President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will be pursuing an independent foreign policy in the coming term, according to James Jeffrey, former U.S. special envoy to the global coalition against Daesh, citing Türkiye's size and capabilities as the basis for the "rational" decision.

Speaking at a panel by the Atlantic Council to discuss Turkish-American relations and Turkish foreign policy in the post-election period, Jeffrey, who is also a former envoy to Ankara, said there is a chance to improve ties between the U.S. and Türkiye, which he said are not "at a low point."

Relations between U.S. President Joe Biden and Erdoğan were at a relatively low point over the last year, Jeffrey recalled but added that Biden "went a long way toward fixing that with his call on Monday" to congratulate Erdoğan on his election victory.

The two leaders agreed to further enhance their relations in a phone call earlier this week after Erdoğan clinched a win in a historic runoff vote on Sunday and rolled up his sleeves to reshape existing policies.

Türkiye-U.S. relations have been strained in recent years because of the latter's cooperation with the PKK terrorist group's Syrian offshoot YPG, its stance toward the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ), sanctions against Türkiye over its purchase of Russia's S-400 air defense system, Türkiye’s removal from the F-36 program, and the long delays in the deal for F-16 fighter jets and modernization kits.

Erdoğan’s working relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin has also many times drawn Washington’s criticism despite Turkish mediation yielding a prisoner swap as well as a vital deal that has allowed Ukraine to ship grain through the Black Sea to parts of the world struggling with hunger during the ongoing Russian invasion.

Jeffry argued that other than the U.S. and Britain, no NATO country has done more to make Russia's campaign in Ukraine difficult than Türkiye.

Referring to claims that Türkiye is nearing approval of Sweden's NATO membership, Jeffrey said he does not have any idea what Erdoğan will do this week and dismissed the rumors as mere allegations with no substantial basis.

With Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections concluded and the next annual NATO summit in sight, the issue of Sweden’s accession to the security bloc has resurfaced on Ankara’s agenda this week as Washington urged Türkiye once again to approve the Nordic nation’s bid.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken claimed there was no link between Stockholm's bid and Ankara's F-16 upgrades but President Joe Biden implicitly linked the two issues in his phone call with Erdoğan.

"I spoke to Erdoğan and he still wants to work on something on the F-16s. I told him we wanted a deal with Sweden. So let’s get that done," Biden said.

Fresh from the weekend, Erdoğan may be willing to ease his objections to Sweden’s membership. Ankara accuses Sweden of not responding to its security concerns regarding terrorist groups, and a series of Quran-burning protests in Stockholm — making his tough stance even more popular.

A bill tightening Sweden’s counterterrorism laws, an attempt by Stockholm to address Türkiye's security concerns, enters into force today.

Jeffrey further noted that throughout Erdoğan's tenure, he fostered strong ties with the West, particularly from 2009 to 2010. He highlighted that Erdoğan displayed a readiness to reach a deal on Cyprus and implemented reforms to facilitate EU accession. But the Greek rejection of the Annan Plan on Cyprus and opposition from certain EU member states hindered Türkiye's membership prospects.

The ethnically divided island of Cyprus has been mired in a decadeslong dispute between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots. A Greek Cypriot coup aimed at Greece's annexation led to Türkiye's military intervention as a guarantor power in 1974 to protect Turkish Cypriots from persecution and violence and the TRNC was founded in 1983 as a result.

It has seen an on-and-off peace process in recent years, including a failed 2017 initiative in Switzerland under the auspices of Türkiye, Greece and the United Kingdom.

Tensions with Greece over the island and many others across the Aegean are among a variety of issues, including Türkiye’s role in Syria and the migrant crisis, that have soured Türkiye-EU relations. Ankara’s displeasure with the bloc has also grown in the meantime over the widespread toleration of terrorists and their supporters across many European countries.

Expressing that Erdoğan's efforts have not been rewarded, Jeffrey said: "So he's going to operate independently and this is a rational decision given not only their size and capabilities, it's also reasonable from the standpoint of their experiences."

Turning to tensions between Greece and Türkiye, Jeffrey said an obsession with Türkiye is "one of the main abiding parts of Greek foreign policy."

"Whereas whatever the animosities and irritations might be, Turks aren't obsessed with Greece ... they just have too many bigger problems," said the former ambassador.

The rival nations held national elections a week apart in late May and the Aegean crisis with Türkiye has been a top campaign item for Greek parties gunning for Parliament. But relations have warmed significantly in recent months after Greece’s rapid assistance in the wake of twin earthquakes that shook southern Türkiye in early February. Both Erdoğan and Greek premier Kyriakos Mitsotakis expressed hope for a "fresh start" between their countries after the elections.

Jeffrey also emphasized the importance for the U.S. administration to carefully consider relations with the YPG/PKK terror organization in Syria, which is designated as a terrorist organization in the U.S., Türkiye and the European Union. Its bloody insurgency left over 40,000 people dead in the past four decades.

Despite Türkiye’s security concerns, the U.S. has provided military training and given truckloads of military support to the YPG under the pretext of fighting Daesh.

Arguing that one cannot support one terrorist group to defeat another, Türkiye has been conducting its own counterterrorism operations throughout northern Syria and Iraq, much to the dismay of its Western allies.