Türkiye's first manned space mission journey begins with the blastoff of the first Turkish astronaut, Alper Gezeravcı. Along with international crewmembers, Gezeravcı's task will be docking to the International Space Station (ISS) to conduct various experiments for 14 days. The spaceflight mission named Ax-3 serves as a joint scientific exploration effort of Türkiye, Italy, Spain and Sweden.

For Türkiye, this space mission signifies more than just a leap of Gezeravcı; it also means the liftoff of the "Century of Türkiye" vision, which includes entering the new Space Age. Türkiye's first rendezvous to the ISS means gaining a seat in long-term space exploration and technological advancement. Türkiye's collaborative space endeavors are vital for such strategic steps to cope with other spacefaring countries and the private sector.

As more states increase their presence in outer space and start to claim rights, the new Space Age based on a more significant dilemma of competition and cooperation becomes more apparent. Consequently, what awaits Türkiye in outer space amid the new Space Age is worth glancing at.

Increasing competition

The 20th century was characterized by competition between two Cold War foes, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and the United States, to reach superior spaceflight capacity. But as more international actors like China started to operate in outer space in time, space activities vis-à-vis political implications have multiplied.

Now, outer space has emerged as an argumentative extent to which various prospects, interpretations and resources-based objectives could be envisioned under the international system and relations. It is now considered a spiral of influence and a power dynamic as outer space contains communication, economics, military strategies, territorial jurisdiction and sovereignty claims according to a state or private actor's satellite.

The lack of universally agreed rules and the existing gray zones on the most basic legally binding documents, such as the Outer Space Treaty signed in 1967 and the Moon Agreement of 1979, display the vacuum of regulating any cooperation, conflict or competition among the actors. This creates high risks for disagreements due to the need for a jointly agreed space law framework.

And the stakes are high this time, considering that over 80 nations now have a presence in space with the support of many private actors. Elon Musk's SpaceX, Michael T. Suffredini and Kam Ghaffarian's Axiom Space, and Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin and Ball Aerospace company led to a decrease in space exploration spending. Today, a SpaceX rocket launch can be 97% cheaper than Russia's launch of the Soyuz spacecraft in the 60s. Despite the pressure of inflation on the world economy, the global space industry is continuously growing.

In fact, a report from the Space Foundation published in July indicates that the space economy rose 8% in 2022 to $546 billion, illustrating a 91% growth over the past decade.

Hence, ensuring stability in rapidly growing outer space activities emerges as a vital necessity due to increased competition.

New modern space race

Obviously, the U.S., China and Russia are the vanguards of the new Space Age, but the dynamics are very different this time. Aside from the private sector, countries such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Japan, Israel, India, France and Iran have made significant progress in space exploration endeavors for outer space dominance.

India's Chandrayaan-3 mission, for instance, made a historic moon landing on Aug. 23, upgrading its status in the space competition. As a newcomer to the space probe, the UAE started its longest Arab space mission in history in 2023 by sending its astronaut, Sultan Al Neyadi, to the ISS for six months. Two Saudi astronauts, including the first female Saudi astronaut, Rayyanah Barnawi, docked at the ISS in 2023, leading the way in intensifying Saudi space missions. In this regard, Saudi Arabia has made substantial investments within its strategy to diversify its economy away from the oil industry by leaning on outer space resources.

Undoubtedly, the most crucial part is having a share of the natural resources that were recently found on the moon and Mars. For that purpose, in 2023, the U.S. launched its Artemis 1 lunar mission after 50 years, aiming to return to the moon and take further missions to Mars for exploration.

Many more international missions are planned to realize resource mining and exploration on the moon and Mars, which are believed to be rich in natural resources such as water, oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen, aluminum, carbon and helium-3. All these resources are desired as they can be used for the life support of astronauts, fuel and energy production, crucial technology advancement and nuclear fusion. Many nations have ambitions to pursue abundant materials to gain potential profits and claim rights, similar to maritime dispute cases for natural reserves.

This also set forth the modern warfare aspect as nations feel compelled to defend their assets and satellites to achieve their objectives. Since satellites have become increasingly essential to global trade, communication and cybersecurity, protecting them from various threats is vital. Missiles fired by the major powers and blowing up their own satellites to test weapons are also critical pieces of the emerging new era of outer space and conflict. In 2021, Russia, for instance, conducted an anti-satellite weapon test that left debris in orbit that threatened the ISS and other satellites, causing a backlash.

While the overall competition is happening between the U.S. and China due to their large space capacity, this new space phase also has a strategic battle. It is based on a hegemony competition where the dominant power can deter other powers' ambitions. Those who lead the way will set parameters, orders and rules in outer space that others may be expected to follow. Hence, other countries evaluate their options to form alliances in outer space blocs while progressing their capabilities.

Eventually, all these signs reflect that outer space is on its way to where geopolitical cooperation and rivalry go into orbit in the 21st century. And with new technology and the commercialization of outer space, the delimitations and possible sets of rules continue to be disputed both theoretically and practically. However, the lack of consensus on the conceptualization of outer space poses problems and may increase tension since unilateral actions result in sovereignty-based legal uncertainty.

Tackling such problems and fostering cooperation could only be possible by having a stake in negotiation in outer space and beginning the journey as a spaceflight nation.

In this regard, Turkiye's initiated space vision with its astronaut Gezeravcı embodies a significant step to prevent falling behind in setting the universally acclaimed order. After all, it is an effort compatible with Turkiye's vision to have a say on rules-based space order and seek rights by not taking what's happening in outer space for granted.

*MA graduate at Ibn Haldun University studying Outer Space Security, producer at TRT World