Tensions between Ukraine and Russia result from a complex process that has been ongoing for many years following the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 2014, Russia's annexation of Crimea and its support for separatist movements in Eastern Ukraine turned these tensions into an open conflict and created a sharp breaking point in relations between the two countries. In this context, Ukraine's military resistance to Russia has been shaped as part of the country's effort to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Since the first day of the war, Ukraine has organized attacks against various strategic targets to weaken Russia's military logistics and limit Russia's war capacity. One of the most notable of these attacks was Ukraine's recent attack on the Kursk region of Russia.

Kursk is located close to the Ukrainian border and plays a vital role in Russia's military logistics chain. This strategic location has made Kursk a target of Ukraine's military operations, and with such attacks, Ukraine has aimed to reduce Russia's effectiveness on the battlefield and turn the course of the war in its favor. This operation, the first large-scale attack on Russian territory since World War II, was an important move by Ukraine to change the course of the war and shake Russia's military strategies. The attack attracts attention not only as a military success but also as an action that can potentially change the balance of power in international relations.

The extent of the Russian Army's military activity in the southeast of Ukraine, coupled with the vulnerability of its own borders, leads to the belief that Russia has underestimated Ukraine on the battlefield. In particular, the recently approved U.S. aid package of approximately $60 billion to Ukraine and Kyiv's self-confidence, which was fuelled by the purchase of F-16 fighter jets, were among the factors that enabled it to attack the Russian border regions and make this operation effective. In fact, the support of Western actors and organizations since the beginning of the war has given Ukraine serious social, political and military motivation against Russia.

On the other hand, the Western aid to Ukraine had negative consequences for Russia in terms of the status quo of the government and society in international relations. Although it may seem beneficial to strengthen the legitimacy of the Russian administration and political interests, the exclusion that emerged with the Russia-West rivalry in the post-Cold War era has come at a significant cost to Russia.

New front

It seems that the main reason behind the controversial Kursk attack is the effort to have a say against Russia in future peace negotiations to take back the occupied territories rather than weakening the military capacity of the enemy or occupying Russian areas.

When analyzed in its historical context, Ukraine's attack on Kursk also recalls the echoes of the Battle of Kursk in World War II. The Battle of Kursk, fought by Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union in 1943, is remembered as the largest tank battle in history. The Battle of Kursk was a strategic turning point for the Soviet Union.

Today, by attacking this symbolic territory, Ukraine has opened a new front against Russia and reminded it of an old trauma. This attack can be seen as part of Ukraine's effort to gain a strategic advantage by distracting Russia's attention from the Donetsk and southern fronts. Given the fierce fighting in Donetsk, the Kursk offensive is a tactical maneuver by Ukraine to reduce tensions on the front line. However, it is possible to predict that history will repeat itself if Kyiv focuses on geographical expansion rather than the morale boost Kursk will provide.

Risks, gains

Kyiv appears to bear two major strategic risks: Firstly, Ukraine’s invasion of Russian territory could overstretch its forces. This could weaken Ukraine's defense lines, leaving it vulnerable in the long term. Secondly, Ukrainian forces occupying Kursk could face the prospect of significant losses and even a humiliating retreat if Russia concentrates its military power there. These strategic mistakes could become even more pronounced in a scenario where Russia, after closing Ukraine's access to the Black Sea, would focus all its attention and military capacity on Kursk. Ukraine's offensive against Russia carries strategic risks beyond tactical successes, which could give Russia an advantage in its counterattacks.

This attack stands out as a morale-boosting move for Ukraine. Russia's constant missile attacks on Ukraine and destruction of its infrastructure have had a profound impact on the Ukrainian people. This critical attack on Kursk shows that Ukraine is now resilient not only in military terms but also in the field of psychological warfare. This strategic orientation toward domestic public opinion emphasizes that Ukraine has the strength to continue the conflict and is determined to keep public morale high. It can also be seen as an image of resistance to the hardships of the conflict.

The global dimension of the Kursk offensive is also important, including Ukraine's effort to send a message to the U.S. and its allies in Europe that the war remains winnable and that the guidance provided is yielding results. This strategic attempt to motivate Ukraine's international supporters also aims to ensure continued Western support for Ukraine. It also can open a much wider front against Russia worldwide and encourage the participation of foreign dissidents.

Beyond attacking Kursk, holding on to it would be a major achievement for Ukraine. Internally, it could lead to a negative perception of Russia in the international media in the eyes of rising southern actors, especially Russia's former eastern friends after 2022. In this context, the Kursk attack can be seen as part of a complex and multidimensional strategy pursued by Ukraine both militarily and diplomatically.

Test of hybrid warfare

Hybrid warfare is a complex form that blends traditional warfare techniques with asymmetric, political, economic and cyber operations and is increasingly prominent in state-of-the-art warfare environments. This concept is often referred to as the "Gerasimov Doctrine" in the 2013 article "The Value of Science in Foresight" by Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff. In this article, Gerasimov emphasized that the line between war and peace is becoming increasingly blurred and the position of non-military means in achieving political and war objectives is increasing. Accordingly, the concept of hybrid warfare describes a form of conflict that goes beyond traditional conflict strategies and combines multiple instruments, including political, financial and information operations.

Ukraine's attack on Kursk and the preceding attack on the Russian mercenary group Wagner in Mali partly illustrate how the hybrid warfare approach is being applied today from the Ukrainian perspective. While the Kursk offensive can be seen as a Ukrainian retaliation aimed at disrupting and distracting Russia's war logistics, it is also an attempt that reflects Ukraine's strategy of emphasizing a weakness in Russia’s internal security.

Therefore, by the hybrid warfare doctrine put forward by Gerasimov, Ukraine is trying to weaken the enemy's morale and achieve strategic gains by using psychological warfare factors as well as military forces.

Similarly, the attack on Russian mercenaries in Mali also revealed the international dimension of hybrid warfare. While Russian PMCs (Private Military Companies) are trying to increase Russia's influence in Africa, Ukraine's operation against these elements is seen as a strategic move to damage Russia's global activities. Such operations show that hybrid warfare is no longer confined to the borders of a country but can also be waged in the international system beyond traditional war narratives and that this form of conflict has a multilayered structure.

Finally, Ukraine's approach to hybrid conflict can be considered as a complex strategic endeavor aimed not only at achieving military successes but also at undermining Russia's national security, the government's global and national popularity, and the impact of its endeavor within the relations within the bilateral and multipolar system building.

The attempted attack on Kursk certainly had an impact on Russia's seizure of eastern Ukraine and Crimea. It created a perception that Russia had been hit by its own weapon. This shows how effective Ukraine's hybrid war strategy is. We can say that Ukraine has aimed to achieve psychological and strategic superiority not only through military means but also by shaking Russia's perception of security.