Natural disasters are one of the factors that negatively affect the quality of life on Earth. Disasters, which have various types depending on their sources, include meteorological events such as increased rainfall, floods, droughts, heat waves and cold waves due to the global issue of climate change; biological disasters such as pandemics; and geological disasters such as volcanic eruptions, landslides and earthquakes.

While disasters cause loss of life, they also result in significant financial losses. According to International Emergency Database (EM-DAT) 2022 data, approximately 370 disasters occurred annually over the past 20 years, resulting in a total of 1.3 million deaths and adversely affecting a population of around 4 billion. The financial loss caused by disasters has reached $4 trillion. Economic losses are four times higher in low-income countries compared to high-income countries. In upper-middle income countries, including Türkiye, according to the World Bank assessments, they are two times higher.

Undoubtedly, earthquakes are one of the most devastating and deadly disasters. According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) data, quakes accounted for 58% of the total deaths in the past 20 years, meaning that earthquakes caused six out of 10 casualties.

Governments and authorities are increasing efforts to mitigate and prevent the destructive impacts of natural disasters. Particularly after the 1960s, the global approach to the issue has accelerated. The first 10-year plan for disaster risk reduction was implemented in 1990, followed by the "Yokohama Strategy" (1994-2005) and the "Hyogo Framework for Action," which aimed to enhance the resilience of nations and communities to disasters (2005-2015). Finally, in 2015, the "Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction" (2015-2030) was established to outline the steps to be taken and measures to be implemented to prevent damages and reduce the impact of natural disasters, aligning with the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set for 2030.

While the number of disasters has been continuously increasing since the 1950s, there has been a slight decrease in the 2000s when the "Yokohama-Hyogo Action Plans," which include prevention and mitigation activities on a global scale, were effectively implemented. However, despite this numerical decline, the impacts of these disasters have increased due to factors such as population growth and urban expansion. The affected population and financial losses have seen an upward trend.

World faces quake threats

There are three major earthquake belts in the world: the first is the Pacific "Ring of Fire," where 90% of global earthquakes (and 81% of severe quakes) occur. Countries like Chile, Japan and Mexico are located in this belt. The seismically active second belt is Mediterranean-Alpine-Himalayan, which includes Türkiye, and the third and final belt is known as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.

The deadliest recorded quake in history was the Shaanxi earthquake in China in 1556, resulting in the death of 830,000 people. This devastating earthquake was classified as a magnitude IX (9) on the Mercalli scale. Another destructive quake was the Tangshan earthquake in China in 1976, causing 240,000 to 655,000 deaths, making it the deadliest quake of the 20th century.

The largest recorded quake occurred in Chile in 1960, with a magnitude of 9.4-9.6, while the 9.2 magnitude quake known as the Great Alaska Earthquake in 1964 is also among the most destructive disaster.

Among these mega quakes, the deadliest was the 9.1 magnitude quake in the Indian Ocean in 2004, known as the Sumatra earthquake. It caused the death of 280,000 people. The energy released during this earthquake was equivalent to 1,500 Hiroshima atomic bombs. In total, it was equivalent to 550 million Hiroshima atomic bombs or the energy consumption of the U.S. in 2005, which is equivalent to 370 years of energy consumption for the U.S.

Land of disasters: Türkiye

Türkiye sits in the Mediterranean-Alpine-Himalayan Belt, which is one of the world's major fault lines and the second most earthquake-prone region on Earth. Looking at the recent quarter-century history, earthquakes that occurred in cities such as Gölcük, Düzce, Bingöl, Van, Izmir, Elazığ and Kahramanmaraş have not only claimed thousands of lives but also caused extensive damage.

On the other hand, being situated in the Mediterranean Basin, which is one of the areas most affected by the global issue of climate change, increases Türkiye's vulnerability to disasters and leads to an increase in the number, intensity and impact of disasters. Some of these disasters include intense rainfall-induced floods in northern regions, droughts in southern and inland areas, the largest forest fires in the nation's history caused by waves and the marine mucilage (sea snot) phenomenon that has affected the Marmara Sea.

The impact of disasters on the economy is also significant. Considering data from the past 60 years, the direct or indirect effect of disasters on the economy corresponds to 3% of the gross domestic product (GDP), and the economic losses caused by disasters between 1980 and 2018 exceeded $26 billion.

As in the rest of the world, quakes have the most destructive impact on natural disasters in Türkiye. According to the Turkish Disaster Data Bank (TABB), a total of 100,000 lives have been lost in the country due to disasters over the past 120 years. Unfortunately, half of these casualties occurred in only two major quakes. The first one was the 1939 Great Anatolian quake, also known as the Erzincan quake, which claimed the lives of 33,000 people. The second one was the Marmara quake on Aug. 17, 1999, resulting in 18,000 deaths.

According to TABB, 108,000 buildings were demolished, and a total of 1.3 million others were damaged, including 600,000 heavily damaged ones, in other words, rendered unusable.

Feb. 6 tremors

Just as the effects of the consecutive quakes in Izmir and Elazığ in 2020 were still being felt, Türkiye woke up on the morning of Feb. 6 to an unprecedented disaster that affected 11 provinces.

The quakes on Feb. 6, 2023, have been recorded as one of the most devastating disasters in Turkish history. Especially the earthquakes measuring 7.7 and 7.6, which occurred within nine hours of each other, were considered rare quakes on land. Being on land and close to the surface, these quakes, categorized as shallow earthquakes, demonstrated characteristics that increased the destruction and affected area, in addition to the length of the ruptured fault and the long duration of shaking, which lasted up to two minutes.

According to the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD), the energy released due to the earthquake was greater than 2,000 times that of the Hiroshima atomic bomb, thus surpassing the energy release of the 9.1 magnitude Sumatra quake.

According to the AFAD, on Feb. 6, tremors impacted approximately 15 million people. So far, more than 50,000 people have lost their lives, and over 107,000 others have been injured.

Numerous buildings have collapsed, and many others have been damaged. In addition, significant damage has occurred to the infrastructure of cities, particularly vital water, wastewater, and energy transmission lines, which have also been affected by this major disaster.

As a result of the earthquakes, significant financial losses have occurred, and according to assessments by international organizations such as the World Bank and the evaluations of the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, the impact of the disaster on the country's economy has reached $100 billion.

After 1950, the migration to cities revealed the housing stock issue as the supply demand balance could not be maintained. As a result, people took matters into their own hands and started informal settlements known as "gecekondu" in Turkish. To prevent this, a new law was enacted as the first measure. In the '80s, the Housing Development Administration (TOKI) was established to ensure housing construction by the public sector, but its impact remained limited.

After the 1999 quake, new standards were developed for constructing quake-resistant housing. During this period, Türkiye also introduced compulsory earthquake insurance known as the Natural Disasters Insurance Institution (DASK) among the public for the reconstruction of quake-damaged areas.

In the 2000s, steps toward urban transformation increased. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced that urban transformation would take place in the country at the cost of losing power, and the publicized urban transformation law, also known as "Law No. 6306," was put into effect and declared as "mobilization." Unfortunately, the mobilization was not achieved the desired success.

However, this issue is now a matter of life and death for Türkiye, which has become a disaster-prone region. It is not a subject that can be bypassed with short-term politics. It is a non-partisan issue like the environment and climate.

In 2018 with the introduction of the presidential system, a series of innovations took place. TOKI and local administrations were placed under the Environment and Urbanization Ministry, reducing bureaucracy and accelerating progress.

The new restructuring quickly yielded results. Despite the challenges, many housing and commercial buildings damaged in various disasters, such as the Manavgat forest fire, the Giresun Dereli floods, and the Izmir and Elazığ quakes, were rebuilt and delivered to the rightful owners in a short period. Projects such as "My New Home," "My New Workplace," and "Half of the Transformation Are on Us" were developed to expedite the transformation process.

Despite all the difficulties, in the past 20 years, the transformation of 3.4 million houses, including 1.2 million through TOKI, has been achieved, and more than 10 million new homes have been constructed, providing safe living spaces for citizens.

Period of construction, revival

The Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change is actively involved in the process of rebuilding and revitalizing resilient cities after disasters. Over the next year, a total of 319,000 units will be completed, including 143,000 rural-type housing units and 507,000 units in central areas, all of which will be delivered to their rightful owners. The government's determination and sincerity are evident in completing some rural-type housing units in the Nurdağı district of Gaziantep just 76 days after the major disaster.

In addition to housing, safe buildings will be built for social facilities, education, health, commerce and public services. Infrastructure and superstructure facilities will also be developed to ensure integrity.

Another danger that should not be forgotten is the climate crisis right on the horizon. The destructive effects of climate change are increasingly felt with each passing day, including the spread of heat waves, increased periods of drought, the evident risk of mega forest fires, and disruptions in the food supply chain, particularly in agricultural production. Therefore, we must develop ourselves and strengthen the infrastructure to combat and adapt to climate change.

Türkiye has a very old building stock, with 6.7 million housing units urgently needing transformation, including 1.5 million in the megacity of Istanbul alone. This situation necessitates urgent transformation.

Furthermore, one of the 2030 U.N. SDGs is sustainable cities. Turkish cities should not only provide shelter but also be self-sufficient in terms of transportation, education, health care and economic aspects. At this point, we must first address urban transformation and the holistic transformation of cities.

To ensure resilience against disasters, a significant and important step has been taken, together with previous measures. The "National Risk Shield Model" developed under the responsibility of the Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Ministry has been initiated. The model involves working groups, including experts from various fields, and aims to minimize risks related to the ground by conducting more delicate studies such as soil surveys and micro-zoning. Considering environmental factors, priorities will also include promoting bicycle transportation, zero waste projects, using clean energy and regional heating systems to achieve the goal of net-zero emissions by 2053.

Türkiye will be prepared against any disaster, calamity or threat with the "risk shield" model, which prioritizes comprehensive risk management. In addition, efforts will be made to rebuild and revitalize cities with horizontal architecture in harmony with their history, culture and sociology. Thus, in the "Century of Türkiye," which embodies sustainability, development, values, science and the future, we will boast resilient cities as part of the 2053 net-zero targets.

*Deputy Minister of the Republic of Türkiye's Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Ministry, chief climate change envoy

**Environment and Urban Planning Specialist