Fifty years on from a Turkish operation that carved the island of Cyprus in two, many residents, both Turks and Greeks, are hoping for a solution that remains as elusive as it did when the last peace talks collapsed seven years ago.

"Negotiations will not restart unless at least one side significantly changes its current stance," according to Dr. Mehmet Uğur Ekinci, author and an expert of European politics.

The division on Cyprus remains a bleeding wound in Mediterranean geopolitics, as well as Türkiye-Greece relations, wherein both the Greek Cypriot administration and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) are firmly clinging onto their specific demands to resume talks that sought middle ground up until 2017 when fundamental shifts in perspective shelved dialogue, seemingly for good.

"What the two sides in Cyprus understand from what solution means is quite different, with Greek Cypriots wanting a majority rule and Turkish Cypriots wanting larger autonomy to protect their communal interests and security," Ekinci told Daily Sabah. "However, in the current conditions of international politics, no strong incentives would push either side to make serious concessions."

Türkiye and the Turkish Cypriots say the only way to peace now is a two-state deal with equal sovereignty, as opposed to reunifying the island as a federation composed of Greek and Turkish Cypriot zones.

Despite rejecting a deal on a federation previously, the majority of Greek Cypriots also oppose anything that would formalize a partition, as well as demands for a Turkish Cypriot veto on all federal-level government decisions, permanent Turkish troop presence and Turkish military intervention rights.

Ekinci argued it was the "intransigence of the Greek side" that led Türkiye to stop supporting a solution within the U.N. framework.

Outside intervention

The TRNC will be throwing grand celebrations on July 20, which marks 50 years since Türkiye mounted an intervention dubbed Cyprus Peace Operation in response to a brief coup orchestrated by the military junta then ruling Greece.

The seeds of division were sown earlier when a power-sharing administration of Greek and Turkish Cypriots crumbled amid violence and persecution of Turks by Greek extremists just three years after independence from Britain.

The operation, which ultimately prevented Cyprus' incorporation into Greece, paved the way for strengthening the safety of the Turkish Cypriot community. After two days, Türkiye suspended the operation and called the U.K. and Greece to the negotiation table.

Ultimately, guarantor states signed the Geneva Declaration on July 30, 1974. Türkiye relaunched the military operation on Aug. 14 and two days later, a cease-fire was declared, successfully wrapping up the operation.

But tragedy followed as withdrawing Greek Cypriot troops committed massacres in Turkish villages on their way back. Mass graves were discovered after the peace operation ended. The Turkish army lost 498 soldiers during the operation, while 70 "mücahits" (volunteer Turkish Cypriot fighters) were killed in the operation.

The date, celebrated as Peace and Freedom Day by Turkish Cypriots, is a memorial day for Greek Cypriots.

Since then, the U.N., which has a peacekeeping force patrolling a 180-kilometer (116-mile) buffer zone bisecting Cyprus east to west, has made several stabs at ending the dispute, but to no avail and Ekinci doesn’t have any high hopes it can any time soon either.

"There is nothing the U.N. can do beyond acting as a facilitator in negotiations, in terms of good offices," he said, also dismissing the EU's involvement due to its partiality to the Greek side.

"It can only attempt to pressure Türkiye, not the Greek Cypriots or Greece but the EU today doesn't have a carrot or stick powerful enough to influence Türkiye's preferences on Cyprus," Ekinci noted.

Ankara, Athens on site

Both President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will be attending separate commemoration events on the island on Saturday.

Although Athens and Ankara have been exercising a goodwill trial to mend decades of strained relations since last year, the rapprochement has so far failed to translate into a solution for the Cyprus crisis.

The island is a sore spot in ties and Ekinci doesn’t believe the diplomatic improvement is enough by itself to resolve major political disputes like Cyprus or that the two countries can settle it through bilateral negotiations alone.

"The current geopolitical climate is not like the 2000s when expectations for a federal solution were higher," he pointed out.

Greek Cypriot voters rejected a U.N. peace plan in a 2004 referendum and the Greek Cypriot administration entered the European Union by itself, with Turkish Cypriots denied the full benefits of membership.

At the time, Türkiye itself was pursuing formal negotiations for full EU membership and it seemed realistic for Türkiye, Greece and Cyprus to come together under the EU umbrella one day.

"It created some motivation for the parties to solve the Cyprus problem on common ground," Ekinci said. "Today, since such a possibility is not realistic, a federal solution is not on the horizon."

The two-state solution proposed by Türkiye and Turkish Cypriots doesn't find support from the international community due to existing U.N. Security Council resolutions but Ekinci argued the Greek Cypriot administration could garner more international support for their position on the Cyprus issue thanks to its expanding partnerships, notably with the EU and the United States.