In November 2021, Turkey tested a domestically engineered long-range missile defense called the Siper that will complement the country’s layered missile defense system, along with the Korkut, Sungur and HISAR O+ air defense systems. Due to security concerns, Turkey aspires to develop a layered defense system in the near future. One of the country's biggest concerns is that its airspace remains vulnerable to adversaries’ long-range missile attacks. Its goal has been to acquire the systems for two crucial objectives: One is to intercept threats from longer distances, and the other is to counter tactical ballistic missile capabilities. These two goals have resulted in Turkey concentrating on a layered missile defense system that could fulfill its security needs.

Turkey faces missile threats from states like Iran, Israel and the United States. Moreover, Turkish troops stationed in Libya backing the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli also face threats from missiles and airpower, while the protection of troops stationed in Syria cannot be neglected. It must be noted that the NATO missile defense systems stationed in Turkey in accordance with Article 5 of the Washington Treaty during the ongoing Syrian crisis were removed from the country in 2016 on the grounds that Turkey no longer faced threats from Syria and faced threats from Daesh only. Thus, Turkey since then has been left on its own to ensure its own defense.

The Patriot case

The U.S. has also refused to sell Patriots to Turkey. Though Turkey was offered the Patriot system later with a string attached – that it would not operate the Russian S-400s as the system could interfere with NATO missile defense systems and compromise the countermeasures equipped in them – Turkey did not go ahead with the Patriot purchase. Developing indigenous systems not only provides a boost to the domestic defense industries in dire need of a revamp owing to the economic crisis, but Turkey is also concerned about the U.S. backing of the PKK-linked terrorist elements in northern Syria.

The S-400s won’t be integrated into NATO systems, and so in the future, Turkey will need air and missile defense systems that are compatible. Developing indigenous missile defense capabilities is likely a way for Turkey to possess interoperable capabilities with NATO should the need arise.

In addition, Turkey has witnessed how its efforts to purchase the Patriots were rebuffed by the U.S. in the initial phase. Again, it faced serious complexities with the Chinese FD-2000 (HQ-9) air defense system, which it chose to purchase initially in 2013. However, with issues arising over the transfer of technology, with China not fulfilling Turkey’s level of transfer, Turkey scrapped the deal in 2015.

At the same time, with the purchase of the S-400s, Turkey faced problems in modernizing its depleting airpower capabilities as the U.S. in 2019 excluded Turkey from its list for delivering the F-35 fighter jets. By then, Turkey had already started to manufacture parts of the F-35s locally. To add to this complexity, there was the dilemma of how to resolve the F-35 deal, for which Ankara had already paid $1.4 billion.

Hence, Turkey realized that indigenous defense capabilities provide a wider scope for Turkey to cooperate with its NATO allies and other partners. Though the negotiations with Turkey under U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration are heading toward a possible deal on the F-35s, Turkey has still a long way to go, as the U.S. may only allow such a deal to succeed again if Turkey refuses to purchase the Russian systems. Hence, the strings attached to its efforts to modernize its air force with U.S. aircraft may have been a reason why Turkey foresaw the need to develop indigenous weapon systems.

Modernization as another reason

It could also be that Turkey has recognized the necessity to modernize its airpower given the threats it faces and its ambitions in the region. For example, it remains entangled in the Aegean Sea crisis with Greece, with both parties accusing each other of violating their airspace. Hence, it is possible that Turkey, which is in dire need of upgrading and modernizing its air force, sees a domestically developed missile defense system compatible with NATO systems as a way to convince the U.S. that Ankara still trusts the alliance and considers itself an integral member despite its defense ties with Russia.

In addition, Turkey, which is fighting in Libya to support the GNA, realizes well that it may need U.S. support since Russia is supporting the putschist Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s forces in Libya. Again, Russia occupying Crimea threatens Turkey’s stakes in the Black Sea region. With the recent Russian moves of its armed forces using missiles, bombers and artillery in Ukraine to exert its influence, Turkey will likely focus on its indigenous air and missile defense system rather than just depending on foreign weapon systems to secure its strategic interests.