Russia has been waging a war against Ukraine. Commentators and political analysts share their valuable opinions with regard to the Russian war strategy. Some believe that it will be the end of the Russian Federation, leading new republics to arise from this crisis. Others predict that Russian President Vladimir Putin will reestablish a new version of the Soviet Union. My hypothesis is that Russia has one big goal in this partial war.

It was predicted and propagated that Russia would be able to take over Ukraine in two days. However, the conflict is approaching its third month. The Kremlin would like to prolong the invasion as long as possible to spread fear among Europeans because the war can be portrayed as a fire in the backyard of Europe with a flashpoint in Kyiv, which is only 14 hours from Berlin. That is why this bloody confrontation requires serious attention. Otherwise, the fire may engulf all the neighbors. To a considerable extent, Putin has intimidated Europeans.

This conflict may create a new outlook in international politics in which friends become rivals while turning enemies into friends. In this respect, Venezuela and Iran have been two enemies of the U.S. and the West for years. However, there is a grand factor that may eradicate these long-lasting hostilities: energy dependence. Iran and Venezuela are among the richest countries in natural gas reserves.

European countries have become excessively dependent on Russian natural gas, getting almost half of their gas supplies from Russia. For instance, Bosnia-Herzegovina and North Macedonia import 100% of their natural gas from Russia, while this accounts for roughly 50% of the total gas imports of Germany and Italy. Recently, Lithuania abruptly cut off the gas supply from Russia.

Venezuela’s position

The relations between the U.S. and Venezuela have not been smooth for a long time. Washington has sanctioned Venezuela, by accusing its President Nicholas Maduro of human rights violations and more. The ties touched a new low following the U.S. recognition of Venezuela’s opposition leader Juan Guaido as the country’s interim president during the term of former U.S. President Donald Trump.

Recently, the two countries are conducting talks to reestablish relations, which means an enormous alternative supplier of natural gas for the Western Hemisphere. The positive conclusion of this long-term friction will rapidly ramp up the trade volume between Venezuela, the U.S. and the West.

The Iran aspect

Ever since I can remember, Tehran and Washington has been in a stalemate. The decadeslong strife between Iran and the U.S. has regularly occupied the global agenda. There are American-imposed sanctions against Iran mainly due to Tehran's nuclear program and human rights abuses.

Recently, several nuclear talks between the White House and Iranian and Venezuelan authorities have taken place to conclude deals that are satisfactory for all parties. A number of positive discourses and at the same time accusations were announced by the three sides, which signal a potential partial resolution for now.

What could happen?

As far as I have observed, every leader pulls in one direction in Europe. Hence, the leaderless and undirected European world experiences the maximum stress due to the ambiguity in political, economic and security policies while allowing the U.S. to pull the strings from energy security to the Ukraine crisis. Imagine that the West fails to secure a deal with Venezuelans and Iranians, which may cause Western nations to face the risk of a gas shortage. In other words, millions of people in Europe may not be able to their heat homes, and sectors depending on natural gas may face closures. Therefore, Europe and the U.S. should avoid paradoxical remarks and moves aimed at securing lesser costs amid seemingly underestimated but perilous energy and food crises. These crises have the dangerous potential to ignite an all-out war. Apparently, interests in Ukraine are not tantamount to energy and food security.

In a scenario in which the natural gas of Iran and Venezuela are welcomed, Russia’s already falling natural gas prices will drop even further, which means the Russian gas sales will be undervalued. It is more advantageous to buy it with a lower rate while keeping them at the diplomacy table. Moreover, the world will find it easier to purchase from Venezuela and Iran without embargoes. The reliance of allies on Russia will be cut off significantly if the U.S. and the West abandon amateurish policies.

Simultaneously, it does not seem beneficial to simply sanction something you need the least but that your allies need the most. Russia and Iran are direct neighboring countries to most of NATO's allies. Trade must continue at a certain level to find ways to alleviate the tension. Otherwise, all sides will be bearing the cost when the people who are already fed up with price hikes due to the COVID-19 pandemic hit the streets across the world. Therefore, the full isolation of a nation, for example, Russia, could create an even more aggressive Moscow domestically and internationally. Furthermore, it is impractical to isolate a country completely as the world has a limited number of alternatives.