On Oct. 6, 2024, Tunisian President Kais Saied was reelected in a landslide victory that sent Tunisians back to the days of Arab tyrant regimes in the 1980s and 1990s. So far, no Western leader has officially congratulated him for his reelection, neither U.S. President Joe Biden nor French President Emmanuel Macron, his friend Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni or Joseph Borrell, the high representative of the EU Foreign Affairs Council. Unlike in October 2019, his presidential election marked a milestone in the eight years of institutional struggle, in the aftermath of the December 2010 Jasmine Revolt.

Chronologically, the Arab Spring and the change in the MENA region's political landscape started after Mohamed Bouazizi, an unemployed 26-year-old, protested government injustice and corruption by setting himself on fire outside a municipal office in the town of Sidi Bouzid in central Tunisia on Dec. 17, 2010. In spite of the political upheaval and the ensuing political, economic and financial turbulence, Tunisian people felt a ray of hope from their "Jasmine Revolt." However, the rest of the MENA region could not achieve the political and societal success Tunisians achieved in their Jasmine Revolt, and political parties and elites continued in their decline. A lack of trust in politics is apparent among the voters across the MENA region nowadays.

In Tunisia, a similar distrust was born out of Saied’s policies, writing off the political parties, the elite and Tunisian people who strongly believed in civility and hope as a way of salvation from dictatorship. His constitutional actions and political behavior have been disrespecting millions of men and women struggling for freedom, dignity and even one day, direct democracy. Tunisians are worried today about political instability and uncertainty. Hence, according to Tunisia's former Foreign Affairs Minister Rafik Abdessalem, there were no elections in Tunisia, it was rather a process of renewing allegiance to Saied, and the elections’ results were known in advance because of the political climate that took place in these elections was oppressive, including arrests of political leaders, bloggers, judges and others.

Tunisian exceptionalism

Saied, a former constitutional law professor, was elected in the fall of 2019, on the message of Jasmine’s Revolt scent and spirit as an independent candidate, supported by Tunisia's conventional political parties, notably the Ennahda party. He referred to his election victory in 2019 as a "new revolution." He still does not have a political party that he can rely on in Parliament or in the local municipalities. His being politically and ideologically "independent" has created political tensions and divisions, especially with the then-house speaker and leader of the Ennahdha Party, Sheikh Rashed al-Ghanouchi.

On July 25, 2021, Saied decided to dismiss Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi and freeze the MPs' legislative session, ending the "Tunisian exceptionalism." Unlike in other Arab countries where the military played a major role in politics, Tunisia saw political maturity, trust and exercise incarnated by the political and intellectual elite across the ideological and political spectrum. The first president of Tunisia, Habib Bourguiba, played a major role in this trend, despite his authoritarian style in ruling Tunisia for three decades (1956-1987).

A "soft" constitutional coup was orchestrated by Saied who could read between the lines of the fragile constitution. His aim was to put aside the Ennahda party, which supported his election process, limit its influence and ultimately corner the Islamists in the new Tunisia post-Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the second president of Tunisia. Saied used Article 80 of the 2014 Constitution, using the exceptional circumstances context. He implicitly enhanced the role of the military, which is a new political element in Tunisia politics to bring the military to the political arena. Even Bourguiba did not do this.

Fog of politics

In these blurry constitutional circumstances, Tunisia found itself on a dead-end. After a decade of democracy or at least a healthy process of participative democracy in the MENA region, Saied was now another authoritarian leader in the region, sacking legitimate MPs and governments, despite all the negative signs that both branches have been sending to the voters. Yet, his reelection did not ease the political impasse, which had terrible socio-economical repercussions on the voters. A political alibi was taken into consideration by him to discredit the opposition and the elite alike further.

On July 25, 2022, Saied organized a referendum for a new constitution that goes with his political agenda, a referendum to "correct" the Jasmine Revolt’s direction and goals. The referendum’s results showed a large victory for the yes vote (94%), with a low turnout (30%). In the Oct. 6, 2024 election, he was reelected as the president of Tunisia with 90.69% of votes, the Independent High Authority for Elections (ISIE) said, although low turnout reflected widespread discontent in the cradle of the Arab Spring. Saied won the elections by a landslide with 2.4 million votes but with a turnout of only 28.8% of nearly 10 million eligible voters. His imprisoned rival Ayachi Zammel received just 7.3%, and third candidate Zouhair Maghzaoui only 1.9%, ISIE head Farouk Bouasker said.

The low turnout confirmed the dialectic relations between the voters and the system, despite the rhetoric of the president. A large majority of the masses did not adhere to the president's populist discourse, which established a presidential system. The opposition on the other hand was insisting on the establishment of a Constitutional Court, and most probably the amendment of the Code on Local Authorities, ahead of the 2023 municipal elections after the Dec. 17, 2022, legislative elections.

Where is Tunisia heading?

Yet, Tunisians now have nothing to lose. They are still determined to fight for more freedom, economic prosperity and political stability. The success of the Tunisian uprising in 2010 was the result of societal homogeneity, the absence of religious and ethnic divisions, in addition to the military establishment's distance from political affairs so far. Also, it was the result of the political approach adopted by the Ennahda Movement, based on political consensus with its ideological adversaries and even the heavy price that the party has been paying for social cohesion and its leaders' attentiveness. Ennahda leaders argued that they were doing this for the sake of unity and stability, but analysts see this as confirmation of Ennahda’s political identity crisis in a hostile political environment nationally and regionally.

In sum, Tunisians feel that their dream has been evaporating. Youths still long for a better life and are crossing illegally to Italian shores. Years have passed and Tunisia is still struggling to implement a Constitutional Court that Saied promised to put in place to serve as a strong legal tool between the two state’s branches and a better "checks and balances" principle.

Saied seems content with getting more constitutional power and positioning himself in the new posture of Tunisia’s "strongman." Tunisia is now heading toward a populist dictatorial rule in the style of the former Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi. Saied seeks to consolidate the so-called grassroots system that is based on loyalists, while striking parties, human rights organizations and all civil society bodies. However, Tunisia will not surrender to Saied’s project and the struggle will continue.

Questionable legitimacy, harsh economic realities and migrants' cultural and societal challenges have heavily influenced Tunisians’ daily lives. Particularly COVID-19 and the ongoing Ukraine war had dire economic consequences. Two economic imperatives have pushed Saied's administration to kneel before the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditions and the EU migrants deal of 150 million euros ($162.77 million) paid to Tunisia, despite links to human rights violations. Yet, these conditions could provoke another wave of political uprising in the country as a result of the institutional instability that is hurting any peaceful political change, security and economic prosperity.