The South Caucasus has long been a geopolitical tinderbox, a crossroads where global interests collide. Recent events have only underscored its strategic significance. In September 2020, Azerbaijan’s decisive military action resolved a long-standing frozen conflict, seemingly in line with international law. At first glance, this was a diplomatic success, a compromise brokered by regional and global powers. Yet, recent developments reveal a far more complex and volatile scenario beneath the surface.

Russia’s inability to support Armenia during the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War is well-documented. Hamstrung by both international and regional dynamics, Moscow found itself unable to act decisively. The situation deteriorated further after the Russo-Ukrainian War, with Russia heavily investing in its Western front. Sanctions imposed by the West have further strained Moscow’s resources, leaving Putin with limited room to maneuver. This shift in focus to Ukraine has opened a window of opportunity for some of Russia’s neighbors, with Azerbaijan seizing the moment to assert its military and political ambitions. Other countries, unprepared for this turn of events, were left feeling abandoned – Armenia foremost among them.

Following its defeat, Armenia has begun to re-evaluate its alliances. In a candid interview with Foreign Policy in May 2023, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan admitted that "relying on just one partner for security is a strategic mistake." This realization has prompted Armenia to seek new alliances, particularly with the West. A significant step in this direction was the agreement with the United States to conduct joint military exercises. The U.S. has even moved to establish an army complex in Armenia to modernize its military infrastructure and prepare it for future conflicts. The Eagle Partner exercises, held over the past two years, have been a direct result of this new strategic alignment. While the exact numbers remain unclear, it is estimated that around a thousand American soldiers are currently stationed in Armenia.

Extending hand of the U.S.

U.S. foreign policy is often likened to surfing in turbulent seas – balancing, adjusting and ultimately capitalizing on shifting currents. Throughout history, from the 1979 Iranian Revolution to the attempted coups in Cuba and the civil war in Somalia, the U.S. has adeptly navigated crises by supporting multiple sides and aligning with the eventual victors. This pragmatic approach is now playing out in the South Caucasus.

In a recent speech at the Carnegie Endowment, U.S. Ambassador Yuri Kim articulated America’s position with subtle yet powerful undertones. While presenting herself as a proponent of peace, her message was clear: the U.S. stands firmly with Armenia, recognizing "a window of opportunity to promote peace and stability in the region." She pointedly suggested that Armenia has a chance to break free from the isolation imposed by a "malign neighbor," alluding to Azerbaijan’s regional ambitions. This sentiment was also echoed by Michael Rubin, a prominent strategist, who argued in a January 2024 op-ed that the U.S. could bolster its influence in the South Caucasus by supporting Armenia. Rubin emphasized that this region lies at the heart of a new global order, where competition with China and Russia dominates U.S. foreign policy.

However, America’s strategy is not limited to supporting Armenia. It also carefully cultivates ties with Azerbaijan, aware of Baku’s strategic importance as a counterweight to Russian and Chinese influence in the region. Earlier this year, in discussions with Russia regarding the future of the Zangezur Corridor, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made it clear that this corridor is vital to Azerbaijan’s economic future and that any Russian interference would be unacceptable. Aliyev, acutely aware of Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine, knows that Azerbaijan’s actions do not require Moscow’s blessing – instead, Russia must secure Azerbaijani cooperation to maintain stability on its Eastern front.

In this delicate geopolitical dance, the U.S. is playing a double game. On the one hand, it provides material and ideological support to Armenia, helping it to distance itself from Russia’s sphere of influence, much as Georgia has done. On the other hand, Washington is careful not to alienate Azerbaijan, recognizing Baku’s potential as a bulwark against Chinese expansion towards the Caspian Sea.

Türkiye's balance policy

Türkiye’s foreign policy has always reflected the foundational principles of its republic. In its early years, Türkiye’s guiding mantra was "peace at home, peace abroad," a doctrine of stability that proved invaluable during the turbulent 1930s. Today, as Türkiye rises as a regional power, this principle is more relevant than ever.

Since the mid-2010s, Türkiye has pursued a proactive foreign policy, positioning itself as a hub of economic, political and diplomatic activity. Unlike in the post-World War II era, Türkiye now takes bold steps both at the negotiating table and on the battlefield. During the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Türkiye’s unequivocal support for Azerbaijan was a game-changer, altering the balance of power in the region. This active role has not only limited Russia’s ability to support Armenia but has also allowed Türkiye to secure a strategic corridor connecting Anatolia to Central Asia.

In today’s multipolar world, where centers of power are constantly shifting, control over trade routes is crucial. Economic gains remain important, but controlling key passages and linkages is even more vital in a post-pandemic world where production chains have been disrupted. If Azerbaijan can maintain its current advantage and the de facto status quo, Türkiye stands to extend its influence, emerging as a power center stretching from Europe to China. Moreover, projects like the Basra Development Route, which aims to connect Basra to Şanlıurfa, could enable Türkiye to construct a corridor linking Central Asia, the Middle East, Russia and Europe.

As a declining hegemon, the U.S. prepares for a new era of great power competition. Washington needs to control key trade routes and geopolitical chokepoints to counter China and its allies. This is why Armenia has become strategically important to the U.S., providing a potential leverage point over the Zangezur Corridor. Beyond material gains, the U.S. is also keen to prevent the rise of other centers of power, allowing it to focus on its primary adversary. In this context, Türkiye must continue its balanced foreign policy, embracing its role as an emerging center of power, similar to Janus in Roman mythology – the god of beginnings, gates, and transitions – who appears at pivotal moments. Considering Putin’s recent visits to Baku and Chechnya, Türkiye must recognize its moment and navigate these challenges with resolve and strategic foresight. It is the right time for Türkiye to step up and introduce its understanding of world order, which is a needed approach not only for Türkiye’s allies but also for the world itself, namely humanitarian and entrepreneurial foreign policy.