Two surveys held at an interval of two weeks will likely put a smile on the face of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, as he runs for another term, this time against an apparently stronger opposition.

The latest poll by the Areda survey company was conducted between April 12-14 and with 10,136 people. It follows another carried out by the same company between March 28 and April 1. Erdoğan will win 50.8% of the vote, according to the survey, while Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the candidate of the main opposition bloc, may garner 43.1% of the vote. The two men are far ahead of Muharrem İnce, the only candidate without the backing of the alliance, who would win 4.5% of the vote, according to the survey. Sinan Oğan, a far-right candidate, remains at 1.6%.

Interviewees also overwhelmingly supported Erdoğan in the case of a two-round election. Erdoğan was their favorite, at 52.6%, when they answered who they would vote for in a possible second round. Kılıçdaroğlu also increased his vote in the survey regarding a two-round election and 47.4% of the interviewees said they would support him in the second round. The latest survey shows a 0.2% increase in Erdoğan’s vote compared to March 28-April 1 survey.

Meanwhile, Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party) secured 40.4% of the vote in the survey, ahead of 25.5% for the Republican People’s Party (CHP) of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. The Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which is viewed as the kingmaker in the election, comes third in the survey with 10.3% of the vote, although its candidates will run under the name of the Green Left Party (YSP) in the upcoming elections amid risk of a court-sanctioned closure of the party.

The HDP earlier implied it would endorse Kılıçdaroğlu in the presidential election while it will field its own candidates in the simultaneous parliamentary elections. The Good Party (IP), the major partner of the CHP in the opposition bloc, trailed behind the HDP at 7.6%.

In the meantime, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), the main ally of the AK Party in the People’s Alliance would win 8.8% of the vote according to Areda’s survey. Muharrem Ince’s Homeland Party (MP) follows the IP in the survey, with 3.1%. Other partners in the People’s Alliance, the New Welfare Party (YRP) and the Great Union Party (BBP), have 1.6% and 0.3% of the vote respectively, while the anti-refugee, anti-migrant Victory Party (ZP), new to the political scene, appears to garner 1% of the vote.

Another poll, by the Metropoll survey company, sheds light on the rate of "undecided" voters, a segment of the society all parties seek to court. This segment, largely comprised of supporters of political parties disillusioned by their policies, may still carry the AK Party to power in May 14 elections after more than two decades in office. The AK Party will win only 35% of the vote without the inclusion of the "undecided" vote, according to the Metropoll survey, while this rate rises to 40.1% with the inclusion.

This is the first election since Türkiye held its first multiparty elections (again on another May 14, some 73 years ago) in which such a high number of alliances will compete. Although the partnerships were born out of necessity for the opposition, which has repeatedly failed against Erdoğan and the AK Party, the AK Party has also found new allies in its People’s Alliance over the years.

Unlike the opposition alliance, whose sole aim is to end the lengthy AK Party governance, the People’s Alliance claims its unity is for the sake of unity itself for Türkiye’s interests.

Erdoğan is running as the presidential candidate for the People’s Alliance, or "Cumhur İttifakı" as it is known in Turkish. "Cumhur" here is derived from "cumhurbaşkanı," or "president of people" in Turkish, and refers to the formal title of the president. Under Erdoğan, the AK Party gained a parliamentary majority in the 2002 elections by winning more than 34% of the vote, a surprising result for a party new to the political scene. Erdoğan led the AK Party to more victories in local and general elections in the ensuing years. He is a formidable rival to presidential contenders who are not as seasoned as Erdoğan, who survived a coup attempt and multiple attempts to close down his party. He now hopes to succeed again against opposition as united as ever.

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is the main challenger of Erdoğan. Kılıçdaroğlu did not see any success at all in politics, except for succeeding the late Deniz Baykal in 2010 as leader of the CHP.

He is relatively new to the upper echelons of politics and was elected lawmaker the same year the AK Party thrust into the political scene. He is credited with transforming the CHP from a conventional secular party with Kemalist ideology into a more "left-wing" party, alienating old supporters and finding new company and support from more far-left elements in Turkish politics. His attempt to draw the support of the pro-PKK HDP for elections angered voters. Still, thanks to the support of the opposition bloc, Kılıçdaroğlu appears closest to victory for the first time.

Erdoğan’s campaign

The AK Party seems intent on keeping its election campaign low-profile, in the aftermath of the Feb. 6 earthquakes that killed more than 50,000 people in Türkiye’s southeast. Still, campaign rallies will continue, though in a somber mood, minus the traditional campaign songs blared from loudspeakers across the country.

Erdoğan’s appearances so far were limited to inauguration and launch ceremonies for several projects, from groundbreaking for new houses for earthquake victims to the launch of a state-of-art warship. As part of the election agenda, he will hold rallies in 40 out of 81 provinces of Türkiye, according to Sabah newspaper.

The newspaper reported that the party’s campaign will highlight the past services of AK Party governments to the country with promises of "more to come" as part of the "Century of Türkiye" vision Erdoğan announced last year and reiterated in the launch of the party’s election manifesto last week. The campaign will also focus on criticism of the opposition, particularly the divide between the "table for six" and the Nation Alliance led by Kılıçdaroğlu.

The opposition bloc consists of parties wildly different in their political ideologies and small parties founded by former members of the AK Party. The campaign will also highlight apparent support by the terrorist groups, namely the PKK, for the opposition bloc.

Erdoğan is expected to visit two cities every day until the elections for rallies, which will be merged into opening, groundbreaking ceremonies.

The party has a lot to offer in addition to building upon what it has achieved in the past two decades and bringing Türkiye into a better league in the international community. Along that line, the new election manifesto announced by Erdoğan on Tuesday expands the social rights offered to different parts of society.

One outstanding novelty in the election manifesto, which was filled with doable pledges thanks to the AK Party government’s records, is the establishment of the Family and Youth Bank. Funded by the natural gas and oil income of Türkiye, the bank will serve the welfare of the titular groups. "The family" is the highlight of the manifesto, which pledges to leave no household below the minimum living standard. It pledges the establishment of a family support system that will provide what the party called "citizenship salaries" for families.

It also vows financial support for housewives to benefit from pensions just like working women. One-third of premiums housewives should pay to be entitled to pensions will be covered by the state, the manifesto says. For elderly women, the retirement age will be based on the number of children and will be flexible. At least one person from every household will have a job, according to the manifesto.

It also includes incentives, such as the state covering social security premiums of private companies for each employee.

The election manifesto’s chapters entitled "Justice Reform" and "Rights and Freedoms" pledge new reforms in this field and a higher standard of democracy. A "legislative reform" will be brought to life through participatory, pluralistic and transparent efforts, according to the manifesto, which also pledges to revise the Law for Political Parties in a manner emphasizing freedoms. Filing lawsuits for the closure of political parties will be subject to the approval of the Turkish Parliament.

It also pledges to lift the practice of interviews for hiring public sector employees except in security-related jobs, and employees will be hired solely based on the results of the exams they sat for access to public sector jobs.

The AK Party’s other promises include introducing the Public Initiative, which will enable ordinary citizens to propose a new law or appeal to the Constitutional Court for annulment of an existing law if they gather enough signatures in their petitions. An "e-democracy" platform will also be established for the implementation of digital voting and discussion methods.