After an extended period of intense electoral campaigns and significant events – including an assassination attempt on Donald Trump and President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race – the American people have elected Trump as their 47th president. Given his controversial first term from 2017 to 2021, there is widespread debate and uncertainty surrounding his second term. Trump's presidency will undoubtedly influence not only U.S. policies but also the global system at large. One of the most affected domains will be technology.

It is fair to say that technology will face substantial impacts as Trump assumes power, not just due to its rising importance in global affairs – especially in terms of the U.S.-China great power competition – but, crucially, because big tech companies have never been so directly involved in a U.S. presidential election. Their involvement has gone beyond financial contributions seen in previous elections; this time, they have openly taken political stances regarding the candidates and participated in the electoral campaigns. A notable example is Elon Musk, who has been vocal in his support for President-elect Trump and has strategically used X (the social media platform he owns) as a key tool to bolster Trump's campaign.

Given this backdrop, a critical question arises: What can we expect from Trump’s upcoming presidency in terms of technological advancements, both within the U.S. and globally? Additionally, what role will these influential tech companies play in shaping this new era?

Technology as battleground

Before going into details about the future of technology, it is crucial to emphasize that the U.S.-China rivalry will remain a top priority on Trump's foreign policy agenda. It is worth recalling that bilateral relations significantly deteriorated during Trump's first presidency with the rivalry being called for the first time as a "great power rivalry" and have continued to decline ever since. However, during that period, trade and economic issues were at the forefront of the rivalry. With the advent of the Biden Administration and the growing significance of technology, the focus of U.S.-China competition shifted toward technological rivalry, marked by key measures such as the American ban on semiconductor exports and the AI Chip Acts – some of the most impactful steps taken in recent years by an American administration.

Within this context, it is expected that under Trump's presidency, the U.S.-China rivalry will persist as a central theme of foreign policy and will continue to be shaped by technological competition, as evidenced during his electoral campaign. Even when discussing future technological strategies, particularly in AI policy, Trump consistently framed the conversation around the U.S.-China power struggle. He underscored the necessity for the U.S. to maintain its technological edge, not just for commercial interests but also for military supremacy. This approach highlights Trump's commitment to countering China's rapid advancements and ensuring the U.S. remains at the forefront of global technological leadership. At the same time, it suggests that the Trump administration will prioritize policies that reinforce America's technological infrastructure and tighten controls over critical technologies to limit China's access and influence.

Future of semiconductor policies

While Trump is expected to tighten control over critical technologies, this does not imply that he will follow the same path as his predecessor. Notably, Trump recently criticized the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, which was signed in August 2022, allocating nearly $53 billion to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing and research, aimed at enhancing U.S. competitiveness with China. Trump argued that the companies benefiting from this funding might ultimately prove ineffective.

Considering this, it is likely that Trump will retain significant elements of the CHIPS Act due to its bipartisan nature, but he will likely introduce substantial changes, particularly regarding the allocation of funds and the selection of companies that receive support. Additionally, Trump is expected to place greater emphasis on tariffs, a strategy he favored during his first presidency. This indicates a potential shift toward more aggressive trade measures aimed at curbing China's influence and protecting American technological interests.

When discussing semiconductors, the Taiwan issue cannot be overlooked. Taiwan plays a crucial role in producing American-designed chips, making it central to U.S. tech strategy. Unlike Biden, Trump has not been a staunch advocate of military support for Taiwan. He has openly stated that Taiwan has "stolen" U.S. semiconductor business and has suggested that the island should contribute more to its own defense, hinting at a reduction in military backing. Therefore, we may see maybe more tech companies that operate in Taiwan come and build their factories in the U.S. A similar scenario unfolded previously when, prompted by the AI Chips Act, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the leading semiconductor producer in Taiwan, shifted its focus to establishing AI chip manufacturing facilities in the United States.

In summary, potential expectations for a future Trump administration include restructured semiconductor funding while maintaining an emphasis on domestic production, increased tariffs on Chinese goods, and a more reserved approach to supporting Taiwan. These strategies reflect Trump’s intent to bolster U.S. self-reliance and reassert control over key technological resources.

AI policies, regulations

Under the Biden administration, AI policy was heavily centered around regulation, not only domestically but also internationally, spearheaded by Vice President Kamala Harris. This included the signing of the "Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence," aimed at establishing robust standards for AI safety and security. These efforts reflected the administration’s ambition to maintain global leadership in both AI development and regulation. However, a second Trump administration would take a markedly different approach. Trump has already expressed his intent to revoke this executive order, arguing that it stifles technological progress by imposing "radical left-wing ideas." Although the specifics of what aspects of Biden’s order would be dismantled remain unclear, it is certain that the Trump administration would deprioritize AI regulation in favor of fostering innovation and supporting private companies.

Overall, a second Trump term would likely focus on deregulation and a market-driven strategy for innovation. This aligns with Trump’s broader economic philosophy of minimizing government intervention and championing a private sector-led AI ecosystem. Coupled with rhetoric centered on the competitive threat posed by China and a zero-sum view of foreign policy, the administration is expected to heavily invest in military AI advancements and increase federal budget allocations to secure America's global technological edge.

What about Big Tech?

During Trump’s first presidency, his relationship with major tech companies and their leaders was marked by considerable tension and public disputes, particularly with high-profile figures like Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos. However, during his recent presidential campaign, this dynamic shifted significantly, as various venture capitalists and prominent tech figures expressed their support for Trump. In this context, the choice of J. D. Vance as Trump's vice-presidential candidate was seen as a strategic move to build stronger ties with the tech industry, given Vance’s connections and insights into the sector.

Despite these shifts, many key figures in Silicon Valley neither openly opposed Trump nor refrained from publicly acknowledging his victory. After Trump's election, several influential tech leaders, including Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Apple CEO Tim Cook, Alphabet and Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, and Amazon Executive Chair Jeff Bezos, congratulated him via their social media accounts.

Elon Musk, in particular, emerged as one of Trump’s most influential supporters, playing a pivotal role in amplifying his campaign. Trump even suggested that Musk could be part of a future administration, signaling the significant influence that big tech might have in shaping his policies.

One major issue closely watched by both policymakers and tech companies has been antitrust actions against major tech firms. While the Biden administration, under the leadership of Biden and Harris, pushed for stricter antitrust measures, Trump is expected to take a more lenient approach, potentially stopping or reversing these initiatives. This stance is supported by the statement of Elon Musk that Lina Khan, the head of the Federal Trade Commission known for pursuing antitrust cases against companies like Amazon and Meta, would be fired. However, Trump and Vance are likely to continue holding a critical view of Google, which they have accused of bias against them.

Overall, these developments suggest that big tech companies are poised to wield considerable influence in a second Trump administration. Trump has mentioned the potential establishment of "industry-led" agencies to oversee AI model evaluations and shield them from foreign competition, underscoring the pivotal role big tech would play in shaping technological policies and innovation under his leadership.

With all these considered, we can argue that big techs are here to stay more than ever. Their role in driving technological advancement will persist, and their influence within decision-making circles is set to expand. This will undoubtedly spark further discussions about the evolving landscape of international affairs and the emergence of new power players on the global stage.