On Jan. 1, 2024, Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland to gain access to the Red Sea, sparking reactions from both Somalia and the international community. Somaliland declared its independence unilaterally on May 18, 1991, following the collapse of the Siad Barre regime in Somalia in 1991. However, Somaliland has not been recognized as a state by the international community. Therefore, Somalia has strongly opposed this agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland on the grounds that it violates international law and territorial integrity. In response to this crisis, international organizations like the African Union and the Arab League, as well as regional actors, condemned the agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, declaring it invalid under international law.
This crisis, which has emerged between the two countries, has added to long-standing tensions in the region, posing a significant potential threat to regional and international security. For instance, Ethiopia's construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River in 2011, which was planned to have an installed capacity of 5.15 gigawatts, had previously sparked major disputes with Sudan and Egypt. Despite these disagreements, Ethiopia began filling the dam in 2020 and subsequently started generating electricity for the first time in 2022, escalating tensions between Cairo and Addis Ababa.
As a result of these strained relations, Egypt has now also involved itself in the dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia over the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement. Following this deal, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud visited Egypt to seek support against Ethiopia, where he met with Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi. After their meeting, el-Sissi expressed unwavering support for Somalia against Ethiopia, and there were even rumors that Cairo might deploy troops to Somalia.
At Ethiopia's official request, Türkiye initiated mediation efforts to reduce the risk of potential armed conflict in this volatile region. Türkiye, which has been expanding its influence in Africa in recent years, has good relations with both Somalia and Ethiopia. Representatives of the two countries began talks in Ankara on July 2 under the coordination of Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. The first round of talks yielded no results, and the second round, initially planned for Sept. 2, was moved up to Aug. 12 but also concluded without agreement.
As tensions persist in the Horn of Africa, Israel, already entangled in conflicts in the Middle East, has now set its sights on destabilizing the Horn of Africa. Israel is seeking to establish relations with Somaliland because of its geo-strategic location and recent developments. In particular, given its proximity to threats from Iran and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Somaliland represents a valuable intelligence hub and potential base for joint operations for Israel. For these reasons, an agreement between Israel and Somaliland, along with possible recognition of Somaliland, could provide Israel with a critical ally in the Horn of Africa.
Israel’s interest in Somaliland also has economic motivations. Somaliland’s growing economy attracts investments from various countries, especially in sectors like agriculture, energy and infrastructure. Israel aims to develop cooperation with Somaliland, particularly in agriculture, and to enhance its influence in the region through Somaliland’s strategic location along major trade routes in the Gulf of Aden.
Another notable factor in the relationship between Israel and Somaliland is the role of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a mediator in the agreement. The UAE, which has close ties with both Israel and Somaliland, signed an agreement with Somaliland in 2017 to build the Berbera airport, located 300 kilometers south of Yemen. This agreement included a 30-year lease for a military base at the airport. Furthermore, in 2018, Somaliland authorities announced that they would establish a strategic partnership with the UAE in the field of security by training local security forces following the construction of the base.
In response to these developments, Somalia severed diplomatic ties with the UAE in April 2018 and prohibited the operation of numerous UAE-based companies within its territory. Concurrently, the European Parliament released a statement urging the UAE to desist from actions that could destabilize Somalia and the Horn of Africa and to respect Somalia's territorial integrity.
According to Emirates Leaks, the UAE will provide not only political support but also financial assistance for the Israeli base planned in Somaliland. The UAE’s support in this regard is aimed at increasing its influence around the Bab al-Mandab Strait, where the Yemeni conflict continues. After establishing its presence in Somaliland, the UAE intends to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa by investing in neighboring countries in collaboration with Israel.
The growing proximity between the UAE and Israel became more apparent in 2020 with the signing of the Abraham Accords. The Abraham Accords, endorsed by the U.S., were concluded on Sept. 15, 2020, with the objective of facilitating the normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries such as Bahrain and the UAE. Subsequently, Morocco and Sudan also became parties to these agreements, largely as a result of U.S. diplomatic efforts.
The objective of the U.S. and Israel in entering into these agreements was to enhance their influence over the Arab countries that had signed them. Additionally, Arab countries sought to expand their foreign policy maneuverability by cultivating Western support through their constructive relations with the U.S. and Israel. It can be posited that the UAE is attempting to establish itself as a regional power by bolstering its economic and military capabilities with the backing of the U.S. and Israel in the wake of the Abraham Accords.
Indeed, the UAE has significant expectations of cooperation in the fields of security and economic relations with the U.S. and Israel. In recent years, joint naval operations and even the production of new weapons systems have been discussed between the UAE and Israel. Besides, in 2022, Israel exported a range of advanced weaponry to the UAE, including sophisticated air defense systems. It is evident that the rationale behind this collaboration in the security domain between the two states is to enhance their collective military capabilities to confront potential shared threats in the region, such as Iran and the Houthis in Yemen.
The intensifying ties between the UAE and Israel have remained uninterrupted despite the ongoing Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Notwithstanding Israel's actions in the region, which have elicited a response from the international community, Emirati leaders persist in their engagement with Israel. Moreover, they have extended their joint defense strategies against regional threats to the Horn of Africa.
In conclusion, the increasing influence of Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the Horn of Africa has the potential to exacerbate existing crises and create new areas of instability in the region. The strategic partnerships they have established in Somaliland bolster Somaliland’s claims of independence, thereby undermining Somalia’s territorial integrity and complicating existing disputes between Ethiopia and Somalia.
Israel's moves to recognize Somaliland and the UAE’s efforts to strengthen its military presence in Berbera aim to exert control over an area close to Yemen and the Bab el-Mandab Strait, posing a threat to local populations' right to self-determination.
Additionally, Israel and the UAE's growing influence in this region intensifies disputes among countries like Egypt, Ethiopia and Somalia, threatening regional security. Despite the mediation efforts of actors like Türkiye, the strategic maneuvers of Israel and the UAE are weakening Somalia and Ethiopia’s ability to act independently, thus heightening the risk of conflict in the region and posing a serious threat to international security.
