From the recent development, it appears that the military cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea is gradually progressing toward a military alliance, a prospect laden with implications that may undermine regional peace and stability. The strategic alignment of these key players in the Asia-Pacific region prompts a critical examination of the potential consequences accompanying the evolution from cooperative efforts to a formalized military alliance. Such a shift carries inherent risks, injecting an element of heightened tension into an already delicate regional equilibrium.

For quite some time, the U.S., Japan and South Korea have embarked on a path of deepening military cooperation. This journey is marked by the recent agreement to develop a multi-year trilateral exercise plan within the coming year, as well as the implementation of more systematic and efficient joint exercises starting in January. Additionally, a real-time data-sharing scheme concerning North Korean missiles is set to begin in December as part of the follow-up measures of the Camp David Summit held in August this year. This progression signifies the institutionalization of military cooperation among these three nations.

'New cold war' against China

The U.S. has been actively seeking to merge the U.S.-Japan alliance and the U.S.-South Korea alliance into the U.S.-Japan-South Korea alliance. This strategic objective, underpinned by institutionalized trilateral collaboration, signals a pronounced pivot toward collective confrontation. This transformative trajectory has propelled these nations into active roles within what is increasingly characterized as the "new cold war" against China, injecting fresh complexities into regional dynamics.

The strategic realignment unfolding in East Asia carries the potential to hasten the NATO-ization of the Asia-Pacific region, mirroring patterns of alliance-building and collective security mechanisms observed in other parts of the world. As the trilateral alliance takes shape, the specter of a united front against perceived common threats looms large, recalibrating the geopolitical calculus in this vital region. The repercussions of such a development are manifold, ranging from a negative impact on China's security environment to disruptions in the cooperation dynamics in East Asia.

Furthermore, this deepening military collaboration threatens to disturb the regional military balance and may even lead to a new round of arms races. While such cooperation is not unprecedented, the scale and depth of the collaboration have raised concerns. If these actions lead to the establishment of a trilateral military alliance, the potential implications for peace and stability in Northeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region are deeply worrisome. The growing military cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea against North Korea has the potential to escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula, intensifying the situation and necessitating crisis management measures. This prospect underlines the complexity and potential dangers associated with the alliance's actions in the region.

The alliance, which culminated in the Camp David Summit in August, has already led to an increase in military exercises near the Korean Peninsula, further deterring North Korea. Beyond Northeast Asia, the expanding military cooperation model now encompasses joint exercises between the Philippine Marine Corps and the U.S. Marine Corps, with the recent inclusion of Japan and South Korea. This increasing frequency of cooperation in the South China Sea hints at the U.S. intention to construct an "Asian version."

While the recent discussions among the defense chiefs of the United States, South Korea and Japan focused primarily on the Korean Peninsula, it is essential to acknowledge the broader implications of this alliance. In the context of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, this alliance is more than just a regional military coalition; it is a strategic move to assert American dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. This transition from bilateral ties to a trilateral bloc represents a significant shift in the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific, where great power competition is increasingly intense. The strategic alignment of these key players in the Asia-Pacific region prompts a critical examination of the potential consequences accompanying the evolution from cooperative efforts to a formalized military alliance. Such a shift carries inherent risks, injecting an element of heightened tension into an already delicate regional equilibrium.

Strategic intention of the U.S.

The U.S.' strategic intention is to reinforce the alliance structure by intensifying existing crises and generating further instability. It is clear that the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" is moving toward a fiercer great power confrontation. This reflects the challenge of U.S. strategic thinking, which often operates under the premise that plans cannot be formulated without the presence of an adversary – even self-created. It apparently seeks to strengthen its alliance structure by intensifying crises, thereby serving its broader strategic competition against China and Russia under the so-called Indo-Pacific Strategy.

While the White House speaks of controlling competition and avoiding conflict, its Indo-Pacific Strategy seems to be moving toward fiercer great power confrontation. This shift underscores a recurring issue in U.S. strategic thinking: the difficulty of formulating strategies without an identifiable adversary. The ongoing developments in the military cooperation between the U.S., Japan and South Korea are raising complex challenges in the Asia-Pacific region.

The peace and stability of Northeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region are at stake, and the wisdom of regional and global leaders will be instrumental in navigating these complex dynamics. It is incumbent upon regional and global leaders to prioritize diplomacy and dialogue over military escalation, in the pursuit of a more peaceful and stable Northeast Asia and Indo-Pacific region.

The implications of such extensive military cooperation – with the potential to be converted into an alliance – extend beyond the immediate participants, rippling through the broader geopolitical fabric. It necessitates a nuanced analysis of the geopolitical chessboard, considering the sensitivities of neighboring nations and the potential for unintended consequences. The careful calibration of diplomatic and strategic maneuvers becomes paramount to mitigate any adverse effects on the delicate balance that currently characterizes the region.

*Op-ed contributor based in Karachi, Pakistan