In February 2022 when the Russia-Ukraine war started, Poland's Ukraine policy was in tandem with the West's strategies. From the beginning of the process, Poland has helped Ukraine against Russia and has continued to provide military aid, especially in border security. Poland is regarded as an excellent border support for Ukraine as a member of the EU, acting within the scope of the NATO alliance. However, relations between the two countries have changed rapidly since the summer of 2023. Poland has created a critical crack in the West's joint action against Russia, and perhaps the crucial call for unity in this regard came from Pope Francis. While the pope warned that the world was on the verge of a nuclear war, like the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, Europe especially made a call for unity. Forming a theological basis for the unity of the West as a powerful entity against Russia has been crucial in its progress. Given this, a question emerges: Why does Poland still need to change its approach toward Ukraine? The recent strained relations between Poland and Ukraine may seem driven primarily by military, security and political concerns, but it's crucial to emphasize that economic security is also of paramount importance.
Welcome to the crisis
The state of Ukrainian-Polish relations in June was on a supportive basis. Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau, emphasizing Ukraine's membership in the European Union, stated that achieving success in the country's reconstruction was in the interest of the entire international community. Polish President Andrzej Duda called for Ukraine's NATO membership in the same period. He stated that Poland could send troops to Ukraine if the country were part of the NATO mission. Definitely, the statements during this period were not only specific to Poland. Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins also supported Ukraine's bid for accession to the EU. In September, relations between the two countries suddenly became tense, after the Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced that Poland would no longer provide arms aid to Ukraine. The foremost reason for this stance is that Poland plans to equip its armies with more modern weapons for its own security. With this, Poland strengthens its military power and seeks security against a possible Russian attack. This issue led to cutting off Poland’s military and equipment aid to Ukraine. This situation also reveals the change in Poland's security approach. On the other hand, recent developments related to the Wagner Group also make sense in this context. The Wagner para-military forces deployed to Belarus after Wagner's rebellion attempt in Russia on June 24 also became a worrying point for Poland.
Nevertheless, an issue that needs to be mentioned in the context of security is the missile incident that hit Poland in November 2022 and caused the death of two people. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the missile might belong to the Ukrainian air defense system. According to the expert report in 2023, it was revealed that the Ukrainian air defense system fired the missile. Therefore, these developments call into question Poland's relations with Ukraine.
Real reason for tension: Grain
The grain trade issue is the most critical problem between the two countries. The grain agreement in the Black Sea was terminated after Russia decided not to extend it. In this situation, Ukraine quickly turned to alternative areas and trade routes that were being diverted overland through Europe. But why is Poland so upset about that? The biggest reason for this is undoubtedly duty-free trade. EU member states that are bordering Ukraine claim that duty-free imports from Ukraine have disrupted their markets. The EU restrictions in May allowed some countries to ban domestic sales of Ukrainian grain but permit its transit for export. The EU restricted imports to protect local farmers who blamed imports for low prices.
In this context, the main problem is the countries' instinct to protect themselves against Ukrainian grain. This economic situation must be considered with security policies. Because the entry of Ukrainian grain into Central Europe creates a situation where prices decrease, and farmers suffer losses in the market, especially in countries such as Poland. Therefore, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary introduced bans after grain flows from Ukraine sparked protests from local farmers. Although Ukraine complained to the World Trade Organization (WTO) about the decision of Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, Warsaw announced that the ban would continue.
All these developments are a picture that reveals the impacts of the almost two-year Russia-Ukraine war on other states. The process progresses differently for the prolonged war and the countries in the region, especially those neighboring Ukraine. The Poland-Ukraine relationship is an example of this. In a realistic sense, the interests of military or political countries are at the forefront. In this regard, the policies of EU members toward Ukraine, particularly Poland, are thought-provoking. Therefore, Poland seems ready to close its doors to Ukraine for now. Due to the imminent national elections, the country's security has become a pressing concern that cannot be ignored. However, the clear answer will be seen in Poland's Ukraine policy after the election. In the end, Poland is not the only example experiencing tension in its relations with Ukraine. Therefore, these disagreements will continue in the short term. The critical issue is how the EU finds solutions between Ukraine and its members.
