Ukraine-Russia war: Potential black hole for Europe?
A general view of the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Aug. 12, 2024. (Reuters Photo)

While the focus remains on Palestine-Israel, Western backing of Ukraine pushes Russia toward alliances, risking a global catastrophe



Recently, particular issues have come to the fore under the titles of a unipolar world, a multipolar world and inter-polar trade competition. Especially after the United Nations lost its vital role, the realm of international relations continues to be marked by an absence of binding legal guarantees between states.

Humanity has gone back to the period before the age of empire. The law of the jungle almost prevails now.

In the period of the Romans, Rome dominated the world, and Roman Law was valid in supranational and international relations. During the rise of Islam, there was a framework for Muslim and Muslim-Christian relations. In the era of the empire, there were also valid codes of conduct between empires.

As humanity transitioned into the modern and contemporary eras, a legal order and framework for human rights emerged under the leadership of the West. From its inception to its full implementation, despite facing numerous multifaceted challenges, a global order, or at least the functioning of the international system, emerged. During the Cold War, this order was mainly dominated by formal and supranational institutions that shaped international relations.

In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it became clear that the U.S. had lost its ability to impose an order. At the same time, the U.S. has neutered justice in international relations and reinstated the law of the jungle on earth.

Empowered by West

Meanwhile, as the debate continues over whether the regional conflict in the Middle East could escalate to engulf all of humanity, the war between Ukraine and Russia is intensifying. European states and NATO allies are steadily increasing their support for Ukraine while Russia's anger grows in response.

Ukraine's resilience has become evident, as its strength is directly proportional to the heavy weaponry provided by Western nations such as the U.S., France, Germany, the United Kingdom and other NATO members. The more advanced military aid these countries deliver, the more formidable Ukraine becomes in its defense. The more this capability increases, the further the war between Ukraine and Russia will deepen. If the war sparks in a NATO country territory outside Ukraine, there is a possibility of a confrontation between Russia and NATO.

While the Western Front is increasing its power against Russia as NATO countries and the Western Union, Russia continues to seek alliances with Iran, China, North Korea and other countries. The Ukraine-Russia War, which does not look like an easy equation when viewed from the outside, is becoming increasingly hazardous enough to involve the entirety of humankind.

Escalation toward catastrophe

When law, order and justice cease to exist globally, it only takes a spark to ignite a Third World War. Although global attention is fixed on the atrocities in Gaza, we are living in a time when the rule of law has been replaced by the law of the jungle. In such a volatile environment, a spark in Russia could promptly escalate into a full-scale conflict involving all European countries, including the U.S., against Russia. The intensifying war in Ukraine, which shows no signs of delivering a decisive defeat to Russia, risks doing nothing but plunging humanity into an unparalleled catastrophe.

I believe Türkiye should once again take a proactive role in mediating the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, just as it did in the early stages of the war. Türkiye's strategic position and diplomatic leverage could prove vital in de-escalating tensions and facilitating negotiations, helping to prevent further destruction and potentially averting a broader conflict.