Burkina Faso, like the rest of West African countries lately, is becoming a geopolitical dilemma for Paris. As ex-President Thomas Sankara put it, 'We must choose either champagne for a few or safe drinking water for all'
In September 2021, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed concern about the return of military coups in Africa and questioned the international community's lack of unity in the face of military interventions. Eight months after taking power by force, Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba in Burkina Faso was ousted on the night of Oct. 1. He was introduced to the population as the henchman of France in light of the ongoing anti-French sentiment narrative in the region, a narrative that has sustained the dialectal equation of the dynamic of the balance of power in the African Sahel and Africa in general in the super and regional powers’ big game.
New regional and sub-regional geopolitical parameters are shaping Africa’s politics and geopolitics landscape. France and Russia are already engaged in a battle for the sphere of influence in several Western and Central African countries, which Paris still considers its backyard.
Capt. Ibrahim Traore, 34, was Burkina Faso’s corps commander of the Kaya artillery regiment in the north. He is now the new strongman of the country. A figure that mirrors the regional politics and geopolitics of another flamboyant captain, Thomas Sankara, who shook Burkina Faso’s sub-regional national security imperatives 37 years ago, challenging Paris’ role and control. This occurred at a time when Chad was facing a bloody civil war stemming from ethnic tensions, in which Paris and Moscow pushed Tripoli and N'Djamena in a costly, raging proxy war imposed by the first Cold War-era circumstances.
The return to normal constitutional order will be even before this date if the situation allows it. Hence, our wish is that it can be done before the year 2024. Capt. Brahim Traore made it clear that he will be reaching out to other partners who are ready to help the country’s war on terror. Nevertheless, he did not mention Paris as a partner in this delicate task since France has seen severe setbacks in Mali. There are other partners who would join Burkina Faso and other neighboring countries in the African Sahel.
Meanwhile, demonstrators in Burkina Faso’s large cities did take to the streets following the coup and chanted anti-French slogans, waving Russian flags. An issue that makes the French leaders very concerned, the rise of anti-French sentiment in the region, is not happening only in Burkina Faso but also in Mali, Niger and even in Central Africa in addition to Maghreb countries, all of which were under French colonial rule at one time or another. A week ago, the French authorities did mention the possibility of withdrawing their military forces from Gambia, another military operation setback for French President Emmanuel Macron.
Is it over?
Is this the end of the French hegemony in the African Sahel?
The French military and diplomatic decline in the region are enhancing the analysts’ arguments regarding a new balance of power that is reshuffling the cards in the region. Countries like China, Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and even Israel are already positioning themselves against the French influence and hegemony in Africa in a move aiming to downsize the European power’s capabilities in the region.
Russia’s ties to Burkina Faso date back to the times of the late Capt. Thomas Sankara, who, before being assassinated, established excellent and trustworthy relations with Moscow in a partnership that was based totally based on the then-young military leader’s foreign policy ideological determinants. At the same time, the latter used the opportunity to settle in the region, providing military equipment and materials, and as a result, nowadays Russia is just replacing and further supporting its pawns that were moved three decades ago, knowing that the winds of the region’s geopolitical context are blowing in Moscow’s direction.
Yet, the new head of the Patriotic Movement for Safeguarding and Restoration looks dynamic and buoyant like the late Sankara. Could Capt. Ibrahim Traore rise from Sankara’s ashes like a Burkinabe phoenix? Sankara did change the colonial name of his country from Haute Volta to Burkina Faso and sided with the late Libyan ruler Moammar Gadhafi in his Pan-Africanism and anti-French colonialism rhetoric. Alas, the young captain, who wanted to change his country and Africa quickly sided with Gadhafi. He had aimed to be Africa’s king, but his throne was buried and his ideals evaporated.
Traore sounds like an eloquent leader who speaks about the economic and social development of his country and the complete withdrawal of French military forces from his country and beyond, like Sankara. He is more worried about the fate and immediate needs of his population and ending the suffering of the people. Once security returns, his fight for development will be high on the agenda.
Moscow’s man
The Russians were accused of being behind the Oct. 1 coup. Indicating the transformation of a normally unlikely actor into a usual suspect, Russia has been strengthening its ties with the new military leaders of Mali, Central Africa and Burkina Faso, which all have been subject to coups recently. Military leaders of those African countries also have close ties to the controversial para-military groups such as Russia-operated Wagner mercenaries that are active and operating in Libya and Mali in the aftermath of the withdrawal of the French military.
The military and security vacuum was filled by Wagner mercenaries in those countries. Nonetheless, Traore is trying to put an end to the ongoing allegations in Western, and in particular, French media that he is a pawn of Russian President Vladimir Putin. "I know that France cannot interfere directly in our affairs," he said, adding that his country currently has other partners too, not only Russia.
From a broader perspective, it seems that the different factions of Burkina Faso's military are still increasingly involved in the trench war between tribal chiefs, putting the blame on France for not being a credible and serious partner to the country’s leaders in their war on terror, thereby causing more chaos and instability for the sub-regional countries, which are all waging war against extremists. This distracts from the state’s priority of regaining control over its own territory. However, the pretext of the war on terror is here to stay, and on the contrary, the extremists’ message is echoing well among the disparate entities in the entire region.
The political initiative, however, is making some progress in Mali and Chad, where the political elite, religious leaders and military leaders are considering the Algerian model for political reconciliation and civil concordance. On this issue, Algiers has been active, helping the African Sahel countries break free from violence through political dialogue.
To sum up, the role of Moscow in the latest coup is still difficult to define; on the other hand, what is certain is that the military in Burkina Faso is divided and is taking advantage of tribal and ideological differences, a fertile breeding ground for the rivalry between superpowers and regional powers. So, Burkina Faso, like the rest of West African countries lately, is becoming a geopolitical dilemma for Paris. As Sankara put it, "We must choose either champagne for a few or safe drinking water for all."