Red Sea geopolitical challenge amid Gaza conflict: Russia's impact
A Saar-6 corvette, the latest-generation warship which Israel is using for its naval defense system amid maritime threats from Yemen's Houthi rebels, is seen in waters in Eilat, Israel, April 16, 2024. (AP Photo)

'Corridor wars' highlight 21st-century power shifts, with Russia gaining advantages amid Western sanctions and the U.S. facing geopolitical risks, shaping global dynamics in the Red Sea region



As the world faces an increase in international conflicts, the significance of geopolitics is becoming more apparent with every passing day. The geopolitical location is a crucial source of power for all actors, regardless of their actual strength. This is true with Yemen and the Red Sea, which have emerged as one of the most notable regions in the world. Historically, too, the Red Sea has been a significant trade route, connecting the African continent on its western shores and the Middle East on its east. It is a gateway to the southern tip of Africa, making it a crucial region for maritime trade.

The opening of the Suez Canal during the Ottoman Empire further amplified the importance of this region since it resulted in shorter distances and reduced costs. The attempts made by the Houthis in the Red Sea to disrupt trade have garnered attention, but not all states view it as a threat. While the United States and Israel are their primary targets, China and Russia are perceived as powerful and friendly actors by the Houthis.

Fighting for corridors, geopolitics

Regarding geopolitics, the most critical issue that comes to mind is transportation in the economic sector of states. With the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there was a growing international search for alternative transportation methods for commercial goods, particularly energy resources, which Russia previously monopolized. One of the West's most extensive sanctions tools regarding its support for Ukraine has been the search for this route. This trend has become essential in expanding a state's power capacity and encouraging development, progress and empowerment.

International actors are now waging a war through these networks. As seen, especially in recent years, it has become a powerful tool to control and dominate foreign policy, and today, these "corridor or route wars" are the main hot spots in the area extending from the Middle East to Europe and from India to Ukraine. In this respect, actors with geopolitical control over transit routes provide significant advantages in terms of national power. This approach is compatible with the realist perspective.

Moreover, this issue was also observed in the 2023 Summer G-20 competition; U.S. President Biden attended the summit and announced an "historic" economic corridor connecting India, the Middle East and Europe, which some believe is a move against China's Road and Belt Initiative. The corridor facilitates the transportation of energy resources to Europe, and the U.S., Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), India, France, Germany, Italy and the European Union signed a Memoranda of Understanding to prepare an "action plan." However, the lack of financial commitment created a new geopolitical challenge at the G-20.

Red Sea, Russia

The Red Sea is facing attacks that target energy and global maritime transportation. The Houthi paramilitary group has increased attacks on commercial ships of Israeli origin since Nov. 19. Attacks are concentrated in the Horn of Africa and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the southwestern region of the Arabian Peninsula. The area is critical for commercial traffic and oil transportation, with the SUMED pipeline carrying crude oil to the north via Egypt, with a capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day. The Red Sea route is also known as a vital shipping link between Europe and Asia, carrying approximately 15% of the world's maritime traffic. The alternative is to go around the southern tip of Africa, which would add about 10 days to a typical container ship voyage, increasing costs and causing delays to customers. Ships that can continue to use the Suez Canal have a competitive advantage over their counterparts.

Since February 2022, Russia has been actively seeking to establish an alternative to the West in the international arena. Its focus on Africa is a pivotal part of this strategy. In addition to seeking new partnerships to counter the West's and NATO's self-encirclement policy in the security field, there is a growing discourse on regional and global partnership endeavors and cooperation. The significance of Western powers' withdrawal from African countries cannot be overstated, particularly in the context of the changing dynamics between Africa and Russia. As Western hegemony in Africa wanes, Russian influence is on the ascent.

Hence, Yemen and the Red Sea hold significant geopolitical importance for Russia. Russia has two critical policies in this region. Firstly, Russia is fostering deeper relations with Yemen against the West, which benefits the Russian economy. Secondly, Russia has geological allies i.e., the Houthis in Yemen. With the potential support of Russia, the economic power of the West will be indirectly weakened. It is essential to consider that Russia is not involved in or developing deeper relations with Yemen at the moment. Russia's role in the Yemen conflict differs significantly from its role in Syria and Libya. Although Russia has not become militarily involved in the Yemen conflict, it is not entirely out of the mix.

On the other hand, Russia and Yemen are growing a deeper relationship. In February 2024, the chairperson of the State Duma met with the prime minister of Yemen to discuss cooperation and regional security. Despite challenges, bilateral trade has increased by 90%, and the visit is expected to boost relations. This serves as a positive indication of the potential for continued growth and success in the relationship between the two countries, even amid challenging developments. In January, airstrikes conducted by British and American forces on Houthi targets raised initial concerns about prolonged conflict, with Russia openly expressing criticism of the actions. In February, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with Ahmad Awad bin Mubarak, the prime minister of the internationally recognized government of Yemen, in Moscow.

In addition to Russia, China also has an important influence in the region. The biggest indicator of this is the non-aggression policy followed by Houthis toward Russian and Chinese ships. While American and Israeli ships were under attack in the region, the Houthis announced that they would not attack Russian and Chinese ships and that the movements of these ships in the Red Sea were not under threat.

The attacks in the region reflect 21st-century power struggles and economic interests. As a result, what matters most in the context of corridor wars is the influence and support that can be created in the region rather than actual physical presence. The reflection of the policies followed by Israel in Gaza under U.S. support is that the West has hit trade security in the Red Sea. Russia creates areas of geopolitical advantage for itself within the shadow of Western sanctions, the result of which is economic gains. On the other hand, the U.S. faces tremendous geopolitical risks and struggles, especially in the Red Sea. Although it seems like a small example, its consequences will be felt much more clearly in the international arena, where corridor wars continue, with its advantages and disadvantages for all actors in the long run.