In late Nov. 2024, opposition groups in Syria launched a coordinated military campaign in Aleppo, Hama and Homs. By the first week of December, their actions culminated in a historic outcome: the liberation of Damascus and the collapse of Bashar Assad's regime, which had ruled Syria since 2000 and the end of Baathist rule that had dominated the country since 1963.
This tectonic shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics has redirected the region's focus from the ongoing Gaza-centered conflict, which has nearly escalated into an all-out war between Israel and Iran over the past 18 months, to Syria. In response to the opposition's successes, Russia and Iran began retreating from Syria, signaling a decline in external powers' influence over the country's internal affairs. Notably, Bashar Assad and his family sought refuge in Moscow, marking the end of an era in Syria.
The quick sequence of events that occurred in about a week and a half was not limited to Syria; it rippled across the Middle East. These advances have had an influence on every country in the area, both directly and indirectly. In this perspective, the reactions of the Gulf governments, which took various views during the Syrian civil war, are especially important. Their attitude will have a significant impact on the course of post-Assad Syria and the country's future political and geopolitical affiliation.
Before the Assad regime's collapse, opposition forces secured Idlib and Aleppo, then advanced into Hama, Homs and finally Damascus. During this period, Gulf states like the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain engaged diplomatically with Syrian officials, affirming support for Syria's territorial integrity. In contrast, Qatar and Kuwait kept refraining from engaging with the regime in its final days.
This discrepancy reflects the Gulf's longtime views toward Syria. While their reactions to the military operations and Assad's removal differed, all Gulf governments recognized Syria's political and social upheaval as significant. Despite the absence of a unified Gulf perspective, the consequences of this watershed moment in Syria's history are apparent.
Gulf policies reveal that countries like the UAE, Bahrain and Oman supported the Assad regime to varying extents, particularly after Russia's 2015 intervention. By the 2020s, Assad gained limited regional and international backing through these Gulf states and other Russia and Iran-aligned actors.
Syria’s civil war, which lasted 13 years, came to an end on Dec. 8, 2024, when the Assad regime lost power. The main concern now is how the Gulf states will handle post-Assad Syria, even though their attitudes toward the country changed during this time.
Official statements from the Gulf states started to surface immediately following the regime's collapse. These countries seem to have united over the need for a peaceful, non-violent transfer of power in Syria, despite having different wartime strategies. Saudi Arabia urged non-interference, support for Syrians, and preserving state institutions. Qatar emphasized unity, safeguarding institutions and enforcing U.N. Resolution 2254. Oman called for a peaceful transition and opposed armed conflict.
This convergence shows that Gulf states agree that maintaining stability in Syria is critical to the security of the region and to determining Syria's political future. It remains to be seen, though, if this newfound unity will result in meaningful action.
Gulf countries' recent remarks demonstrate how their goals and dynamics in relation to Syria have changed. First, the spokesperson of Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs revealed plans to reopen the nation's embassy in Damascus. Furthermore, Qatar has started talks with the United States about Syria, indicating the possible importance of U.S.-Qatar ties in shaping Syria's post-conflict course. The UAE, prioritizing the Syrian people over ideological slogans, remains cautious of what it dubs “Islamic-leaning political groups.” Senior official Anwar Gargash criticized Assad's disregard for past advice while reaffirming support for Syrians.
Following Assad's collapse, Israel's actions beginning in Quneitra have been denounced by all Gulf states. During this crucial period of transition, these countries have voiced their strong opposition to any acts that could further destabilize Syria.
Similar to what happened after Oct. 7, 2023, Gulf nations are anticipated to reevaluate and realign their Middle Eastern political agendas after Dec. 8, 2024. Their approach to Syria will primarily be determined by what happens in the nation following the overthrow of the Assad government.
All Gulf states are expected to agree on promoting a peaceful transition of power and preserving Syria's territorial integrity, despite their divergent stances throughout the civil conflict. This agreement is based on a common desire to stop cross-border concerns, including drug trafficking, unauthorized immigration and the spread of militants – all of which were made worse under the Assad era. To overcome these obstacles, Syria must have a peaceful political transition.
Another area where the Gulf states could play a pivotal role is the reconstruction of post-Assad Syria. While countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain were prominent in efforts to reintegrate Assad’s regime into the Arab League, it is reasonable to anticipate broader Gulf participation in Syria’s rebuilding phase. Economic opportunities and the strategic importance of a stable Syria will likely attract contributions from across the region.
Gulf policies before Dec. 8 matter less amid new regional shifts. The weakening of Iran-backed forces and Assad's fall present Gulf states with chances to curb Iran's influence, showcasing their pragmatism and adaptability once again.
Looking ahead, Gulf states are likely to focus on three goals: leveraging Syria's reconstruction opportunities, capitalizing on Iran's reduced influence and ensuring Syria no longer fuels regional instability. This pragmatic strategy reflects their broader aim to balance economic interests with geopolitical realities in shaping the post-Assad Middle East.
In the future, regional peace, stability and prosperity may be largely dependent on collaboration between Türkiye and the Gulf nations in Syria. This collaboration could promote long-term regional security, reduce foreign threats and align interests.
