On June 23, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, declared a revenge attack on Moscow, saying that the Russian army had hit the Wagner camps with airstrikes, causing the death of about 2,000 Wagner militiamen. While the Russian Defense Ministry denied these allegations of Prigozhin, the Federal Security Service requested the arrest of the Wagner leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, called this incident treason and said that anyone who rebels against the army will be punished. Wagner remained indifferent to this threat and threatened that they would enter Moscow if Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia’s top general, Valery Gerasimov, did not surrender to them.

It is possible to say that this incident, which broke out on June 23, was the escalation of a monthslong conflict between the Russian army and Wagner. The Wagner Group, which is at the front with the Russian soldiers under the command of Shoigu and Gerasimov in Ukraine, has been suffering from the failures and inadequacies of the army for a long time.

The Wagner Group, which came to the Bakhmut region in Ukraine in August 2022, where the Russian soldiers were insufficient, took over the task and ensured control of the region. At the beginning of May, Prigozhin claimed that Shoigu and Gerasimov did not send ammunition to the front in Bakhmut, and therefore many Wagner militias lost their lives. He then threatened that if the situation continued like this, Wagner would overtake the Bakhmut region from the army. After these disagreements between Wagner and the army, an arrangement for gathering all paramilitary groups under the command of the Russian Defense Ministry came to the fore. Shortly after the discussions of this arrangement, Prigozhin started the revolt, saying that he already had 25,000 militia at his disposal. In this respect, a similarity can be established between the Wagner revolt in Russia and the power struggle between Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, chairperson of Sudan’s Sovereign Council, and his deputy Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti.

As it will be remembered, an arrangement came to the fore in Sudan to include the Rapid Support Force (RSF) paramilitary group under the command of Dagalo into the central army under the command of al-Burhan. In the other process, heavy clashes broke out between the forces of al-Burhan and Dagalo, who did not want to join the army and share the gains and power, and Sudan once again faced civil war.

On June 24, while the Wagner Group was advancing toward Moscow, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko persuaded Prigozhin to stop the tension. Prigozhin said he had returned to prevent the spilling of Russian blood. Then, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov announced that the case against Prigozhin would be dropped and the Wagner leader would be sent to Belarus.

Although the Wagner uprising was stopped this way before it escalated into a bloody civil war, there is great uncertainty about what will become of the Wagner Group and Prigozhin. This uncertainty is followed with concern by states such as Mali and the Central African Republic, which depend on the Wagner Group for their security, especially in Africa. As it is known, the Wagner Group penetrated various parts of Africa in a very short time after it was founded in 2014 and increased the Russian influence there. In this context, it is known that the Wagner Group, which is often described as the implementer of Moscow’s African policies, is also supported by the state. Especially after the 2014 annexation of Crimea, Africa has emerged as an important region for Russia to gain political and economic power, which was exposed to isolation in the international arena. At this point, the Russian presence in the regions where Western actors, especially France, lost their power, Russia's image started to rise rapidly with the security and stability promises given by Wagner.

Today, Wagner carries out various military, political and economic activities in continental countries such as Libya, Mali, Sudan, Central African Republic, Eritrea, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar and Algeria. The units affiliated with Prigozhin are engaged in high-income economic activities such as mining and the timber trade. It is thought that the activities in these countries are largely due to the personal ties of Prigozhin.

Possibilities

Various possibilities for the group’s activities in the African continent have been expressed after the Wagner Revolt. The strongest of these possibilities are:

- The continuation of Wagner’s activities in Africa under the leadership of Prigozhin

- Changing Wagner’s leadership command and structure and continuing its activities on the continent

- The takeover of Wagner’s activities, power and resources by Russian soldiers

- Takeover of Wagner’s activities, power and resources by other Russian private military companies

It is still unclear which of these possibilities will materialize. However, according to Wall Street Journal reports, after the crisis, Russian officials immediately went to countries where Wagner was influential, such as Syria, Mali and the Central African Republic, and began to hold high-level contacts there. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that the Wagner militia would continue its operations in Africa. On the other hand, it is not yet certain under whose command these militias will continue their duties. The militia was offered the opportunity to join the Ministry of Defense. However, it is known that the Wagner militias were paid much more than soldiers in the army. It seems very difficult for Moscow, whose economy is in a difficult situation due to the Ukraine War, to pay the same to the Wagner forces. Even if Wagner’s job opportunities in Africa and the expenses of the militia forces are covered as before, it is unknown whether Moscow will provide the previous logistics support to the company. At the time of writing this article, the news that the signboards at Wagner headquarters in St. Petersburg had been removed appeared in the media. When these developments are considered, the impression arises that there will be a change in the Wagner group.

Signals of continuing collaboration

The idea of running the Wagner event in Africa by a different company is also among the topics discussed. This idea seems to have been adopted by some African politicians as well. For example, Fidele Gouandjika, the security adviser to the Central African Republic’s President Faustin Archange Touadera, stated that the Wagner uprising was an internal matter of Russia and unimportant to them. He continued, "It is reassuring to see that nothing has changed. If Moscow decides to call them back and send us Beethoven or Mozart, we will get them." He gave the message that they would continue to cooperate with the Russians.

According to some experts, the Wagner revolt may serve to exculpate Putin from accusations that this company’s actions violated the law. Especially before the NATO meeting, which will be held on July 12, in which the activities of the Russians in Ukraine will be the subject, comments come to the fore that such a revolt, at least in Ukraine, provides an opportunity for Putin to get rid of his responsibilities against violations. On the other hand, there is another group of experts who say that Putin’s announcement that Wagner was paid approximately $1 billion from May 2022 to May 2023 by the Russian government reveals the concrete ties between the company and the state, and therefore Putin is responsible for Wagner’s actions.

As a result, it is understood that the Wagner Revolt will create significant changes in Russia-Africa relations. The Moscow Administration has made great gains in the continent through Wagner in the post-2014 period. However, there is a possibility that African leaders, who were affected by this environment of uncertainty, will turn to new military and security cooperation with other actors, such as France, China and even Israel, who want to increase their influence in the continent. It is also known that France, which has lost power in recent years against Russia, has recently held talks with African states with new cooperation offers. Israel, on the other hand, put forward the security and military issues as important tools in the process of normalization with the continental states after the Abraham Agreements. And China will be able to influence the military field in African states, with which it has strong political and economic ties through the private army companies it has developed in recent years.

In order to dissipate these clouds of uncertainty that descended on the relations between Russia and African states, the Russia-Africa summit to be held in St. Petersburg at the end of July has great importance. With the messages and new proposals he will present at this summit, Putin can clarify the ideas of African leaders who are worried about cooperation with the Russians in eliminating security threats.