This week German Chancellor Olaf Scholz traveled to Ankara where he was welcomed by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. It was Scholz’s first formal visit to Turkey since taking over from former Chancellor Angela Merkel. Scholz underlined the positive nature of relations by opting to visit so soon after being elected, which, under normal circumstances, would be nothing out of the ordinary as the countries are close allies, friends and partners in a myriad of ways. However, since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, the term "normal circumstances" no longer fits.
During a press conference and after their face-to-face meeting, which lasted an hour longer than originally planned, Ukraine most definitely topped the agenda as both leaders stressed the urgent need for a cease-fire in Ukraine and thus a complete end to the war. Scholz explicitly thanked Turkey for applying the Montreux Convention disallowing warships to pass through the Bosporus and Dardanelles and stressed the need to safeguard Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty when the war is over.
Yet the question on everyone’s mind is of course how to achieve this goal. On the one hand, Germany and the European Union favor sanctions against Russia, Turkey is refraining from following suit. While on the other, Ankara is supplying combat drones to Ukraine and thereby clearly expressing its conviction that Moscow is the aggressor and not the other way around.
We have to place the recent unfortunate events unfolding in Ukraine into the wider picture. With Turkey importing gas and agricultural products from Russia and the development of nuclear energy plants emerging as another vital area of cooperation, Scholz definitely appreciates Ankara’s unique position. While Erdoğan stressed that his country would continue its friendship with both Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Scholz thanked Ankara for openly speaking out against the war.
Such a double strategy, if this terminology is allowed, may prove successful in hopefully finding a quick way out of the war and in preventing innocent civilians from losing their lives in the face of the heinous Russian invasion.
Which way forward? No individual nation-state can achieve these goals by itself. Hence, would NATO step into the political ring? Scholz mentioned that the alliance is about to strengthen its eastern flank and as both countries are NATO members, there is a chance these two countries' viewpoints will become major and decisive factors in how the alliance moves forward, as sitting idle is no longer an option for NATO. At the same time, it cannot openly engage in military action vis-a-vis Russia since by definition it is a defensive alliance. With Germany now aware of Turkey's concerns, familiar with the nature of its ties with Russia and cognisant of the fact that it does not want to challenge other NATO members' preference of sanctions, perhaps a compromise can be found.
According to Scholz, the sanctions against Russia are already working. However, it remains to be seen who in Russia will really suffer from them, the poor or the rich. This brings us to a related topic: public opinion.
Here, Germany and Turkey are probably closer to each other than many observers think or expect. Although public opinion in both countries clearly denounces Russia’s aggression and wants to see an immediate end to the bloodshed, active military involvement from either side is not on the cards. What voters in both countries prefer instead is providing active humanitarian aid and both are already welcoming innocent people in need while also sending aid. Turkey has so far dispatched over 50 trucks with aid to Ukraine.
Between sanctions and combat drones, waiting for NATO to get its act together, factoring in public reaction to denouncing the war and refraining from active military involvement, Scholz and Erdoğan made one point clear: the aggression, the invasion, the war must stop. A cease-fire must be brokered without any further delay.
Given how close the nations are, topics other than Ukraine also made it to the agenda. Erdoğan announced that he is determined to increase the bilateral trade volume, which stood at $38 billion in 2020, to $50 billion. His comment reflects how closely linked the countries' economies are. Scholz agreed and said that "more is possible" in this context. As the EU promotes its ambitious Green Deal climate change initiatives, Scholz spoke about the potential of further cooperation in the energy sector.
Germany has embarked on a course to eliminate fossil fuel-based energy consumption within 25 years, which is, of course, a very ambitious plan. The interesting thing is that this strategy was thought of long before Russia invaded Ukraine; however, now, it needs to be implemented with more urgency.
What’s more, no bilateral leaders' meeting involving Germany and Turkey would be complete without addressing EU-Turkey relations; however, it has to be said that Scholz refrained from explicitly stating that EU membership will happen soon. He only spoke about the need for further high-level dialogue between both sides and hinted at a possible upgrading of the customs union without going into detail. Cooperation with regards to the migrant situation was of course added to the list of items but no clear commitment was made to full membership.
Everything depends on how the first visit of a newly elected German chancellor to Turkey is interpreted. Some would argue that it is just a courtesy visit in line with good bilateral relations. Others, however, would put much more emphasis on the subject matter of the discussions that took place during the trip. In any case, there is the opportunity to do quite a bit of "reading between the lines" and Scholz's visit to Ankara is no exception from this rule of journalism.
Putting aside the disappointment due to no mention of Turkey's eventual full EU membership, what was especially noteworthy were Scholz's comments about citizens of Turkish descent who have made Germany their homeland. The phrasing of his comments is more interesting than the fact that he mentioned it.
He described the first, second and third generation of residents of Turkish descent as a vital and active part of society. His use of the word "Bürgergesellschaft" (civil society) in this regard underlines two things.
First, Scholz as the newly elected chancellor promotes a civic society. Second, he no longer refers to the citizens with Turkish background as those in need of integration, instead, he declared that each and every citizen living in his country is part and parcel of society.
Those words must have been well-received by citizens of international backgrounds, particularly those with Turkish roots. Scholz also drew attention to the recently elected politicians with Turkish backgrounds and added that more people are stepping forward to participate in the government.
His comments did not come off as designed to please his host Erdoğan or play to the gallery back home. His words seemed to come naturally and reflected his government's principal attitude toward a multicultural society. Without mentioning the word, his visit was a clear signal that Scholz is not the one to go after "populism."
In conclusion: bilateral relations are very good. Yet, just as is the case with increasing trade volumes, there is always room for improvement – or as the German saying goes, "da ist noch Luft nach oben."
