If Donald Trump returns to the White House, U.S. relations with Central Asia may enter a new chapter. A significant shift is on the horizon, one that could redefine diplomatic dynamics in a region often overlooked in U.S. foreign policy. Trump is an unusual political figure compared to most world leaders, known for his unpredictable nature. He has shown a propensity for swift decisions and sometimes unexpected actions. Many of these moves were evident during his first presidential term, particularly regarding U.S.-Central Asia relations.

Traditionally, U.S. foreign policy has not prioritized Central Asia. In fact, it has long been criticized for neglecting regional interests, a criticism that carries weight. Central Asia presents numerous investment opportunities and strategic advantages for countries willing to cooperate. The region is rich in natural resources, including oil, gas and minerals, which are essential for global markets.

Historically, win-win relationships have benefited partner nations. This dynamic is clear in interactions with major powers like Russia and China. Rising middle powers, such as Türkiye, are also increasing their regional influence, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.

Under Trump, the U.S. could potentially engage in a more proactive approach toward Central Asia. His willingness to challenge established norms may open doors that have long remained closed. For instance, Trump already demonstrated a willingness to enhance diplomatic ties with the region. His involvement with the C5+1 platform – a diplomatic forum that includes the five Central Asian republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – is a notable example. This initiative has opened new channels for dialogue and cooperation, highlighting the importance of mutual interests in the region.

Economic focus

When people think of Trump, the economy and trade often come to mind. During his first presidency, he positioned trade and economic interests at the core of his diplomatic efforts. He frequently ignored traditional norms in U.S. agreements, focusing instead on what he perceived as advantageous for American interests. If he wins a second term, it is reasonable to expect this trend to continue. Central Asian leaders are keen to bolster economic cooperation. The region is ripe for investment, particularly in infrastructure development, energy projects and technology exchanges. Trump will likely enhance bilateral relations, facilitating new economic partnerships. Concrete projects and agreements are anticipated to emerge during his initial visit to the region, setting the stage for long-term cooperation.

Moreover, as Central Asian nations seek to diversify their economies, they are increasingly turning to international partnerships. Trump's focus on pragmatic economic engagement aligns well with these aspirations. He may encourage American businesses to explore opportunities in the region, particularly in sectors such as energy, agriculture, and telecommunications. By promoting investment in Central Asia, Trump could help these nations develop their economies while also securing favorable terms for U.S. enterprises.

Balancing China

However, Trump’s approach to Central Asia will not be without challenges. One significant concern is balancing China's foreign influence and expansionism. China has been remarkably active in Central Asia, leveraging its geographic advantage through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In recent years, China's expansionist policies have reached into Africa and the Middle East, increasing its foothold in Central Asia. The Chinese government seeks to assert itself in the region, sometimes at the expense of Russian influence. If re-elected, Trump will likely aim to counterbalance this encroachment, viewing China's activities as a direct challenge to U.S. interests.

In other words, China's role will undoubtedly shape Trump's Central Asia policy. The U.S. is engaged in global competition with China across various domains, including trade, technology and military presence. Proactive measures may be necessary to safeguard American investments in the region and maintain economic and diplomatic equilibrium. This could manifest in increased business ventures and more frequent diplomatic visits. Interestingly, Trump may find unexpected allies among traditional U.S. diplomats and foreign policymakers – often at odds with him – who share concerns about China's growing influence. In recent years, China has emerged as a diplomatic adversary, competing with the U.S. across multiple fronts, from technology to trade.

A favorable outlook

It is also essential to consider how Central Asia views Trump. There is a strong possibility of a favorable perspective. Central Asian leaders have little reason to oppose a pragmatic U.S. leader. In recent years, these nations have sought to enhance their global political influence through various platforms, investments and projects. They no longer wish to remain solely under Russian influence. This desire for multipolarity is evident. Countries are increasingly willing to move away from bloc politics and shift eastward in search of benefits. The region's leaders are keen to foster relationships with multiple global powers, recognizing that diversification is essential for their sovereignty and development. Consequently, there is no reason for the U.S. president and Central Asian leaders to refrain from pursuing mutual interests when tangible opportunities arise.

This situation does not bode well for Russia. Counteractions are likely, especially given that Russian President Vladimir Putin is known for being a tough playmaker. Russia has historically viewed Central Asia as its sphere of influence, and any perceived encroachment by the U.S. could provoke a strong response. As a result, a rivalry is expected to emerge, adding complexity to the regional dynamics. The geopolitical tug-of-war between Russia and the U.S. in Central Asia could reshape the balance of power, impacting local leaders’ strategies and decisions.

Security concerns

A second Trump presidency could also bring positive developments for security in Central Asia. Regional leaders facing various security challenges may welcome the balance that Trump could provide. Security threats, including terrorism, drug trafficking and regional instability, pose significant challenges to Central Asian nations. In an era where bloc politics are waning, security pacts could appeal to regional countries. Such agreements would allow them to counter threats without being beholden to any single power. The potential for U.S.-led security initiatives could create a framework for cooperation that enhances regional stability.

Historically, Trump has been wary of regions marked by chaos and conflict. For instance, he withdrew U.S. troops from neighboring Afghanistan during his presidency, signaling a preference for reduced military presence in the area. Instead of seeking to expand military influence, the U.S. may focus on increasing support and incentives for security investments in Central Asia. This could involve training and equipping local forces to combat security threats, fostering a more self-reliant approach to regional stability.

Furthermore, engaging with Central Asia on security issues could enhance U.S. standing in the region. By offering strategic assistance and fostering collaborative efforts to combat terrorism and extremism, the U.S. could build trust and goodwill among Central Asian nations. Such engagement could position the U.S. as a valuable partner in addressing shared security challenges, further strengthening ties and fostering a collaborative environment.

Of course, potential changes could unfold across various sectors. These examples merely scratch the surface of what could be a transformative period for U.S.-Central Asia relations. Regardless of the area, Trump is expected to steer discussions toward concrete trade and economic initiatives. Such developments would ultimately benefit policymakers in the region.

Shortly, a potential Trump presidency may usher in a new era for U.S.-Central Asia relations. His unconventional approach could yield opportunities for collaboration, balancing influences and addressing security concerns. As the global landscape evolves, Central Asia’s strategic importance may come to one of the forefronts of American foreign policy. If Trump can successfully balance this region, he may redefine the nature of U.S. engagement in Central Asia, transforming it into a vital arena for American interests and partnerships.