President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Gulf tour, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has the potential to diversify areas of cooperation and upgrade relations for the upcoming period, experts said.

Erdoğan’s Gulf visit starts Monday with Saudi Arabia, where he will meet Saudi King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).

"The timing of the visit couldn’t be better given that President Erdoğan has a new mandate for another five years and the ambitious Gulf monarchies are looking to diversify further their economic, security and partnership ties on the regional and international relations," Dr. Ali Bakir, international affairs professor at Qatar University and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Councils’ "Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative" and Middle East Programs told Daily Sabah.

The three-day tour comes after Erdoğan secured reelection in late May and builds on Ankara’s diplomatic efforts since 2021 to normalize strained ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE and will seek to expand its already strong partnership with Qatar.

The tour will focus on bilateral relations, global and regional issues, and possible areas of cooperation, especially in the fields of economy and investment.

Erdoğan is expected to travel to Doha on Tuesday and talk with the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.

The president’s last stop will be the United Arab Emirates. He is scheduled to meet UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ) in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday.

"Both parties have great potential to build on the current relations and expand their ties on several fronts, especially in economic, investment, constructions and contracting, security and defense sectors, among others," Bakir added.

"In this sense, Türkiye stands as the first and most natural option on the regional level. I believe the visit will upgrade the relationship between Türkiye and the Gulf countries to a new level in the post-normalization period."

The visit proves that Türkiye’s economic focus in the new period will not only be pursued through the new Cabinet but also through foreign policy, Mustafa Yetim, an academic at Eskişehir Osmangazi University and Gulf expert at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies (ORSAM) highlighted. "The previous meetings and relation networks with the Gulf confirm this."

Turkish officials have said they expect new investments from Gulf states soon after Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz and Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek traveled to the UAE and Qatar ahead of Erdoğan’s trip and held talks with top officials and their counterparts.

Şimşek and Hafize Gaye Erkan, the new governor of Türkiye’s central bank, traveled to Saudi Arabia last week to meet with officials and investors.

Greater Turkish-Arab cooperation could also bring together joint efforts in the face of rising global and regional challenges, including the situation in Syria, developments in Sudan, Libya and Iraq, as well as the grain crisis.

After his departure to Jeddah on Monday, Erdoğan said that crises in the Islamic world require close consultation and cooperation between Türkiye and the Gulf countries.

"Türkiye’s military potential initiatives in areas such as Libya, Azerbaijan-Armenia, and Iraq and Syria are well-known. The Gulf countries, which entered an economic, political and social transformation period, are seeking alternative regional and global partners for their security needs," Yetim said, reiterating that Qatar was the first to act in this manner while similar scenarios are possible now with the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

"We are witnessing a détente in the region as well as a multifaceted normalization period between central countries such as Iran, Türkiye, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. This is why countries seek to strengthen their positions as well as new partnerships while actors such as Iran, Türkiye and Egypt also focus increasingly on economic concerns," Yetim continued, emphasizing, however, that from the point of view of the Gulf countries, new generations at home bring together new concerns.

"These countries aim to leave a legacy where questions on food security, employment, energy security, as well as regime security are resolved. We see that the Gulf agrees that Türkiye can be an active and influential partner in terms of food, defense and regime, among other issues," he said. "This is why we could see a deepening of relations with these countries as well as new partnerships between Türkiye and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as well as the diversification of defense and military cooperation.

Furthermore, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar told Daily Sabah recently that energy cooperation will be one of the main agendas of the visit as Ankara aims for cooperation on energy with the oil-rich monarchies.

"The world faces an energy problem. Therefore, considering the vital role these three countries play in the global energy market regarding oil and gas, Ankara has given a special focus to relations with the Gulf," Yetim underlined.

Economic potential

"Our bilateral trade volume with the Gulf countries has increased from $1.6 billion (TL 42.10 billion) to approximately $22 billion in the last 20 years," Erdoğan pointed out. He said they would look for ways to increase these figures through planned business forums.

The president said that the primary agenda of his visits would be joint investment and commercial activities and they would assess "what we could with a win-win approach." Erdoğan said they had come a long way in the relations with the Gulf countries in the recent period and highlighted the "financial and spiritual support" of those countries in the aftermath of the Feb. 6 earthquakes that hit Türkiye’s southern provinces. He noted that friendly and brotherly countries exhibited full solidarity with Türkiye in many fields after the disaster, from providing prefabricated housing units to humanitarian aid.

"We are working toward establishing a belt of peace, stability and prosperity around Türkiye. Strengthening relations with regional countries is the most critical step toward this goal. 2023 is a year of opportunity to that end. This year, we mark the 50th anniversary of our diplomatic relations with Qatar and the UAE. We also established diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia back in 1929. We desire to expand the cooperation based on the solid foundation of our relations," he said.

"We will have the opportunity for substantial discussion on helping brotherly countries during our visit. Saudi Arabia is one of the most important countries in the region and has a special place in terms of commerce, investments and construction. Turkish builders undertook projects worth about $25 billion in the past 20 years. We want Turkish companies to contribute more to large-scale projects in Saudi Arabia," he said.

On his visit to Qatar, Erdoğan said they already had a "perfect" relationship with that country in every field and that they would discuss bilateral relations during his visit to Doha and exchange views on regional issues. On his UAE visit, Erdoğan said Türkiye and UAE bilateral trade had reached the highest levels in recent years and they wanted to increase it to a level more fitting "to the true potential of both countries."

Meanwhile, Trade Minister Ömer Bolat last week said the UAE could make investments of up to $30 billion in multiple areas.

Türkiye expects the Gulf countries to make direct investments of about $10 billion initially in domestic assets as part of Erdoğan’s trip; two senior Turkish officials told Reuters earlier this month.

Overall investments of up to $30 billion are expected over a more extended period in Türkiye’s energy, infrastructure and defense sectors, the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, given the talks are private and deals are not yet finalized, said.

More than 200 businesspeople will be accompanying Erdoğan on his Gulf trip this week, according to the Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEIK), which will be organizing expansive business forums in the three countries.

The business world anticipates discussing billions of dollars worth of collaboration agreements in sectors such as construction, housing, digital technologies, energy, tourism, health care, food, agriculture, transportation and finance, said DEIK Chair Nail Olpak on Saturday.

Türkiye’s exports to Saudi Arabia reached $1.5 billion as of the end of 2022, with a total trade volume of nearly $6 billion. Olpak said the goal is to reach $10 billion in the short term and eventually $30 billion in the long time.

In terms of Qatar, exports amounted to $1.5 billion at the end of last year and the current total trade volume is around $2.2 billion. Olpak stressed the aim of reaching $5 billion in the first stage.

Regarding the UAE, Olpak said exports reached $5.3 billion in 2022, with a total trade volume of approximately $10 billion, emphasizing the aim to lift these figures further rapidly.