The Justice and Development Party (AK Party) is shaping its election campaign as it gears up for the March 2024 municipal elections. The Sabah newspaper reported that the party adopted the slogan "true municipalism" for the elections where mayors and members of municipal assemblies will be elected into office in 81 provinces.

The newspaper reported that the first candidates of the ruling party will be unveiled on Dec. 27 and the mayoral candidate for Istanbul, Türkiye’s most populated city, will be announced on Jan. 15.

Some 64 million eligible voters are going back to the polls on March 31, 2024. The campaigning period is set to kick off officially with the new year.

Jan. 15 is the date President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, chair of the AK Party, was formally declared a candidate for mayor’s seat in Istanbul 30 years ago. Erdoğan’s victory in 1994 was his first major accomplishment in the Turkish political scene. His successful tenure as the mayor helped him to earn the public's trust, which was reflected in the AK Party’s landmark win in its first elections more than two decades ago. The party is also expected to announce its election manifesto on that date.

The party’s campaign will concentrate on exposing unfulfilled promises of local election winners from the opposition parties in the 2019 vote. The AK Party partly owes its success to the accomplishments of municipalities it governed for years, from expanded public services to major upgrades to the infrastructure.

The AK Party works with its major ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), for election campaigns and two members of the People’s Alliance are expected to endorse candidates of one party in a given province where the other had less voter support.

Istanbul, as the country's largest city and economic hub, stands as a focal point in Türkiye's political landscape, acting as a stronghold for various political movements. The outcome of the elections is more than the appointment of a mayor; it has the potential to either reinforce existing political dynamics or signify a shift in the broader political balance. The mayor of Istanbul holds a position of considerable influence, impacting local governance and policies with resonance on the national stage.

The nationwide survey and campaign period haven’t kicked off yet; however, as the anticipation builds for the upcoming vote, some surveys have painted a challenging picture for the incumbent mayor, suggesting that the political landscape in the city may be on the brink of change. The surveys reveal a sentiment among city residents that dissatisfaction with various aspects of municipal governance is likely to influence their voting choices.

One of the primary factors contributing to the potential decline in support for Ekrem Imamoğlu is a widespread perception of unaddressed complaints and concerns among Istanbul residents. The city, as vibrant and dynamic as it is, has grappled with a range of issues that have left citizens dissatisfied with the current state of affairs.

During his weekend stay in Istanbul, Erdoğan held crucial meetings with his party's provincial organization, employing a confidential nomination process involving sealed envelopes. The process aimed at seeking the opinions of the party members to determine a candidate that has won the approval of the majority. Following the intra-party poll, Ömer Çelik, spokesperson for the AK Party, addressed the media at the party’s Istanbul headquarters on Sunday. "Towards the end of December, we will unveil the candidates for our metropolitan cities as our election preparations gain momentum following our success in the general elections," he said. Çelik emphasized Erdoğan's commitment to democratic values within the AK Party tradition. "Our chairperson has directed the establishment of various mechanisms to ensure a democratic appeal, and we are actively engaged in activities to fully express the organizational will," Çelik explained. Highlighting the party's commitment to fostering common sense, he added, "We are developing a robust system where each candidate reflects all processes, allowing our members to freely express their preferences without any external influence.

"This political approach sets a precedent for other parties and serves as a model for democratic participation."

Çelik continued, "Political parties should align with the people's agenda, and our efforts aim to make a significant contribution to our nation." He confirmed that the AK Party's election calendar is on track.

Alliance woes

In the meantime, the opposition, which formed an unprecedented coalition of six parties to challenge Erdoğan and the AK Party in last May’s general elections, appears divided on a new alliance for a municipal vote. Answering journalists’ questions on Monday about the opposition’s state ahead of the elections and how it would impact the March polls, Erdoğan said they did not care much about their state. "We concentrate on our work. We have a journey with the People’s Alliance. It continues with MHP and we hold talks with other parties," he said, pointing out his meetings with leaders of the New Welfare Party (YRP) and the Free Cause Party (HÜDA-PAR).

"Our teams are working (to reach out to other parties that supported the People’s Alliance in the May elections)," Erdoğan added. YRP Chair Fatih Erbakan was quoted by Turkish media on Wednesday that they were asked to join the election alliance by other parties in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir, three big cities, and they were still "debating" it.

"Outside these cities, we will field our own candidates," he underlined.

The president said he was also holding talks with party members from across the country, asking them their views on potential candidates. The AK Party earlier held an electronic vote in some cities for its members for candidate selection. Erdoğan and the party’s administrative board will have the final say in the list of candidates. The president stated that the process was working smoothly, "without any brawls," in a pointed reference to infighting in opposition parties over municipal election alliance.

"By God’s will, it will end well," he added.

Infighting over alliances is particularly surfacing in the Good Party (IP). The party, which was a major partner in the six-party election bloc along with the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), has been troubled with a string of resignations and firings. The leadership’s decision to renew an alliance with the CHP in municipal elections led some prominent figures, including lawmakers, to sever ties with the party. Others, such as members of the party in Istanbul’s municipal assembly, were forced to resign when it was revealed that they were in cahoots with the city’s CHP Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu. Akşener was the most fervent supporter of Imamoğlu in the past, but the mayor, nominated again by the CHP for the upcoming vote, fell out with the IP after the alliance was ruled out by Akşener.

After ousting long-standing CHP Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu with Imamoğlu’s strong support, newly elected and relatively untested Özgür Özel mounted a furious effort to win the IP back on their side, but the IP rejected the call earlier this month.

The party’s insistence on competing alone in the local polls has since been pushing deputies, including founding members, away in droves, who believe the IP has very little chance to haul in any significant constituencies in the mayoral election.

Akşener in the past week alone lost two of her aides and closest deputy chairs, who have argued the refusal to team up with the CHP, particularly in Istanbul and Ankara, was going against the popular opinion among party ranks.

She even faced a minor coup on Wednesday when her deputies voted back in his post a member of the Istanbul municipality council whom she forced to resign a day before.

On Friday, Istanbul lawmaker, Salim Ensarioğlu, who helped found the IP and served on its executive board until May, also announced his resignation from the party. He had been referred to the disciplinary board for his remarks about a historical Kurdish figure earlier this week.

Late Thursday, the CHP confirmed Imamoğlu and incumbent Mansur Yavaş would run for reelection next year.

The pair took the two key cities from the AK Party for the first time in over two decades in the 2019 polls with support from the IP, as well as the pro-PKK Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM), the unofficial name for the Green Left Party (YSP).

On Monday, Mesut Özarslan, IP’s chair for the Ankara branch and one of the founders of the party, tendered his resignation.

Sources close to the IP have told local media the Istanbul mayor has been making promises to IP’s district chairs, excluding six, who have all changed sides with the intention to campaign for Imamoğlu.

Imamoğlu’s offensive has been likened to the charge he led before the intraparty election in CHP last month when he managed to persuade hundreds of deputies to vote against Kılıçdaroğlu at the last minute.

For Akşener and Imamoğlu, resignations and firings were the result of "a plot" they both blamed on each other and on the government. "There is an institutional plot against our party," she said at an event in western Türkiye on Tuesday. Akşener lamented some members of her party acted on their own without consulting with the leadership. "I lived through the same things in 1997 when I was in the True Path Party (DYP). I am trained for this war," she said. Akşener said they decided to compete in municipal elections alone after nine hours of discussions in the administrative board and a vote. "Those opposing the decision have to resign," she said. She said some members of the party were engaged in plots to support the CHP and some even would be nominated by the CHP.

"I never heard this. This means interference to another party’s internal affairs," she said.

For his part, Imamoğlu said at an event on Tuesday that some people were "inciting people we shared the same table against us."

"I am worried. Though they are few, some friends fall for their plot and overstep the mark," he said, without naming the names.

"But old friends won’t be foes. We should ignore bad-mouthing," he said.

Elsewhere, the YSP announced earlier this week to the constituencies that they would field their own candidates. The party was courted by the opposition as they wield clout in certain constituencies. YSP spokesperson Ayşegül Doğan said at a news conference earlier this week that they would nominate candidates in the districts of Adana, Antalya, Mersin, Istanbul, Aydın, Konya, Kocaeli, İzmir, Manisa, Çanakkale and Tekirdağ. Doğan dodged questions about possible support for the CHP, insisting that every party had the right to field their own candidates and there was "no room for speculations."