Although global warming and climate change directly affect our daily lives, they do not find enough media coverage. That is why they are considered the most insidious disasters of our age. While extraordinary precipitation, storms, droughts, and unexpected weather events due to climate change make the news, the invisible threat of rising heat waves negatively affects every aspect of our lives including health, education, agriculture, energy, economy, even migrations, and national borders.
Let's face it, the planet we live in faces the threat of climate change due to human activities. Although the current temperatures are said to be part of a natural cycle, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at this rate, the extreme heat of today will become the new normal of tomorrow. Do you think I am exaggerating?
The Paris Climate Agreement aims to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels. However, the European Climate Change Service (C3S) has confirmed that the temperature increase has reached 1.6 degrees Celsius. Thus, while those who prepare for the new normal will land on both feet, the ones who ignore the threat will pay a high price. That is why I find U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres' call for all parties to take joint action “to combat extreme heat" on July 24, 2024, meaningful, as extreme heat may be the most disastrous consequence of climate change.
According to the "State of the Global Climate 2023" report published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in March 2024, 2023 experienced the highest temperatures ever observed. The report indicates that the global average temperature was 1.43 degrees Celsius higher than the preindustrial period, making the years from 2015 to 2023 the warmest period ever recorded. Similarly, in WMO’s “Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2024-2028),” which was published in June 2024, it is stated that there is a 47% chance that global temperatures will be 1.5 degrees higher than preindustrial levels for the next five years and an 80% chance that temperatures will exceed this threshold for at least one year within the same period.
In another study published by Copernicus, the European Climate Change Service, in July 2024, it was reported that the global temperature value between July 2023 and June 2024 was 1.64 degrees higher compared to the preindustrial period. The study also reveals that June 2024 was the hottest month on record. Within this period, Italy, Greece and Türkiye experienced extreme heat conditions that adversely affected daily life.
On July 23, 2024, temperature records were broken in various regions. In some parts of Spain and Italy, temperatures exceeded 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit). According to data provided by Copernicus, successive daily temperature records occurred throughout July. July 21, 2024, was recorded as the hottest day on Earth in terms of average surface temperature. It was later determined by NASA that July 22, 2024, surpassed the temperature recorded on July 21, setting a new record.
Experts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and NASA believe that increasing levels of greenhouse gas emissions will lead to a greater rise in the number and intensity of heat waves. According to research conducted by NASA, which verifies this thesis, the number of heat waves in the U.S. has doubled from two to four every month in the last 40 years.
The escalating reliance on air conditioners, driven by surging temperatures, is significantly amplifying global energy consumption. The International Energy Agency's (IAE) "2023 Global Electricity Market Report" indicates that cooling accounts for 10% of worldwide electricity usage. In hot areas, the demand for electrical energy can surge by 50% during the summer months, when temperatures peak.
High demand puts serious pressure on both energy distribution infrastructures and power generation. In China, at least 800 tons of coal must be used in one hour to cool Shanghai residents to the desired level. As examples demonstrate, it is a vicious cycle. Increasing emissions exacerbate heat waves, which cause more energy usage and thus more fossil fuel consumption to combat the heat. This increases greenhouse gas emissions into the air and hence the scale of damage. According to IAE assessments, cooling technologies are responsible for 3% of greenhouse gas emissions on a global basis. A significant factor that makes the greenhouse effect of the cooling sector more alarming than many others is that the gasses used for cooling technologies have a higher global warming potential than carbon dioxide.
Our choices and modern lifestyle also have a critical impact on the issue as well. For instance, in the past populations like Anatolian nomads used to migrate to cooler areas such as highlands during hot seasons and stay in warmer areas in cold seasons to minimize their heating needs. Today, there is a reverse situation. Modern people travel to warmer regions in summer and colder regions in winter, which leads to the consumption of more energy to meet heating and cooling needs.
Loss of life due to the direct or indirect effects of climate change, such as drought, extreme heat, and precipitation is increasing day by day. In the 2021 report “WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2019)” it is stated that more than 2 million lives were lost due to disasters between 1970 and 2019, and the economic damage exceeded $4 trillion. The report also points out that nine out of every 10 casualties and 60% of the economic damage are in developing economies.
Hot weather not only diminishes the quality of life but also poses serious health risks, particularly to vulnerable groups such as children in their developmental years. In 2024, extreme heat led to the suspension of education for 80 million students worldwide. In June 2024, high temperatures caused some schools in Boston, the capital of Massachusetts, U.S., to close due to inadequate ventilation systems. Across Bangladesh, temperatures were 16 degrees above normal in April 2024, as in June 2023, leading to the suspension of classes for 33 million students. In South Sudan, a heat wave exceeding 45 degrees in May 2024 resulted in the closure of schools for two weeks. Similar situations occurred in Pakistan, India and the Philippines.
Increasing temperatures also have negative effects on work efficiency. The International Labor Organization's (ILO) 2019 report on the impacts of rising heat on work performance shows that temperatures exceeding 24-26 degrees reduce productivity. A laborer working at 33-34 degrees will experience a 50% loss of performance efficiency, which can also lead to health problems for outdoor workers. The report also notes that even if the global temperature rise is limited to an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, 2.2% of total working hours will be lost by 2030, equivalent to 80 million full-time jobs worldwide. The economic loss in work productivity due to heat effects, which was equivalent to $280 billion in 1994, is projected to reach $2.4 trillion by 2030.
Oceans cover three-quarters of the Earth's surface, thereby playing a crucial role in the natural heat cycles. Due to water's high heat retention capacity compared to air, approximately 90% of the heat released into the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans and seas. While this function mitigates the extent of global temperature increase, it simultaneously contributes to the warming of marine environments, thereby threatening marine ecosystems and exacerbating the intensity of destructive storms. In addition, excessive warming of the seas accelerates glacier melting, causing water levels to rise. This results in the flooding of islands and coastal settlements, altering existing maps. Combined with droughts that will impact millions of people, these changes are expected to trigger mass migrations.
Droughts resulting from heat waves also pose a major risk to water and food supply chains. According to the assessments of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in its 2023 report, “The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security,” an additional 1.27 million people will experience food insecurity due to longer heat waves and droughts compared to the 1980-2010 period. The same report pointed out that the drought in Western Europe in 2022 caused a 45% decrease in crop yields and up to a 30% decrease in wheat and rice yields, despite advancing technology.
Extreme heat and dry weather also pose a major threat to forests, which are of utmost importance in fighting climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that fire seasons may become longer and the immensity of burned areas may increase depending on the global temperature increase. In other words, climate change increases the severity and impact of forest fires.
The Mediterranean basin is among the most vulnerable regions to climate change. A 2016 NASA study revealed that the drought experienced in Mediterranean countries, including Türkiye, from 1998 to 2012 was the most severe in the past 900 years. Historical records suggest that a similar drought impacted the region between 1560 and 1640, severely affecting the Ottoman Empire and contributing to its eventual decline.
According to the 2023 assessments of Türkiye’s General Directorate of Meteorology (MGM), the average temperature in 2023 was 1.3 degrees higher than the average temperature values of previous years. This value has gradually increased over the decades. While the average temperature was 12.7 degrees Celsius during the 1980-1990 period, it rose to 13.1 degrees between 1991 and 2001, 13.6 degrees in the 2002-2012 period and 14.3 degrees in the 2013-2023 period, which is 1.7 degrees higher than the 1980-1990 period. According to MGM data, June 2024 was the warmest month on record in the last 53 years, with the highest average temperature, 3.4 degrees above the long-term average.
Türkiye, encircled by seas on three sides, may face a range of imminent challenges, including forest fires, submergence of coastal areas due to rising sea levels and droughts. According to MGM, the inland, southern and western regions of Türkiye are facing the threat of an extreme drought. The misuse of ground and surface water, especially through irresponsible agricultural irrigation, exacerbates this problem. Water levels in dams across many provinces have already plummeted to alarming levels, risking both water and food supplies. Given Türkiye’s strategic location along projected global climate migration routes, effective management of food and water resources becomes critically important.
While it may seem like a pessimistic outlook, it would be irresponsible to overlook the severe natural disasters fueled by rising temperatures. We must urgently raise awareness, enhance our infrastructure and take united action to address these challenges. Only through collective effort can we effectively confront and mitigate the impacts of global warming.
