Has World War III started or not? Pundits have different answers to this question. Some say it has already begun and is ongoing, while others will disagree with this idea, claiming that we are far from World War III. I am not sure how many people will agree with me, but my argument is that a small-scale world war is ongoing, mainly as a proxy war. On the surface, the war is between Russia and Ukraine, but look deeper, and one can see that the whole of the West is behind Ukraine and indirectly fights on the battlefield with their weapons, not to mention economic and diplomatic sanctions, propaganda tools, etc.
There is no doubt that Russia is the invader, so they are the guilty side. Yet, few people will oppose Western countries’ provocations to pull Russia into the war. Setting aside what Americans and Europeans have done in the last two years, their greenlight to Ukraine to use Western-made weapons recently shows that they do not want the war to end. From U.S. President Joe Biden to French President Emmanuel Macron, almost all leaders make sure that their missiles will not force Russia to withdraw and enable Ukraine to win the war. This is not to say that Ukraine should give up defending its occupied lands. Yet, pouring fuel on the fire will not ensure Ukraine’s security, either.
However, on the other hand, the West has not convinced us that it just wants to save Ukraine from Russia and has no plans of spreading war. They are smart enough to know that striking Russian targets inside Russia with Western missiles will further escalate tensions and incite the Russian government to use conventional nuclear weapons or at least increase its attacks on Ukraine. Claiming that North Korean soldiers fight alongside the Russian army can not be an excuse because their support for Ukraine is dozens of times more than that of North Korea to Russia.
Also, while Ukraine being unjustly invaded by Russia is a plausible reason, the very same Western countries relentlessly support Israel in committing genocide in Gaza. Isn’t Israel the invader? Isn’t it violating all moral and legal norms and rules introduced by Western powers? If the aim is to end unjust occupations, why do they want to stop Russia but not Israel? Is it because Israel is a friend of theirs?
Assuming for a while that, indeed, a full-scale World War III erupts in such double standards, which side might other countries take? Personalizing the answer to this question, I argue that, without a doubt, the trans-Atlantic region and countries like Australia, South Korea and Japan will be on the same side. Supposing that Russia and China will ally in a likely war, few countries will align with them. For example, Latin American states might passively support the Russian-Chinese bloc.
Most likely, some countries will be given carrots by Western countries as sticks will not be effective, and indeed, incentives will work. For example, most Arab states will probably position themselves in the Western bloc, though not fighting actively. However, the said support will not be welcomed by Arab people due to the Gaza genocide.
African states can be expected to take mostly the Western side, but their support will not be influential unless they send troops to the front. They will probably not send troops to fight. Eastern Europe, including the Balkans, may be on the Western side.
Finally, it is worth discussing the stance of Israel and Türkiye. Needless to say, Israel is in the Western bloc. However, it will hardly fight for the West. There is no instance in history where Israelis fought for their Western allies. It is easy to compare what the West did for Israel and the other way around and see what Israel did for the U.S. and Europe. Thus, it will remain a passive supporter of the West.
Since Türkiye feels betrayed, it will prefer not to take sides. While Turkish people get inspired by Western countries' development and have positive views about them, they do not forget wrongdoings. From arms sanctions to the support for Israel’s genocide in Gaza, many factors make Turks suspicious of Western countries. Turks ask why their army can not have Patriots but can quickly obtain Russia-made S-400 missiles. Or, why is the American military, an ally of NATO, on the other side of the border, literally with the PKK terrorist group's Syrian wing YPG, but not on this side of the border?
Yet, despite estrangements, Türkiye will most likely be a supporter of the Western bloc, including donation of arms, though there may not be boots on the ground. A Turkish proverb explains Türkiye’s stance very well; “A wolf survives the winter but does not forget the frost.”