Türkiye has crowned its nearly 20-year-long win-win-oriented policy in Africa by successfully concluding the Ankara Process, one of the many constructive efforts aiming at contributing to peace, security and development of the continent. Preventing the crisis between Somalia and Ethiopia from escalating into a regional war became possible largely thanks to Türkiye's efforts. The risks to Somalia’s territorial integrity, national sovereignty and independence carried the potential to turn this crisis into a full-scale conflict. Had it evolved into such a scenario, not only Somalia and Ethiopia but also the regional and global systems would have been significantly damaged amid a dim appetite for regional cooperation. By reaching a consensus through the Ankara Process, critical steps were taken toward achieving regional peace and stability in the Horn of Africa.

From tension to dialogue

The tension between Ethiopia and Somalia sparked on Jan.1, 2024, when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali signed a controversial memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the previous Somaliland administration led by Muse Bihi Abdi. This development directly threatened Somalia's territorial integrity and sovereignty. Such circumstances seemed almost certain to ignite a war between the two countries. Worse, the conflict could have escalated into a regional war fueled by emerging alliances. From Jan. 1 to July 2024, there was no communication or dialogue between the parties. The memories of the bizarre protocol situation during the African Union Summit on Feb. 17-18, 2024 are still fresh in the minds.

Türkiye’s intervention enabled dialogue and communication between the parties. As everyone would agree, starting a war is easy but it benefits no one. On the contrary, it causes significant losses, primarily to the people living in the region and to the global system as a whole. Aware of this reality and as a country committed to the principle of "Peace at Home, Peace in the World," Türkiye played a pivotal role in resolving the crisis between Somalia and Ethiopia. The Ankara Process provided the environment needed for the parties to overcome this crisis. In this context, a reliable and rational actor was essential for the resolution and under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s leadership. Türkiye fulfilled this role successfully.

Türkiye's mediation prevented the escalation of the crisis and tension, contributing to averting a potential war. In reality, the issue arose from a lack of due diligence and an approach inconsistent with international law in terms of both content and method. In fact, the sense of historical injustice, that dates back to the colonial era, as well as the fragile security situation in the region creates a Hobbesian political scene where the unilateral fait accomplis may seem like the only way forward. Thus, this situation necessitated efforts to find a resolution through a process initiated by a well-trusted regional actor, no one other than Türkiye led by President Erdoğan, who showed remarkable craftsmanship under the framework of the Ankara Process. Through this initiative, Türkiye established a constructive dialogue between the parties, laying the groundwork for the peaceful resolution of tensions and facilitating an intense diplomatic effort at the leadership and ministerial levels from July to the present day.

This process prevented the escalation of regional crises and tensions, sparing both the regional countries and the international system from the consequences of a potential war. In short, the Ankara Declaration, signed as a result of efforts led by Erdoğan and carried out by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and his experienced team attuned to local dynamics and the sensitivities of their counterparts, achieved this milestone.

Gains of balanced diplomacy

The Ankara Declaration’s emphasis on adherence to international law, the United Nations Charter and the Constitutive Act of the African Union was critically significant. Reaffirming respect for Somalia's territorial integrity was crucial in writing the unit. Türkiye's active role in this process once again consolidated the legitimacy of the Somali Federal Government on the international stage.

Moreover, the Ankara Process marked a turning point for peace and stability not just for the two nations but for the entire Horn of Africa. That is why Türkiye received praise from the international community, even from the countries known for their skepticism about Türkiye’s role in Africa. In fact, Türkiye’s diplomatic efforts effectively curbed the growing threats posed by Daesh and the long-standing menace of al-Shabab in the region. In this context, Türkiye’s contributions to global counterterrorism efforts are also noteworthy. Ultimately, the peace established through the Ankara Declaration opened the door to a new era of economic opportunities, allowing Turkish and international investors to expand their activities in the region.

The declaration's acknowledgment of Ethiopia's right to commercial access to the Red Sea under the sovereign authority of the Federal Government of Somalia represents a solution consistent with international law. With an emphasis on international law, the U.N. and African Union agreements implicitly highlighted the relevance of the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This indicated a shared intention by Ethiopia and Somalia to operate in harmony under the convention for commercial purposes. However, this intention cannot be reduced solely to economic and commercial interests. It also provides assurances that Ethiopia will not seek a military presence in Somali waters.

In short, the Ankara Declaration not only safeguarded Ethiopia's commercial interests but also reaffirmed and ensured respect for Somalia's sovereignty, allaying the regional actors' fears that a new armed conflict may emerge. Türkiye's constructive role in the Ankara Process carries the potential to contribute to long-term regional integration and shared development goals through a win-win approach that extends beyond economic gains.

Türkiye’s strategic advantage

Over the past 20 years, Türkiye’s win-win policy in Africa has once again proven its efficacy through the Ankara Process. With a needs-based foreign policy approach, Türkiye prioritizes the interests of regional countries while aiming for economic gains and a strategy centered on regional security, peace and stability.

The success of the Ankara Process has, to some extent, reshaped global and regional power dynamics. Türkiye’s win-win policy has positioned it as a trusted partner and constructive mediator in the eyes of local actors, in contrast to other foreign powers seeking to increase their influence in the region.

The process has also attracted the attention of other international actors. Since the beginning, European countries have closely monitored the process, trying to understand and learn from its developments. One of these countries is France. In this context, French President Emmanuel Macron’s upcoming visits to Ethiopia and Djibouti signal the potential onset of new diplomatic competition in the region. Following its loss of influence in the Sahel and West Africa, France appears to be turning its attention to East Africa.

Furthermore, the presence of the Houthis in the southern Red Sea and anticipated activities by Israel on its southern front add to the regional dynamics that require careful observation. Türkiye’s influence in the Horn of Africa has thus gained greater importance for the security of the Red Sea and the protection of international trade routes. In this regard, the rising global and regional competition in the Horn of Africa signals new opportunities and challenges for Türkiye.

New benefits of peace, security

Türkiye’s policies in Africa are now perceived as a trusted and contributive model by African nations. The desire to walk and win together with Türkiye remains strong. The success in fostering peace between Somalia and Ethiopia has enhanced Türkiye’s diplomatic influence and credibility on the global stage. Just two days after the Ankara Declaration, the potential for peace talks between Sudan and the United Arab Emirates, mediated by Türkiye, could add a new chapter to the success of the Ankara Process.

In summary, the consensus reached between Ethiopia and Somalia and Türkiye’s win-win policy has benefited the global system as well. This successful process management, which paves the way for emerging economic opportunities and political stability, has further consolidated Türkiye’s role and influence in Africa. The success of the Ankara Process demonstrates that Türkiye is a key player in ensuring sustainable regional peace and global stability.