Russia has intensified its offensive in eastern Ukraine in recent months, aiming to seize as much territory as possible before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20. Moscow claims its forces have captured over 190 Ukrainian settlements since the beginning of 2024, as in November, Ukraine experienced its most significant territorial loss as 1,202 Square kilometers (464 Square miles) since September 2022.
Russia has steadily expanded its control over the last year and now holds the majority of territory in the four regions it annexed in 2022: Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk. In February 2024, Russia captured strategic Avdiivka, which was seen as a "gateway" to the nearby provincial capital of Donetsk; now, Moscow’s troops are heading towards the vital Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk.
These gains come at a cost, as Russia has been facing significant losses in manpower. However, when compared to Ukraine, the country still benefits from a considerably larger reserve of manpower, resources and overall strategic potential, which creates a pronounced asymmetry in the conflict. Moreover, the Russian army has reportedly been enjoying the reinforcement by an additional 10,000 North Korean soldiers. Besides, with the fall of the Assad regime, Russia is now reallocating its military resources from Syria to focus entirely on Ukraine, utilizing its full arsenal for this conflict.
Ukraine's strategic decision to open a new front in the Russian territory, the Kursk region, intended to halt Russia's progress in the Donbas region, seems to have achieved limited success. Ukraine captured around 1,300 square kilometers of Russian territory in August. Nonetheless, Kyiv has since lost almost half of the initially seized area.
Recent advancements in eastern Ukraine hint at a potentially critical phase of the war, especially in the Donbas region, within the next month or two. At the same time, the conflict has intensified not only on the frontlines in Eastern Ukraine but also across various other fronts of the war.
The Ukraine-Russia war front had already spread beyond Eastern Ukraine some time ago, but recent escalations are deeply alarming. Russia used a hypersonic missile for the first time, Oreshnik, during an attack on Dnipro, Ukraine, in November 2024. The Kremlin justified this as retaliation for Kyiv’s use of high-precision Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) in the Russian territory. Also, on the 13th of last month, Russia launched a large-scale aerial assault on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure, particularly near the western border. In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the attack, calling it part of Russian President Putin's so-called "peace plan" aimed at terrorizing millions.
On Dec. 17, 2024, the head of the Chemical, Biological and Nuclear Defense Troops, Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov and his assistant were assassinated in central Moscow by Ukraine's SBU intelligence service, an event that has unnerved Russian elites. The attack has raised concerns about the safety of Moscow’s officials. Kirillov has been, so far, the most senior military officer killed by Ukraine. Ukraine claims to have eliminated up to 19 Russian generals.
Furthermore, apart from both sides exchanging drone attacks on an almost regular basis, Ukraine carried out drone strikes deep within Russian territory last month, targeting Kazan in the Tatarstan region, more than 1,000 kilometers from the front lines. These assaults aim to instill fear among Russian officials and demonstrate Ukraine's ability to penetrate even the most secure areas of Russia.
The most important reason why Kyiv is losing ground is the lack of manpower. Although the legal age for enlistment was reduced from 27 to 25 in April last year in Ukraine, which temporarily accelerated recruitment, Ukraine's population of 38 million – less than one-third of Russia's 144 million – places the country at a clear numerical disadvantage in terms of available manpower for sustaining military operations.
The demographic gap is further evident in the Ukrainian frontline, where the average soldier is now over 40 years old. Desertion is also a major issue, with more than 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers charged under desertion laws since the beginning of Russia's invasion, according to Ukraine’s General Prosecutor.
Morale in Ukraine has declined as well. A Gallup survey highlighted a shift in public sentiment: while 73% supported continuing the war in 2022, the majority, 52%, favored an immediate end to the conflict through negotiations in a recent poll.
Furthermore, in the spring of 2024, the Ukrainian army experienced a significant ammunition shortage, primarily due to delays in receiving military aid from the U.S., which directly affected its performance on the battlefield. During this period, Russia fired three times more shells daily. Although Ukraine has since narrowed the gap, it still fires only half as many shells as Russia, according to Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army.
Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections has again boosted hopes of ending the Russian-Ukrainian war since both nations have been already weary and paid high prices in terms of human and financial resources. In his annual press conference on Dec. 19, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated his willingness to meet with Ukraine based on the agreements from the 2022 Istanbul negotiations, adding, "We need a long-term and lasting peace with guarantees for Russia and its citizens. How these guarantees can be provided is a difficult issue, but we are seeking it." However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed his Russian counterpart’s claims, describing them as ultimatums rather than agreements. Zelenskyy has admitted recently Ukraine lacks the military capability to retake all the territories occupied by Russia since 2014, urging the West to take stronger action to confront Moscow.
In conclusion, the Russia-Ukraine war has escalated with no resolution in sight as days left to the inauguration of Trump. While Putin signals readiness for peace talks on his own terms, Ukraine dismisses these as ultimatums, facing military and strategic challenges at the same time. Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections has once again raised hopes for resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict; however, the likelihood of achieving a lasting peace remains uncertain.
