A news article published in Hebrew on the Israeli news website Walla on Jan. 6, 2025, dropped like a bomb on the agenda – because the title of this news is "Fundamental change of situation in the Middle East: Nagel Committee recommends preparing for war with Turkey." In the content of the news report, it was explained what recommendations were made in this regard in the Nagel report, which was stated to be confidential. On the same day, when the Jerusalem Post published the same news in English, the impact of the news went beyond Israel to Türkiye, and naturally aroused great interest.
Before moving on to the content of the Nagel report and why it may have been leaked, I would like to briefly mention the committee and the purpose of its establishment.
The Nagel Committee, whose full name is “The Committee for Evaluating the Security Budget and Force Building Requests Proposals from the Public,” headed by former national security adviser professor Jacob Nagel, was established in August 2023, even before the Oct. 7 attack and the subsequent attacks on Gaza, on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's instructions to assess and present to the government proposals and recommendations on force building needs and the security budget for the next 10 years.
As part of its mandate, the committee wrote to all relevant institutions at the end of August 2023, requesting their views on the share that should be allocated to the security budget in order to build the strength required by the Israeli army in view of the threats and opportunities that will arise in the next decade, the economic importance of increasing the share of the security budget in the general budget and the possible sources for its financing, and suggestions on other issues related to the work of the committee.
In fact, the committee was expected to submit its report to the government before the 2025 budget, which was adopted by the Knesset on Nov. 1. However, due to the ongoing state of war and the resulting inter-institutional communication problems, it is estimated that the report was delayed and submitted to the government only in the first days of 2025.
According to the media coverage of the Nagel Committee's report, the government was recommended to add 15 billion Israeli shekels ($4.1 billion) annually to the defense budget over the next five years. It was even stated in the news reports that the reason for this was the damage to Israel's interests due to the regime change in Syria and Türkiye's increasing influence in Syria.
According to the same news, this increase in the defense budget is recommended to be used to purchase new fighter and tanker aircraft to increase Israel's long-range strike capacity, to strengthen its air systems such as the Iron Dome, the David Saber and the Arrow system and to increase border security, especially in the Jordan Valley.
However, in the 2025 budget presented by the government and adopted by its parliament, the share allocated to defense was already significantly increased compared to the previous year, even before the Nagel Committee's report was presented. The general budget of 587 billion Israeli shekels in 2024 was increased by 20 billion Israeli shekels to 607 billion Israeli shekels in 2025. What is more remarkable is that the defense budget, which was 67 billion Israeli shekels in 2024, was increased to 117 billion Israeli shekels in 2025.
Therefore, the defense budget for 2025 was increased by 50 billion Israeli shekels compared to the previous year, despite the ongoing state of war and the resulting stagnation and contraction in the economy. However, credit rating agencies downgraded Israel's credit rating twice in 2024 and warned the Israeli government that the downgrading trend would continue if the state of war continued.
Let us now turn to our speculations as to why this report, which is said to be top secret and recommends the reorganization of the IDF over the next 10 years, may have been leaked to the media.
Although it is not known exactly when the Nagel Committee's report was completed, the fact that the regime change in Syria took place only a short time ago and that the developments in Syria have been reflected in the report due to the ongoing mobility in Syria, indicates that it was fairly recently authored. Accordingly, the projection that Türkiye's presence in Syria poses a threat to Israel's interests is not very realistic.
Therefore, it is understood that the information about the content of the report in the Israeli press is disinformation and a perception operation of the government rather than a concrete reality. This is because, on the one hand, the government led by Netanyahu is preventing a cease-fire agreement in Gaza and ensuring the continuation of the war, and on the other hand, it is trying to regionalize the war by launching attacks on Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iran. Under these circumstances, economic indicators are deteriorating and the government's access to external funding is becoming more costly due to successive downgrades.
Moreover, despite the fact that a year and a half has passed, the forces of Iran's proxies in the region have been significantly reduced. Yet, the hostages in Gaza have still not been rescued and Hamas has not been completely eliminated. In other words, the victory promised by the Netanyahu government has not been achieved.
Similarly, due to the inability to end the war, people living in the northern areas have still not been able to return to their homes and normal lives, despite Netanyahu's promises. Many businesses in the north and around Gaza remain closed for security reasons.
Despite the military aid provided by the United States, the cost of the war was already very high and with the increase in the number of fronts fought, the weapons and ammunition used were depleted very quickly. Since most of the ammunition used was of foreign origin, it became impossible to meet the defense costs with the current budget figures.
It was, therefore, necessary to present a different and more convincing justification than the existing conditions in order to make the public accept the 50 billion Israel shekels increase in the defense budget, to prolong the war and to repair Israel's damaged image in the international community. The only factor that would consolidate the Israeli public, put Israel in a victim's position and thus increase its external support, was the creation of an enemy capable of destroying Israel.
Türkiye's policies toward Israel after Oct. 7 gave the government an important trump card in this regard. Türkiye has been making great efforts to stop Israel's attacks on Gaza and to ensure that Israel is put on trial for the genocide crimes it has committed. In this context, on the one hand, Türkiye cut off trade with Israel, and on the other hand, it was trying to create an international ground for Israel to be tried and sanctioned.
Türkiye already did not recognize Hamas as a terrorist organization and for this reason, was often criticized by the Israeli administration and complained to its allies. As if this was not enough, Türkiye has now entered into close cooperation with the forces that have taken over the administration of Syria, thus bringing the PKK/YPG terrorist organization, a regional ally of Israel, to the point of disappearing.
As such, Türkiye became a convenient excuse to cover up the failures of the Netanyahu government and to prolong the war by allocating more defense budget. The report prepared by the Nagel Committee was timed to coincide with this, and this supposedly confidential report was leaked to the media in order to gain public acceptance of the budget, which had already been approved by the votes of the coalition parties on Nov. 1.
It should not be forgotten that the leaking of this report has some foreign policy objectives as well as domestic political objectives as mentioned above. This is because Trump will soon assume the U.S. presidency and it is not yet clear whether he will withdraw U.S. troops from Syria, whether the support provided to the PKK/YPG will continue and what kind of a relationship will be established with Türkiye.
In such an environment and while Trump has recently given warm messages to Türkiye and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the news that Israel is threatened by Türkiye and that the two countries may go to war due to the developments in Syria are interpreted as moves to ensure that Trump stays on Israel's side and takes a position against Türkiye.
The Israeli media helped Netanyahu by fuelling this news. On the one hand, the failure on the ground was covered up and on the other hand, the taxes of the Israeli people were spent on endless wars to make it possible for Netanyahu to remain in office.
In conclusion, it is considered that the Nagel Committee's “confidential” classified report was deliberately leaked to the media by the Israeli government. By fuelling this news, the Israeli media contributed to the achievement of Netanyahu's goals. In this way, Netanyahu, on the one hand, covered up his failure in the field and, on the other hand, legitimized the transfer of people's taxes to endless wars in order to stay in his seat.
In addition, while consolidating its people by pumping the perception of a threat despite the protests taking place throughout the country, it also gives Trump the message that Türkiye will attack Israel, forcing him to make a choice between NATO member Türkiye and Israel, and tries to shape its possible regional policy in favor of Israel.
