France has pulled their top negotiators from the COP29 summit in Azerbaijan, intensifying divisions at a climate conference already disrupted by Donald Trump’s election. The French move came following a speech by Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev at the event, where he accused French President Emmanuel Macron's "regime" of "brutally" killing citizens during recent protests in New Caledonia. Aliyev also referred to France's Pacific island territories as "colonies," pointing to nuclear tests conducted in French Polynesia and Algeria.
Paris accused Azerbaijan of meddling in its internal affairs by escalating tensions in its overseas territories and dependencies, such as New Caledonia. Additionally, Macron has opted not to attend COP29. Azerbaijan has rejected accusations of interference, while Aliyev criticized France for keeping Corsica and its distant overseas island territories "under the colonial yoke."
Before Macron’s tenure, Azerbaijan and France engaged in mutually beneficial cooperation. From 1995 to 2019, French companies invested $2.2 billion in Azerbaijan's economy, with $2 billion allocated to the oil sector and $194.1 million to other industries. In return, Azerbaijan invested $2.6 billion in the French economy.
These developments led France to maintain a relatively balanced stance in the South Caucasus. A clear example was former French President Nicolas Sarkozy's visit to Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia in 2011. However, this balanced approach has shifted in recent years, with French foreign policy in the region moving increasingly in Armenia's favor. Key factors driving this change include Nikol Pashinyan's rise to power in Armenia in 2018, the weakening of Armenian-Russian relations, the Second Karabakh War and the intensifying tensions between France and both Türkiye and Azerbaijan, all of which have pushed France toward a more unbalanced approach in the South Caucasus.
It is important to note that France is home to approximately 650,000 Armenians, the largest Armenian diaspora in Europe and the third-largest globally, after Russia and the United States. Traditional Armenian parties, particularly the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun), along with Armenian lobbies and associations, wield significant influence in France's political, social and media spheres.
On June 18, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu announced the sale of 36 Caesar self-propelled howitzers to Armenia. This decision quickly triggered harsh reactions from both Baku and Moscow. The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry described the sale as a "provocative" move that could turn the region into a "hotbed of war" once again.
Azerbaijan’s strong response is linked to Baku’s deep hostility towards France, stemming from Paris' firm support for Armenia during the three-decade-long struggle over Karabakh. This conflict concluded late last year with Azerbaijan's decisive victory over Armenian forces.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has attempted to exclude France from the ongoing Karabakh peace process. He has also sought to challenge France in other ways, condemning what he called French neocolonialism and promoting the formation of the “Baku Initiative Group against French Colonialism.”
Baku is positioning itself as a champion and advocate for island nations and other small countries engaged in liberation movements against European powers. This approach aligns with Azerbaijan's history within the Non-Aligned Movement, established during the Cold War, to protect the interests of developing nations.
France's policy toward Armenia is motivated by the aim of maintaining a presence in the South Caucasus amid a changing geopolitical landscape. Paris wields broader influence as a key power within the European Union and has been actively advocating for greater Western support for Yerevan. In April, Pashinyan met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to finalize a $350 million aid agreement.
Although tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have eased to some extent, evidenced by their efforts to negotiate a peace deal – the outcome remains uncertain.
Considering the stakes, the EU should reconsider its approach to the South Caucasus. Even if European countries are not directly involved in the Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations, they will play a crucial role in ensuring the implementation of any agreement on the ground.
For years, a flaw in Western strategy was the neglect or compartmentalization of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, leaving it to a small group of diplomats while other officials focused on generally easier matters in Yerevan. Without a proactive approach from Western actors to prevent further violence and encourage the parties to reach an agreement, the unresolved conflict is likely to resurge with even greater intensity in the future.
