Syrian leader Bashar Assad’s stipulation that Türkiye withdraws from his country’s terrorist-occupied northern regions for any normalization is more directed at the Syrian people to save face, according to an international relations expert.

Assad on Monday said he was open to meeting President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan but it depended on the encounter’s "content," noting Türkiye’s presence in Syria is a "key sticking point."

Erdoğan has said that he will soon extend an invitation to Assad to meet for the first time since Ankara and Damascus broke off relations in 2011, as mass anti-government protests and a brutal crackdown by security forces in Syria spiraled into a still-ongoing civil war.

Türkiye backed Syrian insurgent groups seeking to overthrow Assad and maintains forces in the opposition-held northwest, a sore point for Damascus.

"Normalization will not happen at once but the joint threat of PKK/YPG terror groups will bring Ankara and Damascus together eventually," Cemil Doğaç Ipek told the Daily Sabah in an exclusive interview.

Assad said he would meet Erdoğan if it serves Syria’s interests but believes "support for 'terrorism' and the withdrawal from Syrian territory" are the "essence of the problem."

According to Ipek, it’s not the end of the world if this normalization doesn’t take place but the regional conjecture right now is pushing the two countries to cooperate "because their enemies have become the same, especially the PKK/YPG, and the U.S. leading an imperialist project in the region despite not preventing the last elections."

The PKK’s plans for Syria, namely a "democratic autonomous administration" that doesn’t officially exist could have serious consequences for both Syria and Türkiye, Ipek warned.

"Due to current conditions, shared threats on both nations, this rapprochement will happen. Be it tomorrow or six months later," he said.

Ipek believes Assad backers Russia and Iran’s demands and rejections too should be factored in his dealings with Ankara.

Moscow, which also has close ties with Türkiye, has been pushing for a return to diplomatic relations but Iran, who backs paramilitary groups in Syria, is less eager about an Assad-Erdoğan meeting.

"This normalization is an out of the crisis for the Assad regime," Ipek argued. "Both to gain more legitimacy and wriggle out of Tehran’s domination because it’s known the regime is bothered by Iran’s territorial gains in Syria."

This is not the first time there have been attempts to normalize relations between the two countries, but previous attempts failed to gain traction.

In December 2022, the Turkish, Syrian and Russian defense ministers met in Moscow, the first ministerial-level meeting between Türkiye and Syria since 2011. Russia also brokered meetings between Syrian and Turkish officials last year.

However, the talks fizzled, and Syrian officials publicly continued to blast Türkiye’s presence in northwest Syria where the PKK enjoys free autonomy through the YPG.

Since 2016, Türkiye has carried out successive ground operations to expel the YPG from Syria's north, to prevent the formation of a terror corridor and to sever its ties with PKK’s stronghold in northern Iraq’s Qandil region. Airstrikes also target the PKK in northern Iraq.

"Assad’s description of Türkiye as an ‘occupier’ is not true in terms of international law," Ipek said, citing Article 51 of U.N. Charter VII for self-defense against threats on national security.

"As long as Assad is unable to eliminate these terror groups, Türkiye will continue exercising its legitimate right (of self-defense) against these groups per international law," Ipek said.

Ankara views the YPG as an offshoot of the PKK, which is a listed terrorist organization in Türkiye, the U.S. and the EU, responsible for the deaths of more than 40,000 people in a bloody terror campaign since the 1980s. Washington calls the YPG its ally in driving Daesh out of Syria and its military support of the terror group is a strain on relations with Ankara which says it’s "senseless" to use a terror group to fight another.

"There is no intent to occupy or seize territory here," Ipek said. "At any rate, Türkiye often suggests cooperation against terrorism, reiterating commitment to Syria’s territorial integrity and its expectations of the same from allies, especially France and the U.S."

Ipek also argued against criticism of Türkiye for changing course throughout the Syrian conflict, noting, "Ankara has revised its policies because circumstances have changed since 2011 with the emergence of serious threats like terror groups, which turned out to be backed by the West."

He dismissed the idea that Türkiye would be "abandoning" Assad’s opposition or northern territories liberated from terrorists by reviving ties with Damascus since "If Erdoğan and Assad meet, the Turkish leader will also be representing the Syrian National Army."

"It’s unthinkable for Türkiye to be involved in any scenario that would harm the people in these opposition-held regions," Ipek said.