While the Israeli-Palestinian conflict threatens to spiral into a vortex in the Middle East, uneasy neighbors Türkiye and Greece are trying to patch up their age-old quarrels and find solid ground during President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s critical visit to Athens this Thursday.

"Nurturing animosities is not constructive and we’re willing to start a new era, uphold promises and develop relations free from external influences," Erdoğan said Saturday ahead of his first trip across the Aegean since 2017.

When he paid the first presidential visit from Türkiye to Greece in 65 years on Dec. 7, 2017, to meet then-President Prokopis Pavlopoulos, the issues of delimitating continental shelves, the Muslim Turkish minority in Western Thrace and the divided Mediterranean island of Cyprus were still the top problems on the agenda, which have consistently proven difficult to resolve.

But the first formal high-level talks in years give rise to the hope that this time around more tangible results are possible, according to Yücel Acer, author, member of the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA), and an expert of international law currently teaching at the Yıldırım Beyazıt University in Ankara.

"Erdoğan’s visit should be viewed as one where relations can be resettled on sturdier ground," Acer told Daily Sabah in an exclusive interview.

Other outcomes are likely too, noted Acer, including the resumption of confidence-building measures, which could be executed throughout 2024, as well as deals on economy, trade, tourism and other fields.

"The more important thing here, however, is the ability to maintain cordial ties at this stage through solid dialogue and guarantee that this relationship will not be affected by certain ongoing crises in the region," Acer explained, meaning Russia’s war on Ukraine and Israel’s relentless strikes on Gaza.

Weight of Gaza

Türkiye has resolutely stood by Palestinians in the latest round of the conflict that broke out on Oc. 7 when Israel retaliated an unprecedented Hamas incursion into its southern territory with brutal airstrikes and ground invasion that killed nearly 16,000 civilians in the blockaded Gaza Strip.

Erdoğan has called Israeli attacks genocide, accused Israel of being a "terror state" and branded Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the "Butcher of Gaza." He has vowed to hold Israel accountable in the International Criminal Court (ICC) for its "war crimes."

Ankara’s anti-Israel stance draws a stark contrast with the unconditional support Israel receives from the U.S. and EU allies, which consider Hamas a terrorist organization that Israel must "defend" itself against.

Erdoğan has also been criticized by European politicians for describing Hamas as "a liberation organization fighting for their homeland," and the issue has strained Turkish-EU ties already troubled over Ankara’s stalled accession bid, migration and Cyprus dispute.

This difference of opinion could influence Greek perspective, Acer said, citing a "historical tendency" in Athens to conduct its business with Ankara through "third parties" like the U.S. and EU, whose involvement often makes Turkish-Greek ties "fragile."

There have been certain groups in Greece "bothered" by Erdoğan’s trip to Athens for his perceived "opposition" to NATO, the EU and the U.S., but Acer predicts the Gaza conflict will not, at this point, factor into the Turkish-Greek rapprochement.

"If it is to happen, it can reflect on their relationship only if Washington directs Athens to the extent they want to bother Türkiye (about Israel) at a later stage following Erdoğan’s visit," Acer noted.

While "completely disagreeing" with Erdoğan on Hamas, Greek Premier Kyriakos Mitsotakis recently argued Athens and Ankara had a "shared interest" in not wanting to see a further escalation of the Gaza conflict.

Tentative steps

The two leaders will discuss the normalization of bilateral ties, EU-Türkiye relations and cooperation to stem irregular migration in Athens.

This meeting could result in a mechanism aimed at maintaining this thaw, but other problems that plagued the Aegean for decades are likely to remain at a stalemate for now, according to Acer.

Moreover, he believes Greece is reluctant to jeopardize the rare warm atmosphere by making any moves that would bother Türkiye, particularly in the long-troubled Eastern Mediterranean.

A bona fides has commanded bilateral ties since February when Türkiye’s 11 southern provinces were leveled by two massive earthquakes that killed over 52,000 people.

Greece rushed to send aid and rescuers, and Türkiye cut off its negativity, which subsequently softened the theretofore harsh rhetoric and relaunched strategic contact, including face-to-face meetings between Mitsotakis and Erdoğan on the margins of a NATO summit in July and their foreign ministers in September.

Starting with economic interests, Greece has a lot to bank on friendly relations with Türkiye, and regional stability is beneficial to both, Acer pointed out.

Migrants and EU

"Greece is aware the EU's ties with Ankara are crucial in the equation, too, particularly in the revival of the 2016 migrant deal," he said, under which the bloc gave billions of euros to Türkiye to stop migrants coming to Europe at the height of the 2015 refugee crisis.

At the time, visa liberation and an update of the customs union agreement were contingent for Ankara to accept to deal. The EU is yet to fulfill its promises.

Acer doesn’t expect either issue to be resolved in 2024, despite recent efforts to normalize Türkiye-EU ties.

Therefore, he believes Ankara won’t be willing to refresh the migrant deal so long as its expectations remain unmet.

Such a revival would ease the burden on Greece as the easternmost EU member facing regular droves of asylum-seekers from all over Asia.

"Maybe the customs union deal will be renewed, but political dialogue between the sides must be developed first," Acer stressed.

"Türkiye’s estrangement to the EU doesn’t overlap with Greek interests either. That’s why Athens and the Greek Cypriots have refrained from plainly leading an anti-Turkish lobby within the bloc," he added.

Minority factor

Greece’s caution in ceasing its restrictions on its Muslim Turkish minority in Western Thrace, too, is a part of its effort not to draw Ankara’s ire, according to Acer.

Some 150,000 Muslim Turks in the region, whose rights are guaranteed under the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne, have taken violations of their rights up to the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR).

The court has repeatedly ruled in favor of the community on cases like the closure of their schools or the ban on using the term "Turk" in their institutions, all of which Greece has failed to uphold.

"If Greece commits another violation, this would surely draw the necessary response from Türkiye, in addition to raising tensions," Acer said.

There is a "single-problem approach" by Greece in which the only valid problem with Türkiye is the delimitation of the continental shelves, he added.

Similarly, Greece pushes its airspace usage 4 miles wider in violation of Türkiye’s and continues arming Aegean islands meant to be demilitarized under postwar treaties.

"For progress, Greece must first come to the negotiating table having recognized these as problems," Acer said. "Ankara expects a guarantee from Athens but they’re still so far behind in their approach to (potential) solutions and that’s the biggest trouble complicating relations."