President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan surprised many naive to diplomatic moves and unaware of Türkiye’s history of EU membership when he announced that they may approve Sweden’s bid for NATO membership if the European Union paves the way for his country’s long-stalled accession process. Indeed, Erdoğan made good on his promise as NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced after a meeting with Erdoğan on Monday that Türkiye may ratify the membership.

Erdoğan’s rhetoric at a time of close ties with Russia, NATO’s foe of the moment, is perceived as a shift in the axis of Türkiye from Asia to the West but experts note that it is simply a part of Türkiye’s ambition for reinvigorating dormant ties with more countries.

Mehmet Özkan, author and a foreign policy expert currently serving in the Joint War Institute and the National Defense University of Türkiye, says it is true that Türkiye turned a new page in relations with the West after the May 28 elections in which Erdoğan secured another term, but Türkiye has always sought it as a matter of fact. "In the end, Türkiye got what it wanted on the Sweden issue and is establishing new ties with the West. This move does not mean that Türkiye moved to a West-oriented foreign policy. Türkiye has already been pursuing a balanced policy," he told Daily Sabah on Tuesday.

Erdoğan has agreed to back Sweden's NATO bid and will forward it to Parliament soon, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday after a trilateral meeting with Turkish and Swedish leaders in Vilnius, Lithuania, on the eve of the critical NATO summit on Tuesday. Stoltenberg told reporters that Erdoğan has agreed to send Sweden’s NATO accession protocol to the Turkish Parliament "as soon as possible," without specifying a date. "I'm glad to announce that President (Recep Tayyip) Erdoğan has agreed to forward the Accession Protocol for Sweden to the Grand National Assembly as soon as possible and work closely with the assembly to ensure ratification," Stoltenberg said. "Sweden agreed today, as an EU member, also to support actively the efforts to reinvigorate Türkiye's EU accession process and also to help to modernize the EU-Türkiye customs unions and visa liberalization," he said.

The trilateral meeting agreed to work toward eliminating sanctions and removing obstacles in defense trade and investments among allies. Stockholm reassured Türkiye that it would not support terrorist organizations PKK/YPG and the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ) in the aftermath of its NATO membership and that a new bilateral security mechanism will be created between Ankara and Stockholm. NATO will also establish a Special Coordinator on Counterterrorism for the first time in the bloc's history, Stoltenberg said.

Türkiye has delayed its final approval of Sweden’s membership in NATO, accusing the country of being too lenient toward anti-Islam demonstrations as well as terrorist entities.

Meanwhile, a top Turkish official said Türkiye received "full support" for its EU accession process, including the lifting of sanctions and visa liberalization. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson confirmed his country will establish a new bilateral security dialogue with Türkiye for cooperation.

Özkan noted that the "anti-Erdoğan" stance in the West in recent years paved the way for a perception that Türkiye had shifted its axis to "the East." "Türkiye seeks a balance. It does not want to be a part of the West but rather, it desires a healthier, more rational, sustainable relation with the West," he underlined. Özkan says it is wrong to equate approving Sweden’s membership to severing ties with Russia. "On the contrary, there is a need for a more rational ground in ties with the East. Türkiye’s growing ties with the East are viewed as an anti-West move but this is wrong. Approving Sweden’s membership means pursuing a healthy relationship with the East without completely severing ties with the West. Türkiye has a basic dilemma in its foreign policy: being forced into a corner where it should choose between the West and the East. Türkiye does not want this," he said.

Mehmet Akif Kireçci, a professor of history at Bilkent University, as well as a member of the Presidential Council of Security and Foreign Policies, says Türkiye already deserves a status in the European Union, regardless of its approval of Sweden’s membership. "Türkiye is part of the EU security mechanism and contributes to it but depriving it of full membership is a shame for European Union. EU-Türkiye relations should advance a few levels more. President Erdoğan rightfully said that accession to the EU is not a condition but he simply reminded them that Türkiye should be in a place it deserved," he told Daily Sabah.

On comments by officials from some countries, including Germany, that highlighted NATO membership and EU accession were unrelated, Kireçci said comments ignored the facts on the ground. "I think they should look closer at current geopolitical and security developments that also affect them and grasp what Türkiye’s EU membership would mean. Türkiye is a country empowering any alliance it has membership. For instance, Germany is among the major beneficiaries of security Türkiye provided (for Europe)," Kireçci said.

He dismisses the claim that Türkiye has left behind "West-oriented foreign policy." "It never did. Türkiye just wants its deserved place in Europe. It is not like Türkiye changes sides from the Warsaw Pact to NATO. It is already a part of the Western security alliance: NATO. It is the number one military force in Europe for NATO. Türkiye wants the West to acknowledge its political stance just like its military might is acknowledged," Kireçci said.

"You cannot have a balanced or imbalanced foreign policy. At times, countries accentuate some relations and play down others but this does not mean a change of balance," he added.

Commenting on Türkiye's approval of NATO membership, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson on Tuesday said that his country is "decisive" in the fight against terrorism and organized crime. "We are here for the long term and we are decisive in the fight against terrorism and organized crime," Kristersson said, referring to some of Türkiye's top concerns in giving Sweden a green light for membership in the NATO military alliance. "I think Sweden has a lot to bring to the table as well," he said, speaking in Vilnius. Saying that "very important" decision-making steps were made on Tuesday on Sweden's NATO membership bid, he said that he expects the ratification process to be completed "as soon as possible," like NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

"So I am happy with the result and look forward to the final ratifications," he added. Stressing that his country, an EU member since 1995, favors close ties between the EU and Türkiye, the premier said, listing longstanding issues between Türkiye and the bloc: "Now we are promoting closing economic bonds, modernization of the Customs Union, providing better visa regulations, and so forth." "During the fall of this year we will restart talks about how to regain cooperation with Türkiye," he said, and added: "It's good."

"Sweden agreed today, as an EU member, also to actively support the efforts to reinvigorate Türkiye's EU accession process, and also to help modernize the EU-Türkiye Customs Union and visa liberalization," Kristersson added, listing more sticking points between Türkiye and the bloc.

Earlier, Erdoğan said the Turkish people expect steps forward from the EU as Türkiye does its part with Sweden's NATO accession. Sweden's cooperation with Türkiye in the fight against terrorism is also set to continue beyond its accession, as announced on Monday, as both countries agreed to establish a new bilateral security compact, including a new special counterterrorism coordinator for "stepping up its work in this area." Sweden and Finland decided to seek NATO membership after Russia launched its war on Ukraine in February 2022. While Finland gained membership this April, Türkiye said Sweden would need to address its security concerns – particularly over terrorism – before getting its green light.

New members of NATO must get unanimous agreement from all the current members. Türkiye has been a NATO member for over 70 years and boasts its second-largest army.

Leaders and ministers across Europe shared congratulatory messages after Türkiye's decision to refer Sweden's NATO Accession Protocol to the Turkish Parliament for ratification. Charles Michel, president of the European Council, welcomed the decision on his Twitter account: "Good news from Vilnius."

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: "A historic step in Vilnius. I welcome the important step that Türkiye has promised to take, to ratify Sweden's accession to NATO."

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who is known to be vocal about NATO's expansion, also welcomed the outcome of the meeting. "This is a historic moment for NATO that makes us all safer. Sweden, we look forward to welcoming you into the Alliance," he said. The British premier also released a statement in which he said: "As the world passes the grim milestone of 500 days since Putin's full-scale, illegal invasion of Ukraine, NATO leaders will gather in Lithuania today (Tuesday) to put the alliance on the right path to face down the threats of the future."

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Sweden's likely accession marks a new beginning. "Good news from Vilnius. Our joint efforts have paid off. With 32 (members), we're all safer together."

Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani also tweeted: "Excellent news! Next: Kosovo, Ukraine and Bosnia and Herzegovina to NATO for a stronger Alliance and a safer Europe!"

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said Stockholm's membership is crucially important for the region. "Historic news for Sweden, Norway, the Nordic region and Nato. We welcome the agreement between Stoltenberg, Erdogan and Kristersson tonight. A united Nordic region in NATO makes the Alliance stronger and our region more secure."

Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren called the development "great news on the eve of the NATO Summit." Saying the alliance is "stronger together," Ollongren said her country is looking forward to welcoming Sweden as a NATO ally.

Finnish President Sauli Niinsto, whose country joined the alliance after Türkiye's approval in April, said: "As I have often said, Finland's NATO membership would not be complete without Sweden. It is one step away from its completion. With Sweden, the entire alliance will be even more secure."

In a statement on Twitter, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said: "I welcome Türkiye's announcement of its intention to ratify Sweden's NATO accession protocol and hope that this will happen as soon as possible. Sweden will make our Alliance stronger."

Türkiye now expects a European Union reform group to be revived after Ankara approves Sweden's NATO membership as Türkiye seeks to enter a new period of improved ties with the West, a senior Turkish official told Reuters on Tuesday. Ankara expects concrete progress from the EU on issues such as visa-free travel, as well as closing some chapters on EU accession, the official said, adding that the West needs to support Türkiye in its financial needs. Türkiye will develop a "reasonable" relationship with the United States and expects the swift resolution of some problems, even though all issues may not be solved, the person who declined to be named, said. Ankara will not harm its relations with Russia as it moves closer to the West, the official added.

Russian reaction

Türkiye should be under no illusion that it might one day be allowed to join the European Union, the Kremlin said on Tuesday, as Moscow stressed its desire for strong relations with Ankara despite disagreements, including over NATO enlargement.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov was responding to a question about NATO member Türkiye's decision to lift its opposition to Sweden joining the alliance. President Erdoğan has sought to maintain cordial ties with both Moscow and Kyiv during the 16-month war in Ukraine. He has refused to join Western sanctions against Russia over the invasion and has invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to visit Türkiye in August.

Russia sees NATO expansion as a threat to its own security, but Peskov played down a reporter's suggestion that Türkiye was pivoting away from Russia and toward the West. "Turkey can orient itself to the West, we know that in the history of the Republic of Turkey there were periods of intensive orientation to the West, there were periods of less intensive ones," he told a daily news briefing. "But we also know that ... no one wants to see Turkey in Europe, I mean the Europeans. And here our Turkish partners should not wear rose-tinted spectacles either," he said.

Peskov said Russia understood that Türkiye had to fulfill its obligations as a NATO member over Sweden, but he added that Moscow wanted to continue to build mutually beneficial relations with Ankara despite "all disagreements." Türkiye is currently trying to persuade Russia to extend a deal it helped broker along with the United Nations last summer that allows Ukraine to export grain via the Black Sea. Moscow is angry over the implementation of aspects of the deal and says it may not allow its extension beyond July 17. Türkiye also helped last year to broker prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine, and the Kremlin says Putin highly appreciates Erdoğan's efforts to mediate in the war.

The Kremlin is also keen to build a new hub in Türkiye for exports of Russian gas, as Moscow reroutes shipments in response to European moves since the start of the war to sharply cut reliance on Russian energy.