Israel’s devastating war on Gaza has marked its first and bitter anniversary despite international calls for an urgent cease-fire.

NATO member Türkiye has been a traditional ally to Palestine but the more brutal Israeli attacks became, the harsher Ankara has made its criticism in the past year. It has condemned what it calls genocide, halted all trade with Israel and applied to join a genocide case against Israel at the World Court, which Israel rejects.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan says he is sad to see Muslim countries failing to take a more active stance against Israel, urging them to take economic, diplomatic and political measures to pressure Tel Aviv into accepting a cease-fire.

In addition to delivering humanitarian aid, his government has sought to rally international organizations, including the United Nations, NATO and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to both restrain Israel and encourage cooperation between Palestinian factions, most notably between Hamas and the Fatah movement.

"Going back over the last year, starting with Erdoğan’s speech at the U.N. General Assembly, we can see that these efforts were obstructed by especially the U.S. and the U.N. Security Council’s attitude and unfortunately the desired results weren’t achieved," said Çağrı Erhan, the rector of Altınbaş University and a member of the Turkish Presidency’s Security and Foreign Policies Council.

Against these odds, Türkiye continues its diplomatic blitz on the issue. "Despite being left out of cease-fire negotiations Türkiye has maintained close contact with brokers Egypt and Qatar while trying to motivate Hamas for a possible cease-fire through its bilateral dialogue channel with its political leadership," explained Haydar Oruç, a Middle East researcher who previously served as Levant Expert at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies (ORSAM).

Erhan points out that one of the most important efforts Türkiye has made was bringing together Palestinian factions for a united front. "Ankara has made several pushes to that end, especially before (Hamas leader) Ismail Haniyeh was killed but following his assassination Türkiye is now taking various facilitative steps for a rapprochement between Hamas and the Fatah movement, especially following Mahmoud Abbas’ visit to Ankara in August," Erhan said.

Türkiye also stresses the importance of the unity of countries, especially Arab and Muslim countries to stop Israeli aggression. "Islamic countries should wake up, see the peril and increase the cooperation. All Islamic countries should adopt a common stance against the Israeli occupation. The only step to stop Israel’s arrogance, banditry and state terrorism is the alliance of Islamic countries," President Erdoğan said in September.

Mustafa Caner, an expert on Türkiye-Middle East relations currently managing Kriter Magazine at the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA), says the conflict also demonstrated Türkiye’s "valuable" stance for reforms at the United Nations as resolutions of the U.N. Security Council and international law organs’ decisions have been dismissed by Israel, highlighting the crisis in the international system. Under Erdoğan, Türkiye has been a major proponent of a just, new international system giving more say on international affairs to countries outside those in the Security Council.

A staunch supporter

Türkiye’s foreign policy in the past two decades was a mix of new hostilities and friendships. However, one thing remains certain: The endeavor to maintain relations with countries in conflict with each other, be it Russia and Ukraine or any other. Israel was one of them, though Türkiye historically supported the Palestinian cause.

As a matter of fact, just days before the new round of the conflict started in 2023, Erdoğan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met in New York for new steps to normalize relations that had soured over Israel’s past policies toward Palestinians. Oruç says the only thing that changed for Türkiye after October 7, 2023, was its approach to Israel.

"Since Oct. 7, Türkiye has called on all sides to exercise caution, stressing that the conflict didn’t begin on Oct. 7 but is a result of Israel’s occupational policy since 1948, rejecting the notion that Hamas is solely responsible for everything and arguing that Palestinian groups too are defending their lands in line with international law," Oruç said.

"Türkiye has traditionally always had a Palestine policy wherein it has never accepted Palestine’s occupation. It has been working for years for an independent Palestinian state with territorial integrity and Jerusalem as its capital. In that vein, Türkiye has always been active within the United Nations, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and for cooperation between the Palestinian factions," Erhan says.

"In the aftermath of Oct. 7, Türkiye stepped in to first and foremost stop Israel’s attacks that have reached the levels of genocide in the Gaza Strip, working with various international organizations, including NATO, and raising the issue in bilateral meetings but most importantly taking steps to raise a cease-fire as soon as possible and deliver humanitarian aid to the region," he added.

Unity for Palestine

Unlike most countries in the West where people differ with their governments on the issue and exhibit support for Palestinians, the Turkish public endorses official policy against Israeli attacks on Palestinian civilians. The past year has seen major rallies of solidarity with Palestinians and one day before the first anniversary of the conflict, similar demonstrations were scheduled to be held in Istanbul and the capital Ankara.

The Palestinian cause has been one of the few causes of unity with the government for the Turkish opposition parties, despite some politicians adhering to Israel’s rhetoric in defining Hamas as a terrorist group. The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) occasionally changed its tone on the matter and nowadays raises its voice more for Palestinians.

Erhan says the Palestinian issue has always been something above politics in Türkiye but CHP, the oldest party in the country, has apparently changed its "one-sided" perspective on the issue.

"With genocide becoming apparent, we can see the opposition too has begun supporting the government’s traditional policy. The best example of this was the declaration all parties signed at Parliament," Erhan said, referring to a motion to condemn Israeli attacks passed unanimously by the Parliament recently.

"Türkiye has always wanted an independent, free, sovereign Palestinian state and while its efforts continue on that front, the domestic display of unity must also be bolstered. Opposition parties must now be louder than ever on this," Erhan says.

"Türkiye’s existing Palestine policy has always been the same. It has only begun seeing relative changes with the AK Party government starting in 2002. Until the Mavi Marmara incident, AK Party administrations have sought to maintain measured relations with Israel. After the July 15 coup attempt and its perpetrators were rid from Turkish politics, a general consensus emerged about support of Palestine and controlled normalization with Israel but Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and what happened in Gaza at that time have made that normalization unsustainable," Haydar Oruç says. Oruç said the Turkish opposition had its share of hesitations in this period but largely accepted the government’s policies. He pointed out the anti-Hamas rhetoric of some opposition parties with some even going as far as "accusing the Turkish government of being anti-Israel."

"Despite this opposition, the Turkish public has been very aware of what’s happening in Gaza and threw its support behind the government to stop Israeli aggression. In this case, opposition circles in disagreement with the government about Israel are aware that they will not get any public support and on the contrary, they would be criticized by the public," Oruç stated, noting that this pushed them to avert adopting a hardline stance that would harm Ankara’s Palestine policy.

What the future holds

Oct. 7 was a turning point for Hamas, Palestinians in general and Israel. There is no easy solution in sight to the conflict, which has claimed thousands of innocent lives. But one thing appears certain. Israel is intent on pushing the conflict far beyond its borders or the borders of the lands it occupies. Its attacks on Lebanon to target Hezbollah and strikes in Syria are a testament to the claims of expansionism the Netanyahu administration pursues.

"Türkiye has repeatedly expressed its concern about a regional spread of the war. With a domino effect, this could turn into a major conflict, not just between Israel and Lebanon or Israel and Iran but one that could set the entire region on fire and draw in the intervention of global powers. Therefore, Türkiye’s most significant effort here is to prevent the spread of the war. But Israeli aggression must be stopped for that to happen," Erhan says. He cited Türkiye’s participation in the genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) as the biggest step to that extent.

"For Türkiye, a verdict that could put pressure on the U.S., which would in turn push Israel to a cease-fire, is the primary thing to do," he says.

Yet, developments point out that Israel will not stop soon. "The die seems to have been cast as Israel’s response to Iran and Iran’s response in turn with missiles are pushing the situation out of control," Erhan says. "It doesn’t seem so possible that it could be prevented either because escalating this tension is important for internal dynamics in both Israel and Iran. Especially in Iran, conflict with Israel helps maintain internal unity. As for Israel, the Netanyahu government cares about tensions with Iran to overshadow its massacres in Gaza, which is precisely what has happened. The U.S. has already tuned out what’s happening in Gaza and after Iran fired the missiles, it declared its express support for Israel, which is what Netanyahu wants the most," he added.

At this point, Türkiye remains vigilant as Erdoğan recently said that Israel may set its sights on Türkiye as well after Lebanon.

Mustafa Caner says the escalation threatens Türkiye’s security because "Türkiye knows that the ideas that guide Israel’s actions are not lawful but theological. It will continue its occupation and attacks until it feels safe, an entirely subjective and irrational goal."

"Israel is eyeing territory in Lebanon and further invasion of Syria, which would bring the war to Türkiye’s door. I don’t foresee such a scenario unfolding soon since Lebanese resistance cannot be so easily broken but this is Israel’s long-term plan and Türkiye must be prepared for it. It must straighten its borderline and ties with its neighbors, especially with Syria," Caner said.

Since unrest broke out in 2011 in its southern neighbor Syria, Türkiye severed ties with the regime based in Damascus. This, however, recently changed with Ankara’s call for normalization with the Assad regime. The Assad regime, in turn, sent positive signals for normalization. Caner says this is an urgent matter. "Similarly, Türkiye must cultivate cooperation and dialogue with Iran and Saudi Arabia about steps against Israel. Türkiye must make effective use of regional dialogue as it does international mechanisms," he said.

"Israel is trying to trigger a major war that would plunge the region in chaos and it’s become apparent Türkiye must cooperate with regional actors except for Israel to prevent such a war or end any potential war with minimum damage," Haydar Oruç says.

Caner points out the possibility of the PKK/YPG terrorist group controlling swathes of land in Syria’s north, acting with Israel. "This would pose a massive threat to Türkiye," he said.

"It’s obvious the unnamed regional war has come closer and its spreading to Turkish borders is a simple matter. Some 25,000 Turks living in Lebanon and the presence of Turkmen tribes there necessitate a close monitoring of the situation there," Haydar Oruç said. "In case of Lebanon’s invasion, it’s also possible that tensions might break out since Lebanese natural gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, which have been portioned by the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and whose operational licenses have been Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO), are very close to Türkiye and are in fact borders," Oruç says.

"Therefore, should the legitimate government of a sovereign U.N. member state like Lebanon ask Türkiye for help, Türkiye would not remain idle or avoid increasing the Lebanese military’s capacity, supporting its air force or sending several troop units," he stated.

"Such a policy would not be welcomed by Türkiye’s western allies who will no doubt be critical, but it’s clear Türkiye would not be so concerned about it, considering said allies have failed to support Türkiye against the security threats from its southern borders or their absolute silence about what has been happening in Gaza since Oct. 7," Oruç added.

Türkiye is also a member of NATO, of which the majority of members openly support Israel. On a question of whether Türkiye would have to choose between the military bloc and standing against Israel, Erhan says NATO itself is divided on the matter. "There are several member states opposed to Israel’s actions in Gaza, far from the U.S. and Britain. Furthermore, this major tension right next to our south would of course impact Türkiye, which already faces a serious threat from the PKK/YPG in northern Iraq and Syria. Türkiye would take the necessary measures per its own security needs in such a scenario," Erhan said.