As the United States approaches a critical election that could shape its foreign policy direction, Africa finds itself at the intersection of potential new economic opportunities, complex security challenges and a heightened global rivalry between the U.S. and China. With a vibrant young population, a wealth of natural resources and rapidly growing economies, Africa has become a major focus of international interest, often sparking competition among global powers vying for influence.
For African leaders and citizens, the stakes in this election are immense: a second Trump administration or a Harris presidency could bring markedly different approaches to the U.S.-Africa relationship. Amid these shifts, African nations must adopt proactive strategies to engage with the next U.S. administration and ensure that partnerships serve African interests.
Three critical areas where a new U.S. administration could significantly impact Africa’s trajectory should be explored: economic engagement, security cooperation and Africa's navigation of the U.S.-China rivalry. By examining these dynamics, African leaders can gain insights into how best to advance their domestic and continental priorities in a rapidly changing world.
If elected, Trump’s administration would likely focus on boosting U.S. business investments in Africa by removing regulatory barriers and creating more favorable conditions for American companies. Trump’s business background suggests that he might pursue deals that prioritize immediate returns, such as resource extraction and infrastructure projects, with clear benefits to U.S. firms.
His administration would likely support more private sector investments and fewer governmental aid programs, aligning with the belief that private capital and bilateral agreements would drive faster growth. This might benefit resource-rich countries and those with strong regulatory environments but risks leaving smaller economies or those without significant resources at a disadvantage.
Trump’s approach to trade, favoring bilateral deals over multilateral agreements, could have mixed consequences in Africa. Bilateral agreements often favor a stronger partner, meaning that African nations might struggle to secure equitable terms. However, the Trump administration has generally supported the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a key policy that has facilitated African exports to U.S. markets for two decades.
If reauthorized in 2025, the AGOA could offer African economies continued access to the U.S. market. However, without comprehensive, long-term strategies, Trump’s transactional approach may neglect pressing challenges such as infrastructure gaps, and education and technology investments, which are essential for sustained growth.
On the other hand, if Vice President Kamala Harris becomes the president, her administration could bring a more inclusive and sustainable development approach to U.S.-Africa relations. Building on the Biden administration’s emphasis on human rights, anti-corruption and capacity building, Harris may support initiatives that go beyond short-term economic gains.
For instance, she has shown interest in fostering cultural and creative industries in Africa, which could provide a major boost to the technology and arts sectors that often lack consistent investment. Harris could leverage the "Prosper Africa" initiative, aimed at increasing two-way trade and investment, and strengthen U.S. support for small African enterprises, potentially offering African countries more control over their own economic futures.
However, the ultimate impact of the Harris presidency depends on the administration’s ability to translate its intentions into substantial, enduring investments. Africa’s economic needs go beyond mere market access; they include investments in infrastructure, renewable energy, education and health care. Harris would need a committed, coordinated strategy to build strong partnerships that genuinely address these needs, ensuring that U.S. involvement goes beyond symbolic gestures to foster transformative change.
Security collaboration remains a cornerstone of U.S.-Africa relations, particularly given the ongoing terrorist threats in regions such as the Sahel, Lake Chad Basin and the Horn of Africa. A Trump administration would likely intensify U.S. counterterrorism activities, emphasizing robust military engagement through the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM).
This approach could lead to a rapid bolstering of African governments’ abilities to confront extremist groups, potentially providing short-term security gains. However, a militarized approach risks sidelining the root causes of instability, such as poverty, corruption and lack of economic opportunities, particularly for young people. Without significant investments in socio-economic solutions and institutional capacity-building, security gains may remain superficial and unsustainable, potentially increasing the dependency on external forces for long-term stability.
In contrast, Harris might prioritize a capacity-building approach that could strengthen African institutions to lead their own security efforts. A Harris administration is likely to invest in governance reforms, local law enforcement and support for the African Union and regional organizations to coordinate security strategies.
By emphasizing institution-building and regional partnerships, Harris could pave the way for a more resilient and autonomous African security framework that reduces dependency on U.S. support. However, her administration would also need to address the complexities of counterterrorism strategies, particularly in the face of increasingly sophisticated threats from groups such as Boko Haram, al-Shabab and Daesh-affiliated organizations.
If Harris aims to help Africa address security challenges independently, she must commit to long-term, multilayered strategies that go beyond conventional military assistance. Working with African security agencies to strengthen accountability, democratic oversight and operational capabilities would foster a sustainable approach to counterterrorism.
Harris could also advocate for joint programs targeting the economic and social dimensions of extremism, addressing issues like youth unemployment and disenfranchisement, which often serve as recruitment grounds for extremist groups. Such a strategy would ensure that U.S. support does not simply respond to security crises but builds foundations for long-term stability.
The U.S.-China rivalry cast a large shadow over U.S.-Africa relations. As China has become Africa’s largest trading partner, its influence spans crucial sectors, such as infrastructure, telecommunications and natural resources. A Trump presidency would likely heighten the U.S.-China rivalry, forcing African nations into difficult diplomatic waters.
Trump's tendency to impose tariffs on Chinese goods and restrict Chinese technology could compel African countries to choose between strategic allies, potentially leading to greater polarization on the continent. African nations, which rely heavily on Chinese loans and infrastructure investments, may find it challenging to navigate this tension without alienating one of the world’s leading economies.
Harris, on the other hand, may adopt a more cooperative and multilateral approach, supporting Africa’s agency in determining its own course. The Harris administration might avoid pushing African nations into a binary choice between the U.S. and China, allowing African leaders to retain diplomatic flexibility. Harris’s approach could potentially open doors for Africa to engage with both superpowers under fair terms, maximizing benefits from each without compromising sovereignty.
By respecting Africa’s strategic autonomy, the Harris administration could promote a more balanced and inclusive diplomatic strategy, supporting Africa’s ambitions without pressuring nations into loyalty conflicts that hamper their development.
However, Harris’ strategy requires a robust and genuine commitment to long-term partnerships. To win the trust of African nations wary of being used as pawns in a larger geopolitical struggle, the U.S. would need to actively support Africa’s developmental goals such as industrialization, sustainable resource management and improved infrastructure. Encouraging partnerships based on transparency, capacity-building and respect for African agencies would allow the U.S. to foster deeper ties rooted in mutual respect and shared interests.
For Africa, choosing an independent path in the U.S.-China rivalry would reinforce its strategic autonomy, asserting that African countries will not be sidelined or coerced as global powers pursue their own agendas on the continent.
The changing tides in global power dynamics offer African leaders a chance to take the reins and define the continent’s path forward with greater autonomy and vision. By rallying together through the African Union (AU) and regional organizations, African nations can set their own terms for foreign partnerships, ensuring that they align with Africa’s long-term needs rather than external interests. A united African front would be key to securing fair-trade terms, attracting investment that builds local industries and setting transparent conditions for economic cooperation.
As Africa grapples with mounting developmental challenges and geopolitical pressures, the continent’s leaders have a rare opportunity to leverage its demographic dividends, resource wealth and growing diplomatic influence. This U.S. election is less about choosing sides and more about crafting an agenda that prioritizes Africa’s future.
African nations can proactively assert their demands in partnerships with the U.S. administration, seeking collaborations that support sustainable growth, resilient governance and economic diversification that benefits all citizens.
To solidify Africa’s standing in a multipolar world, leaders must prioritize clear-eyed diplomacy, invest in regional cohesion and remain committed to self-determination. By setting clear priorities and leading with a united stance, Africa can engage global powers not as a battleground, but as a valued, influential partner.
In summary, as the U.S. faces a pivotal election, Africa stands poised to shape its future on its own terms. The continent has the capacity and collective strength to influence global affairs, and by seizing this moment, African leaders can secure a lasting place for Africa as a respected, self-reliant partner in the world’s most pressing dialogue. The future awaits and Africa’s path is unique.
