Looking back 10 years, we can easily say that the current state of solar photovoltaics (PV), which has reached nearly 9 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity, has exceeded expectations. In terms of growth, solar PV has outperformed other renewable energy markets. But above all, to understand today and make sound predictions for the future, we must first objectively understand historical developments.

The renewable energy tariff of 13.3 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh) for solar PV by the beginning of 2011 can be considered a significant milestone in the market's rapid growth over the next few years. Clearly, the solar PV market has expanded not only in Türkiye but in all emerging and developed countries, with significant growth rates in the last decade. Looking back, we can say that Türkiye entered this development at an ideal time when technology was becoming increasingly affordable and efficiencies were improving.

Although a 600 MW license was granted in 2015, the real catalyst for growth was the 2012 issuance of the regulation regarding "license-exempt electricity generation." With falling prices and the Renewable Energy Support Mechanism (YEKDEM) becoming more appealing as the exchange rate rose, many different types of investors from various backgrounds began investing in solar PV. Until 2017, the market had shown remarkable and consistent growth figures for an emerging market, such as 123.3% in 2014, 518.9% in 2015, 234.6% in 2016 and 310.9% in 2017. Then, following some fundamental changes in legislation, we saw a significant decrease in market figures after 2017. These changes were toward electricity generation with coal, and they reversed again last year with the ratification of the Paris Agreement by the National Assembly.

The goals

With the 180-degree turn in six years, the only comparable year, along with the Solar3GW target of "3 GW each year," was 2017. At the time, the solar market had grown by 2.6 GW. In the last two years of rapid growth, the regulatory authority increased distribution fees four times and switched the support scheme from YEKDEM to excess electricity sales based on the electricity tariff subscription type for a license-exempt generation. This slowed the rate of growth while also extending the periods of return on investment. The goal of all of these changes was to make the distinction between self-consumption and commercial projects, or licensed and license-exempt projects, sharper.

As the first YEKDEM ended, there was a surge in growth in 2021, as many investors rushed to complete their projects before YEKDEM expired. Aside from that, the market had grown slowly due to the granted 600 MW licenses and Renewable Energy Resource Areas (YEKAs). The first tender for YEKA-solar power was issued in 2017, and 800 out of a total of 1,000 MW have been installed to date. Two more YEKA tenders followed the first one in 2021 and 2022 for a total of 2,000 MWs, but these projects will not be completed for at least a couple of years.

As Solar3GW, we believe that we are on the verge of an energy revolution led by solar PV and that we have the resource potential to add at least 3 GW to Türkiye's total installed capacity each year. The regulatory authority has enabled net metering between commercial, industrial and residential customers' consumption and generation facilities, regardless of which distribution company they are connected to. This is a very promising step forward in self-consumption, allowing high-energy consumers to hedge against rising electricity costs in the future.

Promising developments

Meanwhile, another promising development was the law for solar PV/wind power generation with battery storage. This will pave the way for more dynamic, free-market conditions. This is another development that we strongly recommend for market development as a business model. Furthermore, we believe that the Turkish solar PV market should take advantage of green power purchase agreements (PPA) through the addition of new capacity, which will serve as leverage for a well-functioning and growing market.

Furthermore, Türkiye must also make use of its land and water resources through agri-PV and floating-PV applications. We will be able to obtain a high return on electricity by using only a small portion of these resources, especially in these times of energy scarcity. If we install floating-PV on 15% of the total surface area of Türkiye's largest 30 lakes, we get 160 GW more solar power; similarly, 0.1% of total agricultural land gets 12 GW more solar power than agri-PV, whereas agriculture and electricity generation can be exercised simultaneously with synergy.

As we face the harsh effects of climate change and an energy crisis, we must act responsibly and face the challenges of efficiently utilizing all of our clean energy resources. Without a doubt, solar PV will take the lead among renewable energy sources due to its advantages in levelized electricity costs, scalability and a variety of application areas.