The ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, which initially was viewed as a regional conflict, is now making a significant impact on a global scale. This war has many different aspects than usual regional and conventional wars. The process has become even more complicated with the sanctions imposed by the West, which supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine against Russia. In this context, new geopolitical regions are emerging as areas of interest for Russia. The Arctic region is one of the overlooked areas in the Russia-Ukraine War. Although Russia does not pursue very impulsive political moves in this region, it is increasing its activities focused on areas of action within the scope of its territorial regions.

The aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine War has prompted Russia to reassess its policies in response to the sanctions. The Barents Sea is a case in point. During the Cold War, the U.K. was granted fishing rights in this sea, which was part of the USSR's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). This arrangement continued post-USSR, but Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the subsequent Western sanctions led to its termination, underscoring the war's far-reaching effects on Russia's policies. The Barents Sea, which is essential for the U.K. in terms of fishing, was a region that Russia quickly instrumentalized during the crisis, terminating the agreement in 2024. Indeed, it has had a significant economic challenge for British fishermen who harvested over 566,000 tons of fish in 2023. Thus, the nature of the conflict has progressively evolved from a bilateral conflict to a regional issue and eventually to a global one. In this context, the developments in the Arctic region should be considered. Although the focus is traditionally on Trans-Europe, the Arctic should be examined more closely.

Geopolitical importance

Geopolitics plays a crucial role in international relations, as geopolitical power and geography determine global influence. Recently, the Arctic, also known as the North Pole, has gained increasing importance and become a focal point in the international power struggle. Throughout history, the region has been highly valued for finding alternative trade routes. This interest was prompted by the growing influence of the Ottoman Empire in the Mediterranean, compelling Europeans to seek alternative routes to Asia. Also, the aforementioned passages played a significant role in the discovery of the American continent and the search for alternative trade routes. However, the challenging climate posed the most significant obstacle. It can be stated that navigating the Arctic waters for the Asian trade route was much more difficult than the Europeans had anticipated.

Furthermore, the Arctic region holds great geopolitical and historical significance for Russia. With the longest Arctic coastline, the largest reserves of oil and natural gas, and 53% of the total Arctic coast, Russia strategically utilizes this advantage, as demonstrated by the Barents agreement. Moreover, Russia's military presence in the Arctic predates that of other Arctic states, with historical expeditions such as Peter the Great's "Great Northern Expeditions" reinforcing Russia's deep historical ties to the region. During the Soviet period, the Arctic served as a key arena for the Cold War rivalry between the U.S. and the USSR. This dynamic shifted with former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev's introduction of the term "Arctic Exceptionalism" and his pursuit of a peaceful and cooperative approach to the region.

Following the end of the Cold War, Russia directed its attention to domestic affairs and, much like in other areas, temporarily overlooked the Arctic region. The shift in the Russian foreign policy under President Vladimir Putin also extended to the Arctic. Given its status as a major power, Russia's Arctic strategy is primarily shaped by strategic considerations. The region's role as a critical transit area and a source of energy resources is the crucial factor driving Russia's Arctic policy.

On the other hand, after the Cold War, it's crucial to understand that the Arctic's emerging geopolitical importance is a challenge that demands our attention. From the U.S. perspective, the Arctic's exceptional potential demands the U.S. to step forward and assume a pivotal role in the region. The development of Arctic diplomacy is at a crucial juncture for the U.S., offering a promising path to maintain our energy independence and reduce our increasing mineral dependency on countries like China. In this context, Russia's regional policies are important to the U.S., further enhancing the region's strategic significance, especially in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War process.

Russian power

The West continues to extend its sanctions against Russia. Russia is also continuing to seek alternatives to these sanctions. In this respect, every area and every actor is becoming a vital instrumentalization element, and a new geopolitical war is also at stake. The policies pursued by Russia within the Arctic have become increasingly important, especially in recent years. In 2014, there was a crisis between Russia and Norway regarding intelligence activities in the Barents Sea. In 2015, the intelligence ship "FS Marjata," operating in international waters outside the Kola Peninsula in the Barents Sea, closely monitored the activities of Russia’s Northern Fleet, creating a period of tension with Norway. At the same time, the threat of sending troops to the region brought the crises to the most tense level in the post-Cold War period.

More than half of the Arctic is Russian territory, and Russia aims to establish complete control of the region. In this context, Western security officials interpreted the Russian and Chinese power projection in the Arctic in terms of NATO's threat perception. This issue was the first regional exercise for Russia and China, but it was also a power projection in drawing the region's borders in military and geopolitical terms. It should also not be forgotten that the USSR launched the world's first nuclear-powered icebreaker, Soviet leader Vladimir Lenin, on Dec. 5, 1957. In 2022, Russia deployed its nuclear icebreaker "Yakutiya" to the region. In light of Western sanctions and the Houthi drone attacks in the Red Sea, Russia is enhancing its capability to enforce borders and control in the Arctic region. Russia is collaborating with China to establish the Polar Silk Road route as part of these developments. This route offers a safer and shorter passage between Russian and Chinese ports, utilizing the Northeast Passage, which is expected to remain open for most of the year. This strategic move has significant geopolitical implications, particularly regarding energy transportation to China and providing an alternative route to areas affected by the Ukrainian war.

Given these developments by Russia and the prolonged conflict in Ukraine, it appears that the Arctic may become a new hotspot of intense rivalry between Russia and the West in the near future.