A new bill introducing prison terms for supporters of terrorist groups will come into force in Sweden on Thursday. This seemingly ordinary bill that makes supporting a terrorist organization a punishable offense with prison terms of up to four years has a special meaning for Stockholm: Another milestone on its way to NATO membership. The Nordic country hopes Türkiye, a key partner of the alliance, will greenlight its membership after the bill passes and before a NATO summit in Latvia in July.

Ankara has been firm in its opposition to Sweden’s membership unless it fulfills certain conditions, namely, strict measures against terrorist groups and extraditing members of those groups wanted by Türkiye. The implementation of the anti-terror bill is not enough for approval alone, according to Turkish officials. However, Ankara might expedite the process, whether on approval or rejection, in the aftermath of the May 28 runoff.

The incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has been vocal in his opposition to Sweden’s bid, secured another five-year term. Yet, it was also Erdoğan who steered Türkiye to approve Finland's NATO membership in April, after it fulfilled Ankara’s criteria.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has urged Türkiye and Hungary to approve Sweden's NATO membership, as he insisted there was no link between Stockholm's bid and Ankara's F-16 upgrades. "Both of these are vital, in our judgment, to European security," Blinken told reporters at a joint news conference in the northern Swedish city of Lulea with Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson recently. Kristersson said the two sides had been in contact since Sunday’s vote and voiced no hesitancy in speaking about the benefits Sweden would bring to NATO "when we join the alliance."

Sweden and Finland – which historically stayed militarily non-aligned to avoid conflict with their giant neighbor – have both formally sought NATO membership after Russia last year invaded Ukraine, which had unsuccessfully tried to join the alliance and its joint security guarantees.

Fresh from the weekend victory, Erdoğan may be willing to ease his objections to Sweden’s membership. Ankara accuses Sweden of not responding to its security concerns regarding terrorist groups, and a series of Quran-burning protests in Stockholm – making his tough stance even more popular.