The world is currently experiencing profound changes characterized by various challenges. Climate issues, armed conflicts, the most severe pandemic we have witnessed in the last century, economic stagnation on a global scale, high inflation, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and escalating tensions that could potentially lead to a conflict in Taiwan Strait are among the significant trials the world faces today. Resolving these complex issues necessitates the establishment of effective global governance systems and fostering a collective sense of international solidarity.

As the competition between the United States and China enters an irreversible path, this competition is not limited to the framework of bilateral relations alone. All other parties are trying to pursue a balanced policy while being affected by the aftershocks of this competition. Even if the U.S. and China were to give up on each other (although as Elon Musk puts it, these two countries are intertwined like "conjoined twins"), many third parties cannot currently depart from either Washington's security umbrella or Beijing's economic orbit.

As the world transitions into a multipolar order, diverse stakeholders ranging from small Pacific island nations to prominent organizations like the EU are actively working to navigate through turbulent waters. The upcoming decade is expected to be marked by increased uncertainty and unpredictability. In this dynamic environment, those who can uphold political stability and foster social harmony within their respective societies will gain a significant advantage.

Strategic autonomy

How should we understand "strategic autonomy"?

As the competition between China and the U.S. increasingly shapes the foundational aspects of international relations in the foreseeable future, the European Union has embraced the concept of "strategic autonomy" as its solution. This approach involves striking a balance between maintaining traditional security cooperation with the U.S. and striving to assert independence from U.S. dominance in relations with China. French President Emmanuel Macron has taken it a step further by emphasizing that Europe will not be a "vassal region" and will neither follow with the "American pace" nor "China's overreaction" over Taiwan. Europe is not alone in its pursuit of an alternative path. South Korea, a steadfast American ally, aims to diversify its economic and strategic relationships through the "New Southern Policy" initiative. India's "Act East Policy" also shares a similar perspective in alignment with this approach.

In a period of multipolarization in international relations, Ankara also needs to calibrate its own pace. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's slogan of the "Century of Türkiye" used in the recent elections and the emphasis on national foreign policy following the elections evoke similar connotations to the EU's concept of strategic autonomy. However, there are certain nuances between strategic autonomy and national foreign policy. When evaluating Ankara's diversification of its foreign policy, the concept of "strategic autonomy" falls short. Strategic autonomy should not be perceived as withdrawing and isolating oneself from great power competition. Additionally, the concept of "autonomy" here implies that foreign policy has not yet fully freed itself from all external dependencies. Türkiye’s potential goes far beyond this. In a period where a multipolar world order is emerging, and simultaneous de-dollarization efforts of the global economy gaining momentum, Türkiye has the potential to become one of these poles. Diversifying foreign policy is not about increasing your bargaining chips among parties; it requires evaluating the world as a whole from a global perspective. A national foreign policy becomes inward-looking if only limited to the scale of the national level alone. National foreign policy, by its very nature, should be based on a global vision.

The era of evaluating the world through familiar paradigms is now behind us. Differentiations such as West-East, Global South-Global North, or "Far East" are losing their validity. In such an environment, if we were to express it in football terms, everyone must first "defend their own goal." If we were to translate this into a political term, we could call it "self-sufficiency." Those who can achieve self-sufficiency in critical technologies, agriculture and industry, and food supply will also find more maneuvering space in their foreign policies. In the new era, the most fundamental component of Türkiye’s independent and national foreign policy should be to ensure self-sufficiency in critical areas.

Global vision, multidirectional diplomacy

Multidirectional diplomacy requires a global vision. When we look at the world map, we cannot afford to leave blind spots. Of course, it is understandable to focus on certain geographical regions and develop geographically oriented policies due to specific reasons. However, even in such cases, interactions with the surrounding region should be taken into account and examined. Evaluating Central Asia in the context of its relations with East Asia and Southeast Asia will facilitate our work as Türkiye makes efforts to increase its influence in Central Asia in the next decade. Initiatives such as the Middle Corridor, the Turkic Investment Fund, and the Asia Anew Initiative should be carried out in an integrated manner.

In recent years, Türkiye has displayed a growing global vision through initiatives like the "Asia Anew." In the upcoming era, it is crucial to substantiate these initiatives further. As we enhance our effectiveness in various mechanisms such as ASEAN, Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO), the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and BRICS, we must also strive to bolster our influence in Central Asia, where the initial moves of a "new great game" are taking place.

Especially the Southeast Asia region, with a population of 630 million and an average annual growth of 5%, is one of the engines of the global economy. The World Economic Forum predicts that ASEAN will transform from the world's fifth-largest economy to the fourth-largest one in the next decade. According to the calculations of the Asian Development Bank, by 2030, 70% of ASEAN's population will be part of the middle class, creating a $4 trillion consumer market. It is no coincidence that the competition between China and the U.S. is largely taking place in this region. Türkiye should gradually increase its political, economic, and cultural presence in the ASEAN region and, on one hand, benefit from the region's economic dynamism, while on the other hand, explore ways to offer a more reasonable third way to the countries in the region that are affected by the competition between China and the U.S.

Of course, Türkiye’s capacity and resources are limited compared to China and the United States, but we can anticipate that the small steps taken now can eventually turn into larger initiatives in the future.

Awareness of Asia among the Turkish public is growing. The term "Far East," which distorts our perception of history and geography, is now being replaced by more appropriate expressions such as East Asia and Southeast Asia. In the next stage, it is essential to maintain our perspective on East Asia with a much more sophisticated approach, considering the internal divisions within the region. Just as we cannot see the entire West as a homogeneous entity, there is no unified East either.

Prior to the presidential elections, what caught my attention in the foreign policy section of the "Common Consensus Document" (Ortak Mutabakat Metni) published by the People's Alliance (Millet İttifakı) was the inclusion of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the same context. Just as the European Union and NATO differ significantly, so do ASEAN and the SCO. It is crucial to have a more nuanced perspective that can perceive these differences. Moreover, recognizing the diversity within East Asia and Southeast Asia will help Türkiye develop more effective diplomatic strategies and partnerships. Rather than adopting a one-size-fits-all approach, tailored approaches that acknowledge the specific needs and interests of individual countries will yield better results.