An escalation of the ensuing tensions between Ukraine and Russia would threaten not only Kyiv but the entire world, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Turkey Vasyl Bodnar warned recently in an exclusive interview with Daily Sabah.
In the interview, Bodnar underlined that if Russia were to undertake a new large-scale offensive against Ukraine, it would "open a Pandora's box" for the whole world.
He noted that Russia has amassed approximately 126,000 troops near Ukraine, with forces stationed in Russian territory as well as in occupied Crimea and Donbass since last March, stressing that this amassment continues despite Ukraine and its partners' attempts to ensure a de-escalation.
The cease-fire in Donbass remains fragile, Bodnar said, adding that Ukraine lost 66 soldiers in 2021, while another 273 were wounded.
“Moreover, it has developed capabilities to deploy more units in a short period of time. It extensively uses military bases in Belarus," he said, explaining this implies that the Russian threat comes from both the east and the north.
Bodnar also said Ukraine's infrastructure has been targeted by Russian cyberattacks and that attempts are consistently made to undermine the country’s energy security, using tactics like decreasing gas transit, blocking the export of coal and forcing Belarus to ban electricity supplies.
While amassing troops along Ukraine’s border and playing war games in Belarus, which borders NATO members Poland and Lithuania, Russian President Vladimir Putin is demanding that Ukraine be permanently barred from exercising its sovereign right to join the Western alliance and that NATO curtail certain actions, including stationing troops in former Soviet countries.
Emphasizing the inordinate nature of Russia's demands, Bodnar said: “It is unthinkable in the 21st century to try to limit the sovereignty of other countries and dictate how they should build their domestic and foreign policy. It is unthinkable to try to revert the pace of history and get back to the Yalta world of divisions and spheres of influence.”
By making these demands and escalating the situation around Ukraine, Russia, at the very least, is able to gauge NATO's limits and the extent of the West's patience, Bodnar said, adding that Moscow will be watching to see "what practical response they are capable of giving."
The current fears of a Russian invasion follow Moscow's 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.
Kyiv is already fighting a low-level conflict with Russian-backed rebels controlling a chunk of the east of the country, fighting that has claimed 13,000 lives in the past eight years.
“The probability of a war is quite high,” Bodnar said. “Russia’s decision to attack will depend heavily on the potential response of our partners in NATO and other democratic countries. If Russia gets informed that its eventual attack will come with a serious cost it can’t afford to pay, its readiness to go ahead will be shattered.”
The envoy once again reiterated that Ukraine seeks to solve disputes through political and diplomatic means but that the country is also ready to protect its sovereignty and independence.
Preventing a war always comes at a lower price than entering a conflict and its residual effects, the ambassador underlined, urging the international community to clearly voice “their firm position in condemnation of Russia’s ungrounded aggressive policies" and to "outline their harsh response if Russia decides to attack."
There should be a comprehensive deterrence package that contains "painful" sanctions on the Russian economy, he added.
Nonetheless, diplomatic efforts are ongoing, said Bodnar, who drew attention to the talks between Russia, the U.S. and NATO as well as the discussions on regional tensions within the scope of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).
Turkey has also been closely following the developments in the field and has remained in close contact with both Kyiv and Moscow. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Turkey could mediate between the neighbors amid increasing tensions in the region and recently announced plans to visit Ukraine in February to help defuse tensions.
“We are thankful to President Erdoğan for offering his mediation efforts. As we are committed to a peaceful solution and diplomacy, we praise this offer," Bodnar said, adding that Kyiv hopes the cumulative effect of its international partners' efforts will force Russia to stop entertaining the idea of committing another offensive against Ukraine. “In this light, we intensified contacts with all our international partners to mobilize support for Ukraine and safeguard our national interests during the said diplomatic talks,” the ambassador said.
In its initial response, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed Ankara's offer to mediate talks while speaking to journalists in Moscow, saying: “The fact is that Russia is not a party to the conflict in Donbass. It will be impossible to find solutions to the problem at such a summit.”
However, in a later statement, the Kremlin said that if Turkey could use its influence to encourage Ukraine to implement the 2014 Minsk Protocol, Russia would welcome it.
Bodnar accused Russia of trying to weaken Ukraine's ability to defend itself and of preventing it from becoming a NATO member, adding: "In broader terms, Russia tries to revive the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact or Yalta system in the 21st century and to divide Europe into spheres of influence again.”
NATO allies have signaled their willingness to continue discussions, but Moscow has demanded a written response to its proposals for security guarantees.
Underlining that Russia’s alleged security concerns are “ungrounded,” the Ukrainian ambassador said that nobody poses a threat toward Moscow.
“It is not NATO expanding toward Russia. It is countries that lie close to Russia and feel threatened by Russia are leaning toward NATO and feel it to be the only security guarantee against Russia’s aggressive hybrid policies,” he stated.
