As a country facing a demographic crisis in recent years, Russia feels the need to rethink its immigration policies more than ever. The aging population, declining birth rates, and the labor shortage caused by the war are posing serious challenges to the country's economic structure. In this respect, migrants have a crucial role in ensuring the continuity of the Russian economy and compensating for demographic gaps.
However, this role has become more complicated in recent years due to increasing anti-immigrant policies and security concerns. In November, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a series of laws tightening migration policies, including the confiscation of assets derived from illegal migration and requiring migrants to take Russian exams only through state institutions.
In addition, the State Duma has proposed a 10-point package of measures aimed at stricter control of migrants' language proficiency and purpose of arrival, including the introduction of spoken exams and video-recording of migrants being asked questions about their purpose of arrival. Head of the A Just Russia – For Truth political party (SRZP), Sergey Mironov, emphasizing the growing cooperation of some countries in Central Asia with NATO, says that migration has become a "hybrid weapon" against Russia and proposes stricter immigration policies, including canceling the right of migrant workers to bring their families to Russia and requiring them to live only in certain settlements.
Taking a religious approach to the issue, Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church states that the disproportionate replacement of the native population by migrants poses a serious threat to the cultural balance and Orthodoxy-based values of the Russian world.
All these considerations are potentially creating dissatisfaction among migrant workers and posing a long-term risk for Russia in terms of economic and demographic balances.
In 1991, the collapse of the Soviet Union caused economic imbalances in the former member states of the union, such as Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. In accordance with the USSR policy of production, countries were engaged in production in specific areas and production in some sectors was almost non-existent in the countries of the union. After years when materials and goods in basic fields such as industry and agriculture came from the USSR member countries, the inadequacy of the economic infrastructure in these countries encouraged migration. Today, the citizens of these three countries account for 87% of those entering Russia for work. In addition, 15% to 50% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of these countries consists of money transfers made by migrant workers from Russia. The main areas of work for migrant workers in Russia are construction, services, and manufacturing.
According to official data, the number of migrants without legal status in Russia has increased by 40% since the beginning of 2024, reaching 740,000, while nearly 1 million registered migrant workers left the country in the same period. This change goes hand in hand with the hardening of policies toward migrants. If sufficient projects are not made for the integration of migrants, this may lead to both economic and social problems. It is obvious that in the last months, the rising voices in the domestic market and the legal regulations are aimed at this purpose, but the harshness of the language used raises concerns among migrants.
The Russian economy is experiencing a recession due to sanctions, which is creating a contradictory situation in the labor market. Although the decline in the unemployment rate may superficially appear to be a positive change, it is, in fact, a consequence of the contraction in production and labor capacity. According to recent data, the unemployment rate in Russia stands at 2.4%, while in the Moscow region, it is at an all-time low of 0.9%. While average wages are rising due to the labor shortage, the unstoppable rise in interest and the dollar exchange rates are making economic imbalances even more apparent.
In the current situation, the migrant labor force is critical for economic sustainability. In Russia, migrants are indispensable in sectors such as construction, agriculture and industry, as locals do not prefer to work in sectors that require physical power or have harsh working conditions. Despite this fact, in some regions, work permit and patent fees for migrants have been increased by as high as 39.4%, resulting in higher costs for these workers. As of 2025, in some regions migrants are banned from working in areas such as health, education and transport; however, such regulations will not lead to the replacement of migrants by local people. In the long term, the shortage of personnel in Russia is likely to grow even more. According to research by the Higher School of Economics (HSE), one of the country's leading universities, it is estimated that there will be a deficit of about 2 million people in the labor market by 2030.
On the other hand, security concerns continue to shape migration policies. In November 2024, 20,000 illegal migrants were deported as part of the "Nelegal-2024" operation. Such measures demonstrate the relationship between economic necessities and security concerns.
The balance of need and dependence between Russia and migrants is on thin ice. Russia's migration policies require a proper analysis of the interdependence of both sides. While Russia, struggling with an aging population and declining birth rates, is in greater need of migrants, migrants are gravitating toward Russia due to economic difficulties in their home countries.
However, this interdependence is not sustainable unless it is supported by the integration of migrants. In the long term, language training programs, vocational training opportunities, and cultural integration projects could play key roles in increasing the contribution of migrants to society. Such initiatives would not only bring economic benefits but also contribute to reducing social prejudices. Furthermore, sectoral regulations need to be made more inclusive, and harsh regulations should be avoided against migrants. Otherwise, the loss of the labor force would pose a serious threat to the sustainability of the Russian economy.
Alternative solutions, such as the African Migrant Villages Project or labor migration from North Korea, which have been on the agenda in recent years, could be successful if cohesion between locals and migrants can be ensured. In other words, for these projects to have a permanent impact, long-term policies should be developed that gain the support of the local population and offer a rights-based approach to migrants. Otherwise, it will be inevitable that this labor force will turn to other routes.
Indeed, in recent years, European and Far Eastern countries have become more attractive for migrants coming from Central Asia for work. These countries stand out in this competition by offering regular working conditions and opportunities for educated workers. Skilled migrants, in particular, integrate more easily into these countries thanks to their knowledge of foreign languages.
Referring to the rising concern and complex situation in the labor market, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized that Russia needs migrant workers to achieve its economic goals, noting that Russia has a low population compared to its geographical location. However, the Kremlin's lack of clear directives continues to lead to uncertainty and disharmony in the implementation of migration policies.
