While the Islamic Republic is preparing for various outcomes in the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November, there is no question that former U.S. President Donald Trump's victory would bring significant challenges and pains for Tehran.

As the U.S. approaches the November 2024 presidential election, the race between Kamala Harris and Trump holds significant implications beyond domestic affairs, particularly for global geopolitics in the Middle East. The outcome will likely impact U.S. relations with Iran, a key issue in American foreign policy. A Trump victory could amount to returning to the hardline stance that previously strained Tehran.

In recent years, Iran has faced a severe economic crisis marked by high inflation and soaring prices, largely driven by U.S. sanctions. Following the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018, Trump reimposed and expanded sanctions, with a focus on Iran’s vital oil sector as part of his "maximum pressure" campaign. These measures caused Iran’s oil exports to plummet, falling to 300,000 barrels per day or less by 2019 as the U.S. intensified pressure on Tehran’s primary source of revenue. This sharp decline significantly impacted the Iranian government, whose oil income had previously accounted for roughly 70% of its revenues.

During his previous term, Trump also ordered the assassination of Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani, a pivotal figure in Iran's regional influence. This strike significantly weakened the Islamic Republic’s power projection in the Middle East. As a result, the Iranian regime may find it difficult, if not impossible, to engage in negotiations with a leader they hold responsible for Soleimani’s death.

Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has set his sights on reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to relieve sanctions, reengage with Western powers and boost trade to address the country’s economic problems. However, a critical question remains: How can Iran negotiate with the man responsible for General Soleimani’s killing? Also, the possibility of dealing with a Republican administration becomes even more difficult for Tehran. Moreover, without U.S. involvement, European and Arab nations are less likely to deepen ties or expand trade with Iran.

The pronouncing of Trump's victory in the upcoming election could send shock waves through Iran's financial markets and exert significant psychological pressure on the country. In the past, Iran’s financial market has proven highly sensitive to political developments and news concerning U.S.-Iran relations. Such a scenario could fuel further domestic unrest and growing discontent across the country.

Furthermore, due to recent tensions in the Middle East, especially between Israel and Iran's proxy groups, Iran’s regional position could be significantly impacted in Trump's second term. Republicans have also criticized the Biden-Harris administration for allowing Iran to increase oil exports and generate revenue, arguing that the flow of money to Tehran and its proxy groups has not been effectively disrupted under their leadership.

Trump said: "Iran was on the verge of bankruptcy. They had no money left. They had no money for Hamas, they had no money for Hezbollah, the people they're fighting now."

With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's aggressive stance toward Tehran following the surprise attack of Hamas against Israel in October 2024, the situation has become even more precarious for the Islamic Republic. A Trump-Netanyahu alliance could spell serious trouble for Iran. While President Joe Biden’s administration has worked to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East and act as a moderating influence on Netanyahu, Trump’s return to power could signal a much tougher approach. His hardline stance would likely embolden Netanyahu, resulting in more aggressive posturing towards Iran, painting a challenging picture for the country's future.

Biden and Harris are acutely aware that Netanyahu is likely hoping for a Trump victory in the upcoming presidential election, as Trump would be more eager to support Netanyahu in pursuing what is often referred to as "cutting the head of the snake" a direct reference to Iran. A Trump administration would likely embolden Netanyahu to take more aggressive actions in the region.

One of Trump's key actions in the Middle East during his first term was his effort to further isolate Iran. A significant part of this strategy was the Abraham Accords, aimed at normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab and Islamic countries. Bahrain, the UAE and Morocco were among those that joined the agreement. Should Trump win a second term, his administration would continue to expand and strengthen the Accords, bringing additional countries into the fold. This could result in even greater isolation for the Islamic Republic on the international stage.

While Iran is wary of seeing Trump return as U.S. president, the Trump campaign claims that Tehran poses "real and specific threats" and alleges efforts by Iran to assassinate the former president. In response, Trump has requested military aircraft and vehicles due to these perceived threats. Although there is no direct evidence linking Iran to two recent assassination attempts, Trump remains convinced that Iran is plotting against him, aiming to prevent his return to the White House. Iran has repeatedly vowed revenge for the killing of Soleimani, though officials publicly state that Trump should face justice in a court of law.

Trump appears not to be eager for regime change in Tehran and his focus is on controlling the country's nuclear development. Trump, known for his deal-making approach, aims to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon rather than pursuing regime change. He has long criticized the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), labeling it the "worst deal" in U.S. history, and has expressed a desire for a new agreement – one that bears his own mark rather than former President Barack Obama's. In fact, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a close ally of Trump, even dubbed it the "Trump Deal." In a recent podcast interview, Trump reiterated his opposition to efforts aimed at regime change in Iran.

Trump was speaking on the PBD Podcast and was asked by the host, Patrick Bet-David, whether he desires a change in Iran’s form of government and a restoration of the Shah. "We can’t get totally involved at all, you know. We can’t run ourselves, let’s face it," Trump said.

Iran likely favors Harris in the upcoming U.S. election, believing that a Democratic administration would provide more space for economic recovery and avoid the intense confrontations experienced during Trump's first term. On the other hand, if Trump returns to the White House, the key question is whether the Islamic Republic would be willing to negotiate with the man who ordered the killing of General Qassem Soleimani and imposed a policy of maximum pressure on Iran during his previous term.

The surprise Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 has further intensified U.S. perceptions of Iran, with many American politicians viewing Tehran as a supporter of Hamas and Hezbollah. As Israel’s closest ally, the U.S. – even under a Democratic administration – seems unlikely to pursue negotiations with Tehran while instability persists. However, compared to Trump, Harris may be seen as a less confrontational figure, offering Iran hope of returning to diplomatic successes like what they achieved during the Obama era.

Tensions between Tehran and Washington have steadily worsened, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu playing a key role in widening the gap. As long as regional conflict continues – driven by Netanyahu- there is little chance for compromise or diplomatic breakthroughs between Iran and the U.S.