Billboards and banners adorning the streets of the northwestern city of Bursa announce his visit to the city as the picture of a bespectacled, beaming man accompany his itinerary. He stops by the stairs of an Ottoman-era mosque where he performs Friday prayers and greets a small but fervent crowd of supporters, shouting “Başkan Imamoğlu.”
"Başkan" has more than one meaning in Turkish. It can be an address for a mayor, a chairperson, or the president of the country. Ekrem Imamoğlu is the first and from the look of it, wants to be the third one as well.
The Mayor of Istanbul, Türkiye’s most populated city, has long been discreet about his ambitions for the country’s highest office. Yet, he is apparently barnstorming ahead of May 14 elections. Make no mistake, he did not announce his candidacy, neither the six-party alliance, known as the "table for six," he openly supports, nominate him. But as the opposition alliance procrastinates the process to declare its candidate, Imamoğlu appears warming up more to the idea of running for the presidency.
Though he is no strange to visiting cities, mostly those run by opposition parties, it is the first time that Imamoğlu launched such an encompassing, nationwide tour, covering some 15 cities.
His first stopover last month was Kastamonu in the north, run by a mayor from the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), an ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party).
Speaking at the opening ceremony of a marketplace in the city’s Daday district – run by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) – partly funded by the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (İBB), Istanbul Mayor answered the question every political pundit is curious about: What is he doing in Kastamonu? But the answer was as political as ever. Pointing out to the large number of Kastamonu expatriates living in Istanbul, he said he was there simply “to help” the hometown of Istanbul residents. Though he was tight-lipped about potential candidacy, a song playing out at the event indicated otherwise.
“Imamoğlu, brave voice of the people, the destination of his journey is democracy,” read the lyrics of the song apparently composed for the occasion. And probably, he chose to abstain from openly declaring his ambitions in the presence of Seyit Torun, a vice chair of CHP, which picked him as a candidate for the mayor’s post in 2019. After all, on the same day, Imamoğlu visited Kastamonu, another CHP vice chair, Veli Ağbaba, stressed that their presidential candidate was the party’s leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu unless the six-party alliance decides otherwise.
For now, Imamoğlu will have to hide under the guise of “opening ceremonies” in cities he visited despite the politically charged atmosphere wherever he goes. He obviously avoids incurring the wrath of his party that propelled him to the top office in Istanbul, from Beylikdüzü, a far-flung boomtown on the city’s European part. Taking over from an AK Party mayor in the remote district, a 52-year-old businessperson quickly rose in the list of favorite mayors of CHP he officially joined only in 2008. His meteoric rise to the office of IBB has more to do with an eclectic electorate he garnered votes from, including those from other opposition parties, rather than his affiliation with CHP, which never won Istanbul mayoralty since 1994, the year President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won the mayoral vote.
Although he claimed Recep Tayyip Erdoğan “sees him in his dreams” after the latter’s repeated criticism of Imamoğlu’s tenure as mayor, it appears that it is Imamoğlu himself following in the footsteps of the veteran politician. Indeed, some political pundits were quick to draw parallels to Erdoğan when a court handed down a jail term to Imamoğlu last year in an insult case. Erdoğan himself was jailed for reciting a poem years ago. Just like Erdoğan, at least when he arrived in Istanbul from a prison in northwestern Türkiye in 1999, Imamoğlu was greeted by an enthusiastic crowd outside the municipality building when the court announced the verdict. Yet, Imamoğlu was not sent to prison as an appeals process is underway. But this “parallel story” began in a strange way for Imamoğlu. Instead of his party’s chair, Meral Akşener, head of Good Party (IP), another member of the six-party alliance, stood next to a smiling Imamoğlu who appeared more pleased with the verdict than worried.
But parallels end here. The AK Party, under the leadership of Erdoğan, dominated Turkish politics for more than two decades, often with landslide election victories. Imamoğlu won two municipal elections so far and though he tries to carve out an image of a man of the people like Erdoğan, he is still a rookie in politics, except for his knack for electrifying the crowds with his oratory skills. This might be an advantage in a party led by a gaffe-prone retired bureaucrat like Kılıçdaroğlu.
Imamoğlu, in the meantime, faces bigger obstacles, namely, infighting among the members of the opposition bloc. The bloc tries to hide their disagreements over several issues, claiming it happens in democratic alliances but as the clock is ticking, it will be harder to put aside their differences in the race against a powerful contender like Erdoğan. As a matter of fact, some chairs of opposition parties separately announced their intention to run for the presidency if others agree while the idea of a candidate outside the chairpersons apparently scrapped for the time being.
The mayor, on the other hand, is already included in pre-election surveys asking voters who they would vote for if the elections were to be held earlier. Indeed, some surveys show he trails behind Kılıçdaroğlu while Erdoğan, at least in some surveys, leads. A recent survey by Optimar research company, however, shows he is one point below Mansur Yavaş, mayor of the capital Ankara from IP. Yavaş, initially viewed as a potential candidate, remains quiet for now on candidacy and prefers running his city, instead of touring Anatolia like Imamoğlu. But his party seems more interested in embracing Imamoğlu, as Meral Akşener literally did when the court ruling in the insult case was announced. Akşener barely hid her support for Imamoğlu earlier when she said in an interview that her pious sister saw “rabbi yesir” in Imamoğlu’s face, using a Turkish expression with religious undertones for auspicious people.
Akşener has also likened Imamoğlu to Ottoman sultan Mehmed the Conqueror (of Istanbul) after the latter’s election victory. Praises aside, Akşener openly said last year that her party would not say “no” to Imamoğlu or Yavaş as a candidate. Garnering support of CHP and IP may be good enough for Imamoğlu but there is an altogether different group of supporters for the Istanbul mayor: Those disillusioned with the campaigns of both parties. This group is largely limited to social media users for now and appears marginal although it is impossible to know whether they are those who carry Imamoğlu to the upper ranks in the preelection surveys.
Still, Imamoğlu has a long way to go, in such a short time. He might be connecting with people better than Kılıçdaroğlu, the most obvious candidate of the opposition. But if CHP voters, which make up the largest electorate group after the AK Party proved one thing in the past two decades, it is the chairperson that suits the post best, regardless of his successive defeats to the AK Party. IP is the next strongest party in the opposition bloc, but Akşener will either need the unanimous support of left-wing CHP voters (including those opposing her nationalist views) or throw her full support to Imamoğlu to divide the vote and secure her party’s standing in the Parliament.
*News editor at Daily Sabah
