"Our top priority is to achieve results on important policy issues. I am not thinking about dissolving the lower house for a general election at the moment," replied Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at a press conference while replying to a question about the rumor about the snap elections.

Kishida appears to be downplaying the prospect of a snap election, despite his recent success at the G-7 Summit in Japan's Hiroshima and a surge in public support. However, given the favorable social and political conditions, Kishida may be enticed to seek the early validation of the electorate. Kishida’s resurgence can be credited to a string of fortunate events, prompting his supporters to encourage him for a bold decision on snap elections. In view of the transient nature of political momentum, his close associates are urging him to seize the favorable conditions before they fade away.

However, Kishida appears to be too cautious before making any major change in his tactical plan. His current stance reveals a cautious optimism, guardedly navigating the political landscape and assessing the risks and rewards. The allure of solidifying his mandate and ensuring a stable future may prove too tempting to resist, especially when bolstered by recent accomplishments and the growing swell of public approval. In these uncertain times in Japanese politics, where the unexpected is the norm, Kishida finds himself at a crucial juncture. The path he chooses will determine not only his political fate but also the trajectory of Japan's future. There is immense pressure on Kishida to act decisively and capitalize on the current wave of support.

The persistent murmurings in the Diet surrounding Prime Minister Kishida's contemplation of an early election have metamorphosed into a fervent buzz.

This palpable excitement has surged in the political discourse, as Kishida's popularity has experienced a notable ascent, defying expectations and capturing the attention of both analysts and the public alike. Formerly hovering at a modest 33% for a four-month period leading up to February, his public support has since undergone a renaissance, a resurgence that has now reached a respectable number as revealed by a recent opinion poll conducted after Kishida’s key role as host of the G-7 Summit. In a comprehensive nationwide survey conducted last week, a remarkable revival in the Cabinet's approval rate emerged that surprised everyone including Kishida himself.

For the first time in an eight-month period, the approval rating soared beyond the 50% threshold, settling at an impressive 56%. Within the corridors of power, both government officials and members of the ruling LDP find solace in this resounding endorsement. Undoubtedly, the government's successive diplomatic successes, particularly its palpable achievements associated with the G-7 Summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s trip to Japan and improving relations with Seoul, have garnered widespread admiration. This recognition underscores the prevailing sentiment that Kishida is demonstrating a proactive approach on the international stage. As such, these findings reflect the Japanese public’s approval of the Kishida regime's prowess. Forecasts project a further upward trajectory in these figures, buoyed by the success of the Hiroshima summit. With these winds of change propelling him, Kishida may well embark upon the electoral journey.

Ties with South Korea

While Kishida has firmly rejected the clamor for immediate elections, analysts discern a subtler nuance to his response. Rather than outright dismissal, it is perceived as a strategic maneuver, attuned to a propitious confluence of factors that favor Kishida's prospective campaign. His prominence in the international arena, notably during the recent summit, has cast a flattering spotlight on his leadership. Moreover, Kishida has skillfully steered a marked amelioration in relations with South Korea, earning the appreciation of the Japanese public. Previous administrations had left Japan-South Korea bilateral ties in a woeful state, but a tangible breakthrough has materialized, propelling both countries toward a more positive trajectory. The significant improvement has resonated with the citizens, bolstering their perception of Kishida. These circumstances, combined, create a propitious backdrop for Kishida to make an adventurous call for the snap elections. Historically, in Japan, advocating for an escalation in defense spending has been a precarious political tightrope, susceptible to public resentment.

However, the recent actions by the Kishida government to substantially bolster funding for the Self-Defense Forces has defied this conventional understanding, encountering little resistance. The inconceivable absence of opposition can be attributed to a prevailing sentiment among the Japanese populace, one that recognizes the urgent necessity of fortifying the country's defenses in the face of mounting ostensible threats from three proximate neighbors: China, North Korea and Russia. The palpable escalation in their antagonistic postures, it seems, has left most Japanese convinced of the imperative to bolster Japan's security apparatus. In this climate of heightened regional tensions, the public's acquiescence to increased defense expenditures underscores their collective understanding that a robust defense is paramount to safeguarding national interests. The quest for enhanced defense capabilities encounters a minor stumbling block – the crucial matter of securing funds. Kishida, well aware of this financial conundrum, may resort to early elections to resolve this resource allocation quandary.

The urgency to address this issue adds yet another compelling reason for Kishida to consider a snap election. The prevailing mood of positivity, permeating society at large, presents a propitious backdrop for Kishida's political aspirations. The amalgamation of fiscal considerations and the palpable national mood underscores the critical factors that weigh on Kishida's decision-making process. With the persistent ascent in public support, whispers of an early dissolution of Japan's lower house have been circulating within the ranks of the LDP. The party, keenly attuned to the trajectory of its approval rating, may soon find itself grappling with massive internal demands for such a move. In response, opposition parties have also swiftly accelerated their preparations, cognizant of the possibility of a snap election on the horizon. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the leading opposition force, has wasted no time in signaling its intent to expedite the selection of its candidates. As the conditions for an early dissolution gradually align, the political landscape teeters on the edge of potential upheaval.

The convergence of escalating public support and the opposition's proactive stance portends an electoral environment. Kishida's administration, attuned to this prevailing sentiment, may eventually find itself on relatively stable ground to call for early elections before the closing of the ongoing Diet session on June 21.