A peace treaty is still out of reach for South Caucasus rivals Azerbaijan and Armenia despite significant diplomatic progress a year after Baku launched a lightning offensive against Armenian separatists in the Karabakh region.
As world leaders met last year at the U.N. General Assembly, Azerbaijan swiftly liberated Karabakh, a mountainous area that is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, illegally seized by ethnic Armenian separatists over three decades ago.
The entire population of nearly 120,000 people returned to Armenia after rejecting a reintegration program by Azerbaijan. Armenia – weakened after Azerbaijan liberated its lands illegally occupied by Armenian forces in the Second Karabakh War in 2020 and also embittered by the lack of support from traditional backer Russia – months later entered into talks with Azerbaijan on normalizing relations.
While some in the Armenian diaspora in the West have sought vengeance against Azerbaijan over what they perceive as "ethnic cleansing," Western governments have focused on reaching a peace agreement in hopes of avoiding another war.
Baku says its final Karabakh offensive was in full compliance with international law and it invited the region’s Armenians to take part in a reintegration program, which they refused.
The top diplomats of Armenia and Azerbaijan are again visiting the U.N. General Assembly, this time not for mutual recriminations but for talks together with their Western counterparts.
The United States and France have been on the forefront of diplomatic efforts, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expected to meet jointly with his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts.
Both countries insist they are committed to peace despite obstacles to overcome.
"Armenia has shown multiple times its sincere hope and determination to reach a just and durable peace in the region, with the establishment of relations between the two countries on the basis of respect for their sovereignty and territorial integrity," said Hasmik Tolmajyan, the Armenian ambassador in Paris.
Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed earlier this year to delineate a 12-kilometer (7-mile) stretch of border – but differences have emerged on how to finalize the understanding.
Armenia wants to sign an agreement but Azerbaijan is opposed, "using the well-known diplomatic principle that nothing is agreed to until everything is agreed to," Azerbaijani analyst Togroul Djuvarli said.
Azerbaijan's ambassador in Paris, Leyla Abdullayeva, said that the two sides agreed on nearly 80% of the points in a draft peace treaty.
"But the outstanding issues," she said, cannot be "swept under the rug."
Azerbaijan wants Armenia to implement its promise to allow transportation access to its exclave of Nakhchivan, which is separated by Armenian territory, so as to offer a ground link with its exclave and with Türkiye, Azerbaijan's key ally.
Azerbaijan also wants Armenia to remove from its Constitution a stated goal of unifying with Karabakh.
Some Western diplomats have voiced skepticism over Azerbaijan's demand, saying a constitutional change in Armenia would require a referendum – a long, uncertain process.
Potentially adding to momentum is COP29, the annual U.N. climate change talks that bring together officials from across the world, which will take place in the Azerbaijani capital Baku in November.
Armenian analyst Hakob Badalyan doubted a peace treaty would be ready in time for COP29.
"It's unlikely a peace agreement between Yerevan and Baku would come in the near future unless it's a simple document on general intentions rather than a broader peace," he said.
