People's Alliance between the two parties.

Ipek stated, "The robust presence of the People's Alliance in Parliament and the overwhelming support received by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, surpassing the predictions of all research institutions, signify the Turkish nation's trust in the People's Alliance, the vision of 'Century of Türkiye' and its policies."

The expert, based in the southeastern city of Diyarbakır, emphasized, "The Turkish nation has unequivocally rejected the covert alliance forged with the political representative of the PKK terrorist organization," pointing to the Nation Alliance led by the CHP and its cooperation with the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), a political party criticized for its ties to PKK terrorists.

"It is evident that the rhetoric, promises and structure of the Nation Alliance do not resonate with the people of Anatolia," he asserted.

İpek also underscored the "subjectivity and flawed analysis of international media and national research institutions" when it comes to Turkish elections. "Their pre-election publications and surveys have failed to accurately understand the Turkish nation; instead, they have resorted to manipulation," he concluded.

Nation-first concepts

Samuel Doveri Vesterbye, managing director at the European Neighbourhood Council (ENC), said, "An independent Türkiye, the concept of Pan-Turkism, the PKK threat, defense accomplishments and other 'nation-first or revisionist concepts' are likely to dominate the next two weeks' election debate since they clearly appeal to Turkish electorates."

The Brussels-based expert specializing in Türkiye, Central Asia and the Middle East refrained to predict exactly how round two will turn out.

"However," he said, "it's clear that the opposition and government will increase their nationalistic rhetoric to win over Oğan's voters. The CHP goes into the next round with a loss of momentum, which favors Erdoğan."

Vesterbye's comments to Daily Sabah came just moments before Erdoğan's rival delivered his inaugural public address following the landmark election. During his speech, Kılıçdaroğlu significantly intensified his message, adopting a more assertive and nationalist tone as a key element of his new strategy.

"I will send all the refugees home as soon as I come to power," he declared, vehemently condemning the Turkish president for "intentionally facilitating the influx of over 10 million refugees into the nation."

Holder of a MA in Middle Eastern and Central Asian Security Studies from the University of St. Andrews, Vesterbye said, "Türkiye witnessed a resurgence of nationalism that favored the far right and center-right parties like Erdoğan's AK Party both in Parliament and for the Presidency."

"According to the (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) OSCE monitoring mission, the elections were deemed competitive, despite its many challenges. The next election round on May 28 will test whether Erdoğan or Kılıçdaroğlu will be able to attract the more nationalistic and anti-migration vote from Oğan."

During his remarks, Vesterbye delved into a topic he found "sociologically interesting," stating "economy matters less than identity."

"Erdoğan continues to retain high levels of popularity among both his traditional electorate, as well as among nationalists. He is popular because he provides easy and popular solutions in times of crisis, war and high levels of international uncertainty."

Vesterbye expressed: "The opposition led a strong campaign, and several pollsters put Kılıçdaroğlu as the winning candidate. However, the reality on May 14 proved to be different."

Are polls accurate?

For Koert Debeuf, the director of the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy (TIMEP) Europe and visiting research fellow at the University of Oxford, another hindrance to capturing the groundswell is the country's inaccurate polling.

"Polls in Türkiye are not accurate," he stated, attributing this inaccuracy to factors that can mislead political party administrations.

"Turkish parties know this problem. That is why they have their own internal polls, as does every major party in Belgium," Debeuf, a former advisor and spokesperson of the prime minister of Belgium, said and added, "Yet still, they failed."

The Belgian expert visited Istanbul in the days leading up to the historic election and engaged with his contacts in the metropolis. "According to my contacts, those internal polls showed much smaller than what the public polls suggested," he expressed.

"The expected huge turnout number made opposition supporters hope that this would play to their advantage. But, the opposite appears to be true."

With the dust settling on the first electoral battlefield, analysts and pundits are questioning the reliability of opinion polls, as the vast majority of pollsters missed the mark, triggering a wave of criticism from all sides. Their failure to accurately predict the outcome has dealt a severe blow to their reputation and has left many questioning their methodology and credibility.

For weeks leading up to the election, pollsters had painted a picture of a country dissatisfied with Erdoğan's leadership. The struggling economy, marked by soaring inflation and a cost-of-living crisis had seemingly eroded his popularity among the Turkish electorate. Moreover, devastating earthquakes that had recently struck the nation further added to the perception that Erdoğan's grip on power was slipping. But, their depiction of the situation failed.

According to Debeuf, "Although quake survivors were angry with Erdoğan immediately after the massive devastation, this appeared to have reversed in the days that followed."

"These people believed Erdoğan's promise to rebuild their homes and would therefore choose security over the uncertainty of the opposition."

Monica Ricci Sargentini, a journalist at the foreign editorial board of Corriere della Sera, a prominent Italian newspaper, echoed Debeuf’s polls reaction, saying, "Polls made predictions that turned out to be wrong and this increased the disappointment among opposition voters."

The Italian journalist, who arrived in Istanbul to closely track the elections, believes that the current situation in the runoff is unlikely to be reversed. She noted that the apparent groundswell is likely to favor the candidate of the People's Alliance.

"In Türkiye, there are two political factions: one that views Erdoğan as the sole leader capable of guiding the country, while the other calls for a change after 20 years under the same leader, especially in light of the ongoing economic crisis," the experienced journalist said.

As highlighted by experts, Turkish citizens sought leaders who would adopt a firm stance against perceived Western imposition, fostering a sense of national self-reliance and autonomy. This sentiment, underestimated by the opposition, propelled candidates who championed an assertive approach toward Western powers.

When compared to the People’s Alliance, the opposition coalition now faces the arduous task of recalibrating their platforms and policies to resonate with the nationalist, anti-Western and pro-security expectations of the electorate.