The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah started on Oct. 8, 2023, and continued for about 11 months in a relatively stable state, without exceeding a certain threshold. However, on Sept. 17, 2024, the pager attacks took place, which caused great repercussions not only in Lebanon but all over the world. The attacks, which coincided with the period I was in Beirut, caused thousands of simultaneous explosions across the country, bringing the 11-month-old conflict to an unprecedented escalation. The very next day after the explosions, hundreds of wireless devices were detonated at the same time again. The attacks, which killed dozens of people and wounded 3,500, marked a turning point in the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict.

On Sept. 19, 2024, there was a deep silence in Beirut. Hezbollah, which had made a statement on the first day of the pager explosions, did not make any statements after the second wave of attacks. The Lebanese people were locked in on a speech by Hassan Nasrallah, the former secretary-general of Hezbollah. When the speech began, I was sitting in an open area near a group of university students who were watching Nasrallah's speech online.

As the speech was in full swing, an unusual activity began in the skies over Beirut. Israeli jets flew low overhead and produced sonic booms. Two violent sonic booms were followed by people shouting in fear. However, as if to show they were unafraid, university students chanted slogans and shouted "takbir." They were joined by people nearby. However, the enthusiasm of the young people was not reflected in the speech. In general, the Hezbollah secretary-general indicated that Hezbollah would not respond to the attacks in a way that would lead to a full-scale war. Nasrallah said that Israel would be defeated if it crossed the border, with the subtext that it would not be us who crossed the border.

After the speech, I was a little relieved thinking that there would not be a full-blown war. I was wrong.

Nasrallah dies, invasion begins

I was under the misconception that Israel would be content with loud attacks unless Hezbollah gave a serious response. However, the day after the speech, Israel launched its most violent attack in Beirut since the killing of Hezbollah's senior commander Fuad Shukr in July 2024. Hezbollah's senior commander Ibrahim Aqil and dozens of Lebanese were killed in the attack on Beirut.

Since this attack, Israel has continued its assassinations without giving Hezbollah a chance to recover. Almost every day Israel has assassinated a senior official of Hezbollah. Sept. 27 was Nasrallah's turn, Hezbollah's top figure. Beirut was subjected to perhaps the most severe air attack in its history. So much so that even though we were 7-8 kilometers away, my cameraman and I thought the bombs were falling right next to us. We prepared our recording devices and tried to understand where we had been hit. Eighty tonnes of bombs were dropped on the bunker where Nasrallah and some senior Hezbollah commanders were meeting.

The attack was followed by outrage and information pollution. At first, many Lebanese did not believe the rumors that the attack targeted the secretary-general of Hezbollah. They were sure that their leader had survived the attack. However, the day after the attack, Hezbollah confirmed the news of his death, devastating his supporters, who until then had hoped that Hezbollah was still strong. In the streets, women began to cry and mourn, shouting. People were crying as if they had lost a family member. After 10 days of Israeli attacks, the devastating effect of the attacks was almost like a mass nervous breakdown.

Israel intensified its attacks after the assassination. Faced with no serious response or resistance, Israel set its sights on Lebanese territory. The lack of deterrence by Iran and its proxies made Israel more eager to cross the Lebanese border. At the beginning of October, Israel launched a ground offensive in southern Lebanon. However, Israel's plans did not go as expected. Although Israel had air and intelligence superiority, it could not establish a clear advantage over Hezbollah on the ground. Hezbollah, which suffered serious casualties at the administrative level, established a defense line in the south with thousands of members willing to fight at the grassroots level. The mountainous geography of Lebanon limited Israel's ability to maneuver. Resorting to guerrilla warfare tactics, Hezbollah did not disintegrate as some experts believed. On the contrary, it saw the ground attacks as a long-awaited opportunity to fight.

Lebanon in terror

Since the beginning of the ground attacks, Israel has been bombing Beirut every day. The Dahieh neighborhood of Beirut, which has a densely populated Shiite population, started to turn into rubble with the successive attacks. The attacks on both the south of Lebanon and the capital city led to a wave of migration within the country. An estimated 1.2 million people have been internally displaced. However, the largest impact of these attacks was the effect of demographic change under Lebanon’s fragile political atmosphere.

Lebanon is a country where religious communities are distributed homogeneously due to the devastating civil war that started in 1975 and lasted for nearly 15 years. People fleeing from the conflict migrated to the regions where their own sects were strong and this caused clear boundaries between sects. It can be said that almost every town and neighborhood belongs to a community in today's Lebanon.

The migration of the majority Shiite population due to Israeli attacks threatens this sensitive demographic structure. It is feared that the displaced people, who are not welcomed in towns and cities where different communities live densely, may lead to civil unrest. There are even theories that Israel is deliberately causing these migrations and that it will take advantage of the turmoil in Lebanon and invade the south. The pressure on the Lebanese army, whose power is limited, is also increasing. It is criticized for not intervening in the conflict in the south and not protecting Beirut.

Lebanon as been going through its most difficult days since the civil war due to direct attacks by Israeli troops in the south, airstrikes in many places, including Beirut, and increasing civil unrest. The Lebanese government recommends diplomatic channels to resolve the conflict, while the Lebanese army does not want to get involved in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Unfortunately, in this period of changing balance, both in Lebanon and in the region, civilians are suffering the most.