Yearning for a peace mediator role, Türkiye long avoided taking sides in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, unlike the West's firm support for Ukraine. But as the conflict heats up with U.S.-U.K. missiles used by Ukraine and the Kremlin implementing a nuclear doctrine, Ankara is concerned about where things may go amid the risk of the conflict's expansion.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan says there was certainly a "nuclear risk." "It emerges the moment you start talking about 'nuclear' is being discussed," he said. "Putin says he is ready to take things to the next level if Russia cannot adequately respond through conventional means to missile attacks on its soil more than it can handle. He is clear about that. This is no joke. The opposing side says they won't allow them to invade anywhere through nuclear threat. This is a serious issue," he told reporters in the capital Ankara on Saturday.
Fidan stated that the West was also concerned over North Korea dispatching troops to Russia against Ukraine. He warned that this might open a new front for the U.S. and the West if a game-changing move in the Korean Peninsula upset the current balance. "They may have to get ready for a conflict and help South Korea to adopt new capabilities," he said. The minister said the global conflict risk mentioned by Russian President Vladimir Putin was something Türkiye warned about earlier. "We see fault lines deepening in Ukraine and Gaza and polarization expanding. As a matter of fact, we are currently witnessing a political and economic conflict. It is safe to say that a global war is underway. What matters now is that, hopefully, its intensity will not be aggravated," he said.
Hostilities in the Ukraine-Russia conflict significantly escalated last week when the U.S. administration reversed its policy and granted Ukraine permission to deploy longer-range missiles the U.S. supplied to Kyiv inside Russian territory. The decision on the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, followed reports that North Korea deployed troops to Russia to help against Ukraine in Kursk. Ukraine fired several ATACMS, striking an ammunition warehouse in Russia's Bryansk region, the first time Kyiv had used the weapons inside enemy territory, according to widespread reports. Last Tuesday, Putin formally lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons, opening the door to a potential nuclear response by Moscow to even a conventional attack by any nation supported by a nuclear power. That could include Ukrainian attacks backed by the U.S. In the second major shift in U.S. policy, the Biden administration announced it would give Ukraine antipersonnel mines to help slow Russia's battlefield advances. Biden had previously put off signing off on this because of international objections to the use of such mines due to the risks they pose to civilians.
Another expanding conflict Türkiye is worried about is Israeli aggression in the region. The Netanyahu administration's attempts to expand the Palestine-Israel conflict to Lebanon and Syria overshadowed the ongoing plight of millions in Gaza. Fidan, a key figure in a circle of globetrotting international diplomats pursuing a lasting solution to the conflict, highlighted the importance of addressing the needs of 2 million people in the Palestinian enclave. Türkiye is among the top donors for Palestinians, especially after a new round of the conflict began in October 2023. Yet, humanitarian aid delivery is severely affected by the conflict itself and Israel's uncompromising stance to prevent aid delivery through land borders. Tel Aviv's ban on a U.N. relief agency delivering aid to Palestinians further added to the woes of millions in the enclave.
Fidan says the only way to save 2 million in Gaza from hunger is a new international initiative for food delivery. "All diplomatic means are exhausted, but still, 2 million people in Gaza are forced into a state of hunger before the very eyes of humanity. The U.N. unfortunately could not stop this. Therefore, the international community should find new alternatives for aid delivery," Fidan said. He complained that the U.S. always vetoed plans for aid delivery at the U.N.
The minister also spoke about the Hamas political bureau's alleged relocation to Türkiye and once again denied the rumors that the resistance movement's top figures left Qatar after the Gulf country suspended mediating the sides of the conflict. Fidan said the U.S. is pressuring Hamas, but current conditions put forward for a cease-fire in Gaza have not yet been accepted by Hamas.
Regarding the International Criminal Court's (ICC) arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Fidan said: "The decision made by the ICC is a historic event." Fidan stressed that the development showed diplomacy and justice can achieve results. "A joint stand of humanity's conscience through international mobilization against Israel's genocide played a key role in this decision," Fidan said.
About his country's rejection of Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s request to use Turkish airspace for a flight to attend the COP29 climate summit in the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, Fidan stated that the move came in response to Israel's killing of Palestinians.
"The lack of any steps to prevent the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza deeply wounds us as a nation. Therefore, we did not allow Türkiye's airspace to be used. This decision was made by our president, and permission was denied," he added.
On possible normalization of ties with Syria's Assad regime, Fidan said Türkiye had no intention of aggression and regime change in Syria.
He warned that the lack of tangible steps on terrorism and refugees is creating a more substantial threat within Syria. "Therefore, we are pursuing solutions. If diplomatic and constructive approaches fail, we will inevitably evaluate other measures when the time comes," he said. Noting that there is a cease-fire between the forces on the ground in Syria through the Astana Process, which has been going on for years, he underscored that what needs to be done is to change it with a better structural mechanism and for a better goal. While stressing that normalization between Türkiye and Syria is currently not a priority for Iran and Russia, Fidan expressed Ankara's goodwill in this regard.
Fidan also commented on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's picks for his impending Cabinet. He stressed that the Cabinet nominations indicate a highly pro-Israel orientation, adding that there are signs that such a Cabinet would support all of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s "expansionist ambitions.” The Turkish foreign minister highlighted Trump’s statement suggesting his intention to end wars, stating that the Cabinet appointments projected the opposite impression.
Fidan also shared his faith that the incoming Trump administration will review its relationship with the PKK terrorist group.
"I think the Trump administration will review its relationship with the PKK. Because we convey to them how serious we are about this issue at every opportunity," Fidan said.
On Trump's potential policies after taking office in January, Fidan said: "The impression I got from Trump is that, on certain issues, he will continue his rhetoric but initially leave critical matters to unfold on their own. "He may not make too many radical decisions." On a question about Trump's strategy in Syria and relations with Türkiye, Fidan said: "There are currently not many signs of what Trump will do in Syria. "However, based on some of his approaches during his first term, there are predictions about what he might do today, but I believe that relying solely on this wouldn’t be the most accurate way to think."
"As long as the U.S. continues its cooperation with the YPG/PKK (terrorist group) in Syria, the strategic issue with Türkiye will obviously persist. The U.S., which follows a security-driven foreign policy, needs to be in the best position to understand Türkiye," he said.
Fidan, pointing out that Türkiye will make its stance clear on this issue both through diplomatic moves and its position on the ground, recalled that during Trump’s first term, the U.S. wanted to withdraw from Syria and even attempted to do so. However, he added that the U.S. system did not heed or accept this at that time. "The U.S. sees that we are ready to take every step necessary to ensure our own security in the region. It also sees that we expect a change in their stance on certain issues," the foreign minister said. Fidan emphasized the importance of Türkiye being prepared for every scenario, arguing that his country prefers to address its issues with the Syrian regime in a more structured and diplomatic manner. Recalling Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's advanced diplomatic proposal to Syria, Fidan said: "The Syrian side does not seem very willing or open to discussing certain issues, especially during this process."
Regarding Türkiye-Greece relations, Fidan said that they prefer to deal with all the problems as "a package" and away from public attention. He noted that Ankara does not deem it correct to over-politicize the issues, adding that, especially in Greek domestic politics, issues related to Türkiye can be overly politicized.
Noting that they want to move forward from the positive agenda with a win-win approach, Fidan underlined: "We aim to solve the existing problems through official means and eliminate uncertainties without prejudice to our national interests. "The Aegean Sea, which is a paradise on earth, should turn into a region of economic prosperity for our countries. This is our goal. Can this be done? It can be done." The Turkish foreign minister further stated that a High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council meeting between the two countries will be held next January or February during Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis' visit to Türkiye.
The two countries strive to keep the momentum in improving their relations, though obstacles remain in resolving outstanding issues. A recent visit by Fidan to Athens and an upcoming visit by the Greek prime minister may further contribute to the momentum. The Greek side showed their willingness to continue when the ruling party expelled a former prime minister opposing the thaw in ties. Türkiye, on the other hand, was visibly angered over an EU move that depicted its territorial waters as Greek territory on a map.
The Greek government said earlier this month that it had expelled former Prime Minister Antonis Samaras from the New Democracy ruling party after he criticized the government for being too conciliatory with Türkiye. Samaras had called on Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to oust the country's foreign minister for allegedly giving in to Turkish demands in ongoing talks between the countries dubbed "calm waters."
Samaras, a hardline conservative who served as prime minister from 2012 to 2015, has, in recent months, openly criticized the government for being too soft with Türkiye as well as for pursuing a so-called woke agenda in domestic social matters. "The permanent appeasement of Turkish challenges is not a centrist policy. In this case, those who declare that in the name of 'friendship and tranquility' with Türkiye they don't mind 'being labeled an appeaser' must be sent home," Samaras said in an interview with To Vima newspaper.
Greek government spokesperson Pavlos Marinakis said in a statement Saturday afternoon that Samaras "in his last interview, expressed his total disagreement with the whole of the current government policy. Moreover, in an unchivalrous and provocative manner, he adopted extreme lies, distorting statements by the foreign minister that have been repeatedly and comprehensively clarified." The statement said that with his comments, Samaras has "placed himself" out of the New Democracy party. "No one has the right to gamble with the stability of the country in these troubled times," it said.
Linked to Turkish-Greek ties is the issue of the status of the divided island of Cyprus. About the Cyprus issue, Fidan said the EU made a historic mistake in the dispute by solely accepting Greek Cypriots to the EU, excluding the Turkish Cypriot community, and for this reason, Türkiye has been compelled to take a position on the matter.
He emphasized that Ankara prefers to pursue a solution with the U.N. and not the EU. Fidan said Türkiye is open to good intentions and seeks a solution that reflects the current practical realities on the island. Greek Cypriots sought a federation on the island, while the Turkish side opposed the idea and insisted on its sovereignty and independence. Fidan said the guarantor state Türkiye did not force any solution on any side, and it was false that Ankara blocked the negotiations between the two sides on the island.
