Türkiye in 2024 is strategically placed in a pivotal moment in the international energy market by virtue of its geographic proximity and expanding status as an energy hub.
Türkiye designated 2024 as its "Renewable Energy Year," as an important step in becoming energy sustainable. Solar capacity topped 10,000 megawatts (MW), which exemplified the nation’s interest in expanding its renewable energy resources. The achievement represents Türkiye’s commitment to lowering carbon emissions and diversifying its energy mix.
Powered by projects such as the Energy Exchange Istanbul (EPIAŞ), active participation in the World Energy Council (WEC) and significant advancements in the field of natural gas exploration, Türkiye has emerged as a major player in the energy industry. But that stature has inherent risks associated with volatility in global markets and geopolitics.
With 2024 as Türkiye’s energy success story, the prospects for 2050 reflect opportunities and risks.
The first scenario is based on high renewable adoption. In 2050, Türkiye aims to provide 75% of its electricity production from renewable sources with a solar capacity of over 50,000 MW and wind capacity of over 30,000 MW. E-storage and smart grid investments are vital to the integration of large amounts of renewables. It’s a scenario that complies with global decarbonization targets and places Türkiye at the forefront of green energy exports. U.K. Export Finance (UKEF) and Poland's export credit agency, KUKE, jointly guaranteed a 249 million euro loan ($260 million) being arranged by Standard Chartered Bank for Turkish renewable energy investment company Kalyon Enerji, enabling the construction of Türkiye's second-largest solar project to date. Relatedly, this act shows that Türkiye will focus on more renewable – mainly solar – investments.
If that does not come to fruition, Türkiye may also adopt a balanced energy policy. According to this scenario, although the focus is on renewable energy, Türkiye follows a balanced energy mix with renewables supplemented by natural gas and nuclear power. Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), which is expected to be operational by the late 2020s, will ensure stable, low-carbon electricity generation and a 30% reduction in gas imports via increased domestic production and regional pipeline infrastructure.
The final scenario involves weak growth in renewable energy penetration through financing and regulatory obstacles. The dependence on fossil fuels is continuing to increase, leaving Türkiye vulnerable to volatile global energy prices. This situation would pose threats to Türkiye’s energy and climate targets.
"Today’s decisions will determine the future of Türkiye’s energy," said Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar at a recent forum. "To secure a stable energy system, we need to focus on sustainability and innovation."
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations have become a driving force in Türkiye’s energy policy. Turkish companies are introducing ESG structures in order to reach international benchmarks and attract foreign investment. This trend can be seen in the renewable energy sector, where transparency, local involvement and sustainability have taken on new importance. Istanbul Stock Exchange’s ESG Index, launched to promote sustainable investment, highlights the role of ESG for energy companies.
Minister Bayraktar has underlined the importance of ESG in promoting responsible growth: "ESG is more than a must; it’s a roadmap for building a sustainable and equal energy future.
The Energy Exchange Istanbul (EPIAŞ) has become an integral part of Türkiye’s efforts to improve market transparency and liquidity in the energy sector. As a cross-European and cross-Asian transportation platform, EPIAŞ is enabling energy transactions and price fixings in electricity and natural gas. The robust platform has gained worldwide traction and many regard it as a beacon for other markets within the region.
"EPA is crucial for preserving market stability and facilitating foreign investments," added Bayraktar. EPA has under his leadership developed new technologies and policies to enhance its offerings, from blockchain for trading to AI-based forecasts of demand.
Electric vehicle adoption is also rising in Türkiye due to incentives by the governments and rising awareness from consumers. Turkish domestic EV manufacturing, including its flagship Togg brand, has established Türkiye as a regional market leader in this emerging market. In 2024, EV sales in Türkiye grew by 40% to illustrate the transition toward green transportation. In support of this growth, Türkiye has developed EV infrastructure including a nationwide fast-charging network. These developments are compatible with the nation’s decarbonization targets and its goal to minimize its dependence on foreign oil. "EV revolution is a key component of Türkiye’s energy change," a WEC official told me at a recent conference.
The energy efficiency of heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) is becoming an increasingly important issue in Türkiye’s urban and industrial landscape. Buildings are a major source of Türkiye’s energy consumption, and HVAC upgrades are a great cost-effective way to minimize energy usage. In 2024, the Turkish government also set higher standards of HVAC performance, requiring sophisticated technologies such as smart thermostats and energy recovery ventilation. Public education initiatives and incentives to upgrade legacy systems have also been initiated.
"By upgrading HVAC units, Türkiye can cut up to 15% of its annual energy use," the Gas Research Institute (GRI) said in a recent report. This HVAC energy efficiency initiative complements Türkiye’s overall sustainability initiatives and helps to ease the burden on its energy system during periods of high demand.
Türkiye’s discovery of black sea gas proved transformative for the country’s energy-independence plans. Sakarya gas field, with an estimated 710 billion cubic meters of reserves, commenced operations in 2023 and increased the scale in 2024. This accomplishment represents a Turkish hope to reduce dependence on energy imports from Russia and Iran.
"The Black Sea reserves inaugurate a new era for Türkiye’s energy stability," Bayraktar noted during a recent press conference. It is in line with the government’s intent to incorporate these reserves into the national grid as part of its overall drive to diversify the sources of energy and lower the prices for consumers.
GRI recognized the strategic significance of these findings, commenting: "The discovery of Turkish Black Sea gas further consolidates Türkiye’s national energy independence and bolsters its role in regional energy geopolitics.”
Despite these advancements, challenges persist. The high cost of offshore drilling, along with the technology required, requires collaborations with international companies. Moreover, regional disagreements in the Eastern Mediterranean over territorial claims could spill into the Black Sea and further complicate matters.
In 2024, the global energy situation is extremely uncertain. Geopolitical uncertainty, including Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine crisis and instability in the Middle East, has disrupted supply chains and driven up energy prices. These risks represent both a promise and a danger for Türkiye, which hopes to become a hub for pipelines such as TANAP (Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline) and TurkStream.
Türkiye’s approach is also influenced by the European Union’s emphasis on renewable energy and decarbonization. While compliance with the EU Green Deal will facilitate investment, it will mean making major changes to Türkiye’s energy portfolio. This dual approach of fostering fossil fuels and promoting renewables is nuanced but necessary.
"It’s not just economics – it’s diplomacy and security," said one energy practitioner at the World Energy Council’s (WEC) Istanbul summit.
Türkiye’s position as a mediator in the process of engaging key energy producers and consumers reflects its leadership.
Türkiye’s presence in the World Energy Council (WEC) is testimony to its dedication to global energy governance. During its membership, Türkiye has also voiced its views on energy resilience, sustainability and innovation. WEC’s Istanbul Summit 2024 highlighted Türkiye’s smart grid achievements and plans to deploy hydrogen into its portfolio.
Minister Bayraktar’s summit address captured Türkiye’s vision: "We want to combine energy security and sustainability in one, guaranteeing a consistent supply and climate targets." His speech struck a chord with international investors who consider Türkiye an energy-transition paradigm in the developing world.
Türkiye’s renewable energy reserves have also increased significantly, with wind and solar being its chief drivers. By 2024, renewables represent 54% of Türkiye’s total installed capacity through incentives for domestic and foreign investment. Initiatives such as the Karapınar Solar Power Plant and offshore wind farms also highlight Türkiye’s determination to be a global clean-energy leader. Yet the integration of renewables is challenging in many aspects, including grid stability and storage. Those challenges will take massive investment and policy innovation.
In pursuing the energy policy, Türkiye will need to maintain an equilibrium between domestic priorities and international imperatives. Its geographical role as a borderland between the East and the West presents its own unique advantages but also geopolitical threats. Türkiye must overcome these challenges by increasing regional cooperation via initiatives such as the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum; extending its energy portfolio by embracing renewables, increasing energy diplomacy to lower geopolitical risks and lastly combining green energy and AI smart technologies to maintain market competitiveness.
Türkiye’s 2024 energy market, in sum, demonstrates its strategic foresight and flexibility. By providing strong institutions such as EPA, game-changing natural gas and renewables projects and engaging the world through WEC, Türkiye is shaping energy for the turbulent future. But it is a challenge to realize such an opportunity that will involve geopolitical issues and the use of sustainable methods – a challenge that Türkiye under visionary leadership looks likely to overcome.
